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Our life and society in Asia strongly rely on the seasonal variability associated with the Asian monsoon and the interannual climate variability such as El Niño. It is uncertain whether recent changes in our climate system are a manifestation of its natural variability or its response to anthropogenic forcing. Even if the natural variability and anthropogenic forcing are both contributing to the changes, their relative importance is yet unknown. Certainly, what is essential for sustainable development of our society are scientific and technological advances in observing and predicting those climate changes that enables to take early measures at various levels from policy makers to individuals.

To meet these societal needs, Climate Variations Research Program aims at deepening our understanding of the mechanisms of the climate variations through our basic scientific research and model improvement effort on an international basis and thereby contributing to the improvement of prediction skill of those variations. In particular, we focus on climate variations from seasons to decades and related oceanic phenomena in the Asian-Pacific sector including the Indian Ocean, polar and subpolar oceans. To understand fundamental processes of those climate variations, our research is conducted using ocean and atmosphere models of various degrees of freedom as well as various analysis methods. We also conduct predictability and application studies on the influence of the global climate variability upon regional atmospheric and oceanic phenomena.

Among those phenomena is the well-known climate regime shift in the northern North Pacific, Indian Ocean Dipole events, decadal modulation of El Niño /Southern Oscillation, intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Waves and oceanic meridian circulation changes. Clarifying relations among processes with different temporal and spatial scales is also an important objective of the program. This program will also activate interaction between those models and a next-generation high performance computing system.

Climate Variations Model Group
Climate Variations Diagnostics Group
Climate Variations Predictability Group
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