Development of Integrated Earth System Models |
Dr. Matsuno will explain the background and the future plan of the project to predict global warming. |
Taroh Matsuno (Director of Integrated Modeling Research Program) |
The Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC) has been established with its mission "towards the prediction of global change" and is now entering into the later half of the ten-year long Phase‡T. We had an interim evaluation by outside reviewers last year to have their advice for our future research. The committee strongly recommended that FRSGC should start developing integrated earth system models by collaboration of research programs of FRSGC.
The word "Global Change" - of which prediction is the goal of FRSGC - does not merely mean environmental change on global scale. Rather, in researchers' recognition, it means changes which take place in all parts of the earth's surface, namely atmosphere, ocean, land and biosphere, and in their all aspects, (physical, chemical, and biological), as well as the changes occur simultaneously by affecting each other. These characteristics are observed in examples of global change such as global warming and El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Therefore, FRSGC's task is to understand such "Earth System", as a single entity which cannot be divided into pieces and to make prediction of its change possible.
However, it is apparent that it is impossible to understand and model the Earth System as a whole from the beginning. So, our strategy to achieve the final goal is first to start from partial understanding and modeling of the Earth System by decomposing it into more or less independent parts. For this end, we have separated research programs, namely; Climate Variations, Hydrological Cycle, Global Warming, Atmospheric Composition, and Ecosystem Change, and have been studying these subjects in respective research programs. In addition to aforementioned programs, FRSGC has a program of "integrated modeling" to integrate findings and research results in all programs to make a system model.
Yet so far, the program's activity has been limited to development of higher resolution, next generation models of the atmosphere and ocean, and did not make an attempt to develop "integrated model."
Now by finishing the earlier half (5 years) of the Phase‡T, substantial knowledge are accumulated in each program. We have a feeling that now, integrated modeling has come into our scope. Thus, it was very timely that the MEXT project was announced. Fortunately, our proposal for development of integrated Earth System Models was accepted and we are about to start the project.
As a matter of fact, movement toward Earth System Modelings is advancing gradually over the environmental science community in the world. But it is well recognized that the Earth System Modeling is still at infant stage and some people even say it is too premature. However, currently, society wants to know possible future state of the Earth's environment, not limited to global mean temperature rise. In response to these increased and urgent societal needs, we, FRSGC, whose objective is to predict global change phenomenon, will tackle this important and difficult problem, as a big challenge worthy to make all effort.
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