The Frontier Research Center for Global Change has taken charge of "global change prediction research", one of the main goals of the Independent Administrative Institution, of the Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology. Its aim is to "undertake set missions by means of fundamental research and development on the ocean in response to requests from institutions and society". Here, we outline the mid-term plan for each research program in the following sections.

Research on Climate Variation
We plan to gather findings on climate variation and related phenomena occurring in the ocean and atmosphere in the areas of the Pacific, Indian, and Arctic Oceans, as well as Asia, and to develop models, and conduct numerical experiments. Specifically, we will examine and conduct research into the following:

a. Oceanic/atmospheric phenomena, such as seasonal variation on scales of several years and from one to several decades, will be analyzed in relation to past climate data.
b. The predictability of major climate variation phenomena and the effects of climate variation in different parts of the world; in addition, numerical experiments will be conducted on multiple coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models using the "Earth Simulator".
c. As part of our international collaboration initiative, we plan to study the features and predictions of climate variation in the Asian/Pacific region, and to conduct fundamental research into simplifying the use of observation data and model output, both of which have increased rapidly in recent years.

Research on the Hydrological Cycle
Using observation data, we aim to elucidate various physical processes related to hydrological cycle variation, and to develop a process model. Based on this work, hydrological cycle models on river/region and global scales will be developed. Specifically, we aim to:

a. Undertake research into changes in the hydrological cycle on a global scale and in related physical processes, such as land area hydrological processes, wide-area cloud/radiative processes, and atmospheric boundary layer processes, using observations of the effects of evaporation, precipitation, snow cover, snow melt, and effluent from rivers on ocean/land surface/vegetation over the past few decades. In addition, using models, we will study the hydrological cycle on a spatial scale to examine regional and global changes, as well as on a temporal scale, to examine seasonal changes and year-to year variation.
b. Develop a convective cloud model with a spatial scale ranging from ten to several tens of kilometers that incorporates the formation of cloud particles, raindrops, and snowflakes, and their radiative effects, in order to study the hydrological cycle in an atmospheric mode.
c. Accumulate findings about the elementary processes of the hydrological cycle specific to regions with characteristic climates, such as tundra and semiarid regions. Based on our findings, a hydrological cycle model on land will be developed.

Research on Atmospheric Composition
In order to understand the effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants emitted in the Asian region on climate and the environment, while considering mass transfer between the ocean and atmosphere, we plan to study the interaction between atmospheric composition and climate variation, as well as air pollution on a global scale, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, and we aim to estimate greenhouse gas emission/absorption. Specifically, we will:

a. Study the interaction between atmospheric composition and climate variation, due to aerosols and ozone, by incorporating an aerosol formation process into a chemical transport model. To evaluate the importance of ozone as a greenhouse gas, radiative forcing from 1900 to 2100 will be calculated.
b. Undertake research into the intercontinental transport of ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols using a global chemical transport model to provide basic data for studying long-range transboundary air pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.
c. Estimate the distribution of emission/absorption to provide basic data for studying global warming measures, based on the Kyoto Protocol, by performing the inverse operation of transport processes, and by incorporating observation data for carbon dioxide, etc. into an atmospheric model.
d. Evaluate seasonal changes in air pollutants, transport/chemical-feature variation, and balance on a regional scale, based on the emission inventory, incorporating observations of air pollutants in Central and East Asia.
e. Develop a system to predict air pollution, such as ozone, etc. by integrating chemical transport models on city to global scales.

Research on Ecosystem Change
We aim to develop a model to predict/evaluate how climate/environment variation affects the functions/structure of oceanic/terrestrial ecosystems, mainly in the Asia-Pacific region; the model will also predict/evaluate how changes in ecosystems affect climate and the environment. Moreover, in order to develop models, observation data for broad ecosystem areas will be analyzed and parameterized. Specifically,

a. to evaluate the contribution of the oceanic ecosystem to global warming and climate change, we will develop an oceanic ecosystem/carbon cycle model;
b. to evaluate the contribution of the terrestrial ecosystem to changes in global greenhouse effect gases, etc., we will develop a terrestrial ecosystem/carbon cycle model; and
c. to evaluate the effects of global climate changes on the distribution and diversification of vegetation, we will develop a global vegetation variation model based on a population level.
d. In addition, we will accumulate findings on the wide-area distribution of functions and the structure of oceanic/terrestrial ecosystems by analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations, and incorporate the results into the models as parameters.

Research on Global Warming
In order to understand and predict the mechanism of global warming, we intend to develop a climate model and conduct global warming experiments and paleoclimate reproduction experiments using the "Earth Simulator". The experiment results will be presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Moreover, we will research environmental change in the arctic, where global warming phenomena are conspicuous. Specifically, we plan to

a. develop a climate model with a resolution of 25-km and 100-km horizontal grids for the ocean and atmosphere, respectively, and conduct global warming experiments;
b. analyze the results of numerical experiments using an atmosphere model with a resolution of about 20-km on a horizontal grid that can represent regional changes;
c. conduct numerical experiments to reproduce the paleoclimate of the last glacial period and the postglacial climatic optimum period with a climate model in order to study the mechanism of paleoclimate and to evaluate the performance of the climate model; and
d. accumulate findings about environmental changes specific to the Arctic, such as the formation of sea ice and carbon cycle owing to ice algae, and to develop a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice climate model and an ice sea area ecosystem material cycle model in order to improve global warming prediction, with international collaboration.

Developing a Cross-cutting Model and Integrated Earth System Model
We plan to combine the results of individual research programs and develop an integrated, advanced global environmental system model that integrates ocean, atmosphere, land, vegetation, snow ice, and other factors.
In order to represent global environmental variation in weather changes, such as heavy rain, in more detail, we will develop atmosphere and ocean models with dramatically improved resolution using the "Earth Simulator".
We will develop a data assimilation system to analyze oceanic observation data using an ocean model. Specifically,

a. In order to contribute to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, based on climate models, we plan to develop a global carbon cycle model that integrates ocean and land carbon cycle models, and an integrated global environment system model that includes the oceanic/atmospheric compositions and ecosystem variation. With these models, we will conduct global warming experiments, including those focused on the feedback effects of climate changes on the carbon cycle.
b. In order to conduct global warming experiments and to predict climate changes, we plan to develop coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate models of various resolutions, primarily, a 100-km horizontal grid for both the ocean and atmosphere, to deal with physical processes.
c. A prototype of an eddy-resolving world ocean cycle model with a horizontal grid of 10 km or less for all the oceans, and a prototype of a global cloud-resolving atmospheric model with a horizontal grid of 5 km or less, will be developed.
d. Based on ocean data obtained from satellites, buoys, etc. we will develop a four-dimensional data assimilation system to prepare consistent data through models.
e. In order to verify the performance of models, such as the resolution and reproducibility of the global cloud resolving atmospheric model and global carbon cycle model, we will study methods of utilizing satellite data on global precipitation, made at three-hour intervals, and the global distribution of carbon dioxide.