Julia Hargreaves 


I am group leader of the Uncertainty Estimation Research Group, and senior scientist  in the paleoclimate group, which is part of the global warming division of RIGC (formerly FRCGC), based in Yokohama, Japan. My email address is jules@jamstec.go.jp

Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project:

JUMP logo

In April 2009 JUMP went public in Japan, ceasing to be a covert underground operation known only to the outside world. Our JAMSTEC chapter now officially exists as the Uncertainty Estimation Research Group in RIGC (the institute formerly known as FRCGC)! The up to date list of members of JUMP can still be found at our researchpages.net site. 

[The history: In April 2007 James and I got some funding through two different  five-year Japanese projects, "S5" funded by the Ministry of Environment and "Kakushin" funded by MEXT. In order to aid management of these projects we have invented JUMP, the Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project or, our answer to QUMP! Through this project there is now a small team of five people (James, jules, Kaori Tachiiri, Toru Miyama and Shigenori Murakami) working on uncertainty related issues at FRCGC with wider collaborative links to both the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Tsukuba and the Center for Climate System Research in Kashiwa, which is part of the University of Tokyo.]


Research Interests:

From reading the websites of many climate scientists, I have come to the realisation that it is normal to write under "Research Interests" not what one has done, but rather what one fancies oneself doing. I am therefore emboldened to write that I am interested in not only the understanding of past climate change, but also in the probabilistic prediction of future climate, and especially in the link between these two. This work involves quantitative/statistical analysis of data and models, data assimilation, and proxy modelling. The extend to which I am really involved or have actually made progress in these areas is left as a task for the discerning reader of this webpage.

In my current work I use two different models:
    The CCSR/NIES/FRCGC GCM called MIROC is a state of the art climate model, run on the Earth Simulator. A range of resolutions of the same version of MIROC are available which is very fortunate for us, since for computational reasons, we generally require a lower resolution for our analyses. Recently, MIROC-LITE, an EMIC version of this model, with all the MIROC components but with an energy balance atmosphere has been being developed, and we hope to use this to explore longer term aspects of the climate system.

    The GENIE model is a lower resolution model, with more simplified physics than MIROC. The part I have been most involved with recently is data assimilation of the biogeochemical components, work conducted in collaboration with Andy Ridgwell.  
Whenever I come across a really difficult mathematical problem I call up my pet mathematician.

2008 The EGU journal, Geoscientific Model Development:

Frustrated with the un-reproduceable state of much work published using complex computer models, we (Dan Lunt, Rolf Sander, Ian Rutt, Andy Ridgwell, me and James) decided one day to try to start a new journal where models, and technical modelling advancements and MIPs could be properly published, including source code and manuals. Several other people also thought this was a good idea and thus a new orange on-line EGU journal was formed:

"Geoscientific Model Development (GMD) is an international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of the description, development and evaluation of numerical models of the Earth System and its components."

2007 Climate of the Past Special Issue:

The special issue for  Climate of the Past called Modelling Late Quaternary Climate is now completed and available free to all on-line [discussion, final]. A hard-copy version has been produced, and it is still possible to order a copy by emailing Nadine Deisel. This speicial issue arose from the EGU Climate session, "Modelling the Climates of the Late Quaternary" held at the 2006 meeting in Vienna.


 Papers:

Submitted:
  • J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Understanding the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, submitted to Journal of Climate, May 2010

  • J.C. Hargreaves, Skill and uncertainty in climate models, In press WIRES, (submitted Nov 2009, accepted May 2010)

  • Tachiiri, K., Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D., Oka, A., Abe-Ouchi, A. and Kawamiya, M.: Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models （submitted, Dec 2009, currently in final response at GMD) [link]

Published/in Press:

2010

  • J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble, GRL (submitted and accepted, December 2009, published Jan 2010) [pdf] [link]

  • T. Yokohata, M Webb, M Collins, K Williams, M. Yoshimori, J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan Structural similarities and differences in climate responses to CO2 increase between two perturbed physics ensembles by general circulation models. Journal of Climate. (Accepted Sep 2009, published 15 March 2010) [pdf] [link]

  • J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Efficient identification of a ocean thermodynamics in a physical/biogeochemical ocean model with an iterative Importance Sampling method, Ocean Modelling (submitted Aug 2009, Accepted Feb 2010, Published Mar 2010) [pdf] [link]

2009

  • J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, On the importance of the paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change. Climate of the Past, 5, 803-814, 2009. [link] [pdf]
  • J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves. On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.   DOI:10.1007/s10584-009-9715-y Climatic Change, Published Online First Oct 2009. [pdf]
  • Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa and Seita Emori; “Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate”, SOLA, Vol. 5, pp.133-136 (2009), published Aug 2009 [link] [pdf]
  • J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Comment on “Aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity deduced from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition”, by P. Chylek and U. Lohmann, Geophys. Res. Lett., Clim. Past, 5, 143-145, published Apr 2009. [link] [pdf]

2008 

  • G.-K. Plattner, R. Knutti, F. Joos, T. F. Stocker, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, D. Cameron, E. Driesschaert, S. Dutkiewicz, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Fichefet, J. C. Hargreaves, C. D. Jones, M. F. Loutre, H. D. Matthews, A. Mouchet, S. A. Mueller, S. Nawrath, A. Price, A. Sokolov, K. M. Strassmann, and A. J. Weaver, Long-term climate commitments projected with climate - carbon cycle models, Journal of Climate, 21, (12), 2721-2751, 2008. [pdf]

2007 

  • A. Ridgwell, I. Zondervan, J.C. Hargreaves, J. Bijma, T. Lenton, Significant long-term increase of fossil fuel CO2 uptake from reduced marine calcification, Biogeosciences, 4, 481-492, 2007  [online discussion] [final version] [pdf]
  • T.M. Lenton, R. Marsh, A.R. Price, D.J. Lunt, Y. Aksenov, J.D. Annan, T. Cooper-Chadwick, S.J. Cox, N.R. Edwards, S. Goswami, J.C. Hargreaves, P.P. Harris, Z. Jiao, V.N. Livina, A.J. Payne, I.C. Rutt, J.G. Shepherd, P. J. Valdes, G. Williams, M.S. Williamson, and A. Yool, Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework, Climate Dynamics, 26, 6, 591-613, 2007, [online first]   DOI:10.1007/s00382-007-0254-9.
  • A. Ridgwell, J.C. Hargreaves, N.R. Edwards, J.D. Annan, T.M. Lenton, R. Marsh, A. Yool, and A. Watson, An efficient Earth System Model of Global biogeochemical cycling (I) Marine geochemical data assimilation, Biogeosciences, 4, 87-104, 2007. [online discussion] [final version] [pdf]
  • A. Ridgwell and J.C. Hargreaves, Ocean sediment data assimilation within an Earth system model: The importance of deep-sea carbonates in the long-term sequestration of fossil fuel CO2, GBC,  21, doi:10.1029/2006GB002764 (2007).
  • J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling, Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society A,  365, 1857, 2077-2088, 2007 [pdf].
  • “Modelling Late Quaternary Climate”, Eds. J.C. Hargreaves, N. Weber, P. Braconnot and J. Guiot, Climate of the Past, Special Issue, 2007.

  • J.C. Hargreaves, A. Abe-Ouchi and J.D. Annan, Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations,  Climate of the Past, 3, 77-87, 2007 [final revised version] [online discussion] [pdf] 
  • S. L. Smith, B. E. Casareto, M. P. Niraula, Y. Suzuki, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan and Y. Yamanaka. Assimilating Data from Incubations into a Multi-Element Ecosystem Model, Journal of Marine Systems, vol. 64, no.1-4, p135-152. 2007 [pdf]

2006 

  • J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (6): Art. No. L06704, Mar 18, 2006 [pdf]
  • J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios, Ocean Modelling, 11 (1-2): 174-192 2006 [pdf]

2005 

  • J.D. Annan, D.J. Lunt DJ, J.C. Hargreaves and P.J. Valdes, Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 12 (3): 363-371 2005 [pdf]
  • J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Emori. Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with paleoclimate simulations.  SOLA Vol 1 pages 181-184, 2005 [pdf]
  • J.D. Annan JD, J.C. Hargreaves, N.R. Edwards and R. Marsh, Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter, Ocean Modelling, 8 (1-2): 135-154 2005 [pdf]

2004 

  • J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, N.R. Edwards and R. Marsh, An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter, Climate Dynamics, 23 (7-8): 745-760 Dec 2004 [pdf]
  • J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Efficient parameter estimation for a highly chaotic system, Tellus Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and oceanography, 56 (5): 520-526 OCT 2004 [pdf]

2003 

  • J.C. Hargreaves and A. Abe-Ouchi, Timing of ice-age terminations determined by wavelet methods, Paleoceanography, 18 (2): Art. No. 1035 May 16 2003 [pdf]

  • C. Huntingford, J.C. Hargreaves, T.M. Lenton and J.D. Annan, Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7 (2): 213-219 Apr 2003 [pdf]

2002 

  • J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple Earth system model, Climate Dynamics 19 (5-6): 371-381 Aug 2002 [pdf]
  • J.C. Hargreaves, D.J.T. Carter, P.D. Cotton and J. Wolf, Using the SWAN wave model and satellite altimeter data to study the influence of climate change at the coast, The Global Atmosphere and Ocean System, 8 (1): 41-66, Mar 2002.

2001 

  • J.K. Hargreaves, A. Ranta, J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Temporal fine structure of nighttime spike events in auroral radio absorption, studied by a wavelet method, Journal of Geophsyical Research - Space Physics, 106 (A11): 24621-24636, Nov 1 2001
  • J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Comments on "Improvement of the short-fetch behavior in the wave ocean model (WAM)", Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 18 (4): 711-715 2001

2000 

  • J. Monbaliu, R. Padilla-Hernandez, J.C. Hargreaves, J.C.C. Albiach, W.M. Luo, M. Sclavo and H. Gunther, The spectral wave model, WAM, adapted for applications with high spatial resolution, Coastal Engineering, 41 (1-3): 41-62 Sep 2000
  • D. Prandle D, J.C. Hargreaves, J.P. McManus, A.R. Campbell, K. Duwe, A. Lane, P. Mahnke, S. Sminwelland J. Wolf. Tide, wave and suspended sediment modelling on an open coast - Holderness, Coastal Engineering, 41 (1-3): 237-267 Sep 2000

Last Century

  • J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan. The impact of fierce weather on lazy modelling. In The wind-driven air-sea interface, Ed. M. Banner, ADFA  Document Production Centre, Canberra, Australia, 125–132, 1999 
  • J. Monbaliu, J.C. Hargreaves, J.C.C. Carretero, H. Gerritsen and R. Flather, Wave modelling in the PROMISE project, Coastal Engineering, 37 (3-4): 379-407 Aug 1999
  • J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Sea surface temperature assimilation for a three-dimensional baroclinic model of shelf seas Continental Shelf Research, 19 (11): 1507-1520 Sep 1999
  • J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D. Carter , A dynamical study of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 282 (2): 305-312 Sep 15 1996
  • J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, J.D. Annan, The influence of binary stars on dwarf spheroidal galaxy kinematics, MNRAS 279 (1): 108-120 Mar 1 1996
  • J.C. Hargreaves, The Dynamics of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies, PhD Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995
  • J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D. Carter , A dynamical study of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy, MNRAS, 271: 693 Sep 15 1994
  • J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D .Carter , A dynamical study of the Sextans dwarf spheroidal galaxy, MNRAS, 269: 957 Sep 15 1994