Figure 4: The projected mean temperature in summer (June, July, August) in the realm of Japan (The result in Scenario "A1B" was used for the data from 2001 onward). The black line indicates year-to-year value and the red line indicates 10-year moving average value. The standard deviation of year-to-year fluctuations during the period of 2071 to 2100 is 0.52 (yellow), which is not large compared to the standard deviation (light blue) of 0.54 for the period of 1971 to 2000. Effects of urbanization are not considered.