January 18, 2012 (notes updated January 21, 2012)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition continues in the boreal winter and spring of 2012 but it will start decaying from the summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer of 2012 and then peak in boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina condition, colder-than-normal condition will continue over many parts of the world in following seasons. Whereas, the northern Eurasia and USA will experience the warmer-than-normal climate in boreal spring. Japan will experience the warmer-than-normal condition in spring. This seems to be due to influences from the anomalous high simulated over the northern North Pacific in response to La Nina. Eastern China and southern Japan will experience a weaker-than-normal Meiyu-Baiu season in early boreal summer of 2012.
Associated with the negative IOD, the austral winter rains over Indonesia and Australia are expected to be above normal. However, Indian sub-continent is expected to experience a weaker summer monsoon.

December 21, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition would peak in the boreal winter of 2012 and then start decaying.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral condition would continue in boreal　winter of 2012. A weak negative IOD would occur in early summer of the 2012. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. The warm anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would disappear by boreal spring season.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina condition,cool-wet condition would occur in Australia, Brazil, and India in　following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe in following seasons. Whereas,　the northern Eurasia and USA would experience the warmer-than-normal climate in boreal winter and spring. It would be colder than normal in eastern China in coming winter. In contrast to our empirical expectation, Japan would experience the warmer-than-normal condition in winter and spring. This seems to be due to influences from the anomalous high simulated over the northern North Pacific in response to La Nina.

November 20, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition would continue to grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and spring and start decaying in boreal summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: Indian Ocean came back to the neutral condition in October. The neutral condition would continue in boreal winter of 2012. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal spring season. A weak negative IOD would occur in early summer of 2012.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except for the northern Eurasia and USA in following seasons. It would be colder than normal in Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) in coming winter.

October 14, 2011 (notes updated October 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition has been growing as we predicted. The La Nina condition would continue to grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and spring and start decaying in boreal summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD would stay during this boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal spring season.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in the southern Africa, Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except for the northern Eurasia and eastern USA in following seasons. It would be colder than normal in Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) in coming winter.

September 17, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition has begun; this has been correctly forecast since many months ago. The La Nina condition would grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and decay in boreal spring-summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD would stay during this boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal winter and spring seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. During this boreal fall, wet/flooding condition would occur in Indonesia, India, and the eastern Africa. Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) would have warm/wet condition in this fall season and colder weather in winter.

August 12, 2011 (notes updated August 21, 2011)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina Modoki-like condition will persist for a while; this has been correctly forecast since many months ago. Eventually, La Nina condition would come back late this year and persist during the whole 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD will stay during boreal fall of 2011. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the returning La Nina condition, cool-wet condition will be observed in the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil in following austral spring and summer. The La Nina will also help to reduce the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. Wet/flooding condition will be realized in Indonesia, India, the eastern Africa. A fall rain (shurin) front will be active in eastern China, Korea and western Japan.

July 14, 2011
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has finished during the last month. Consistent with previous forecasts, our model again shows that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist out to 2012.
IO forecast: A weak positive IOD would occur in August to November 2011; this may be related to current subsurface cooling condition in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Cool-wet condition in southern Africa would return back late austral spring. Many parts of Australia would have wet-cool condition during late austral spring to summer. Southeastern China-western Japan would have a dry condition in August but with above-normal Akisame (autumn rain) in September. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding during late summer to fall associated with the influence of La Nina and positive IOD.

June 14, 2011 (notes updated June 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has decayed during the past months and showed a Modoki-type pattern. Although the possibility of an El Nino development cannot be excluded (if surface westerly wind bursts in the equatorial western Pacific would happen in following months), our model forecasts continuously show that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: Large uncertainty exists for the IOD forecasts; neither strong positive IOD nor strong negative IOD would occur this year. Warmer seas surface temperature would persist west of Australia.
Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter but weaken in spring. Most of Australia would have a dry austral winter and normal spring. Japan would have a dry condition in July-August 2011; seasonal mean temperature would be almost normal this summer but with strong intraseasonal fluctuations. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in July-August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding associated with the La Nina influence.

May 11, 2011 (notes updated May 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current weakening La Nina signal would decay further in following months. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki pattern. However, the La Nina condition would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: During boreal summer-fall of 2011, a weak positive IOD would possibly happen (despite of the La Nina) but with uncertainty.
Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter-spring seasons. While most of Australia would have a warm/dry austral winter but a wet/cool spring. Japan would have slightly above-normal Baiyu precipitation in June but dry condition in July-August 2011; temperature would be almost normal. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in following summer. Most of India would have good rains associated with the La Nina influence.

April 13, 2011 (notes updated April 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina signal has weakened rapidly in March 2011 and would decay further in following months. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki-type pattern. However, the cold La Nina condition might rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: During boreal summer-fall of 2011, a weak negative IOD might occur with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast: The wet condition in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa, due to the La Nina influence, would weaken in following austral winter but might return back in austral spring. Associated with the La Nina-related cyclonic circulation anomalies east of the Philippines, dry condition would occur from the southeastern China to southern Japan during the boreal spring, followed by slightly above normal Meiyu-Baiyu precipitation in June and normally hot but drier summer condition in 2011.

March 8, 2011 (notes updated March 23, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina has started to weaken and would decay further in following boreal spring and summer seasons. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki pattern. The cold La Nina condition might rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: Cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and warm anomalies along the west coast of Australia, in association with the La Nina impact, would persist in the following season. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD would occur with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast: The flooding condition in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa, due to the La Nina influence, tend to weaken but persist in boreal spring. Southeastern China, southwestern Japan, US and Europe would have warm and dry condition during boreal spring-summer seasons. While, Northeastern China, Korea, and northern Japan would have relatively cool and wet spring-summer seasons.

February 14, 2011 (notes updated February 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would decay in following boreal spring and summer seasons but would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012. The revived one would show a La Nina of Modoki nature
IO forecast: Associated with the La Nina impact, the surface temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean has become colder than normal in January 2011. The tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease further in following seasons but with strong warming along the west coast of Australia. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD might tend to occur.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina influence, below-normal surface air temperature and above-normal precipitation would continue in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa during the austral fall-winter. Southeastern China,southwestern Japan, US and Europe would have warmer-than-normal and dry climate during spring-summer seasons.

January 17, 2011 (notes updated January 19, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition has reached its peak and we expect it will gradually decay. Since the present La Nina is rather strong, it will take about a year to disappear completely.
IO forecast: The negative IOD condition has finished. Associated with the La Nina impact, the surface temperature in major parts of the tropical Indian Ocean (except the western coast of Australia) will be below normal up to the early summer in early 2011; this is quite a contrast to the case in 2010. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD may occur again.
Regional forecast: Associated with the strong La Nina, the global mean surface air temperature decreased last month and severe cold stormy weather happened in northern Eurasia and parts of North America. We expect that the surface air temperature in Eurasia,East Asia northern North America, Australia, Brazil, and Africa will be below normal in following months. There is a possibility that more precipitation/floods will occur in Australia, South Africa, and northeastern Brazil in early 2011. East China, Korea and western Japan will have a hot summer with less precipitation in 2011 because of the persistent La Nina impact.

December 13, 2010
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would have reached its peak intensity and decay in following seasons. This La Nina event might be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: The current negative IOD condition (a clear dipole pattern is seen in rainfall anomaly field) would finish soon. During the first half of 2011, due to this La Nina's influence, sea surface temperature in many parts of the tropical Indian Ocean would be colder-than-normal except a large warming near the west coast of Australia.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would decrease in the following seasons. Whereas, southeastern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate in association with the well-known negative PNA atmospheric teleconnection. Parts of northeastern Asia (including Japan) might have warmer-than-normal winter. Above-normal precipitation would occur in Australia, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries.

November 11, 2010 (notes updated November 22, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would continue to grow and reach its peak strength in following months. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A negative IOD condition with a clear dipole pattern of rainfall anomaly is occurring and would persist till the end of 2010. During the first half of 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur in the tropical Indian Ocean. In boreal summer and fall of 2011, a weak negative IOD condition would probably occur again.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be colder-than-normal in the following boreal winter and spring seasons. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent and southeastern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate. Surface temperature over Japan would be near normal in winter but warmer-than-normal in spring. Above-normal precipitation would occur in South Africa, Australia, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries. Cold stormy weather might occur in southeastern China, along the Japan Sea coastal regions of Japan, and northern North America in early 2011.

October 15, 2010 (notes updated October 18, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strengthening La Nina condition would continue to grow and become a very strong cold event in following months. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A negative IOD condition is occurring and would persist till the end of 2010. During the first half of 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur in the tropical Indian Ocean.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be colder-than-normal in the following boreal winter and spring seasons. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and southern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate. Above-normal precipitation would occur in South Africa, Australia, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries. Associated with the persisting warm sea surface temperature around Japan, warm and wet (probably more snow along the Japan Sea coast) condition would occur over large parts of Japan during this boreal winter.

September 10, 2010 (notes updated September 13, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would continue to grow and reach a peak phase in following boreal winter. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A weak negative IOD would occur in the boreal fall because of the influence of this strong La Nina. In early 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina influence, more rainfalls would occur in the eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern South America, Australia, and India in this fall season. South Africa, Australia, and northeastern Brazil would have cool and flooding austral summer. Current warmer-than-normal condition in Japan would persist in following months. During the boreal winter, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below-than-normal. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and southeastern North America would experience a warm winter.

August 18, 2010
ENSO forecast: The La Nina condition has continued to develop quickly in July 2010. A fairly strong cold event would occur in following months and peak around the end of 2010. This La Nina condition would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: Basin-wide sea surface temperature warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean would persist up to the end of 2010. In early 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur due to the La Nina influence.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina influence, more rainfalls would occur in the eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern South America, Australia, and India in following boreal fall and winter seasons. During the winter, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below-than-normal. Whereas, the Europe, northern Eurasian continent and southeastern North America would experience a warm winter. Heavy snowfall might occur in the Japanese coastal region facing the Sea of Japan in coming winter.

July 16, 2010 (notes updated July 19, 2010)
ENSO forecast: La Nina condition has developed quickly in June 2010. A fairly strong cold event would occur in following months. This La Nina condition might last for a longer-than-normal period (i.e., more than one year).
IO forecast: Basin-wide sea surface temperature warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean would persist up to the end of 2010. In early 2011, a basin-wide cooling would occur due to the La Nina influence.
Others: In August 2010, the stronger Meiyu-Baiyu rainfall front which has caused more rains or floods in the southeastern China and southern Japan over the past month would migrate northward. This would lead to more rains/floods in the northeastern China but hot-dry summer in southeastern China and southern Japan. This is related to an anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Indonesia, northern South America, East Africa, and India would experience more rains in following fall and winter seasons. Many parts of Australia might experience more rains from late 2010 (October) to early 2011. During the next boreal winter, many parts of the globe would experience colder-than-normal weather associated with the strong La Nina influence.

June 14, 2010 (notes updated June 17, 2010)
ENSO forecast: La Nina condition has started to appear. A fairly strong La Nina condition would rapidly develop in boreal summer and continue developing up to early next year.
IO forecast: There is large uncertainty for IOD forecast; the ensemble spread is very large. Basin-wide warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean might persist in following boreal summer and fall seasons.
Others: In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation and lower-than-normal temperature would appear in eastern Asia. We expect a stronger-than-normal Baiu and Akisame (autumn rain) seasons. This is related to an anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Indonesia, southeast Asia and parts of Australia would experience more rains because of the la Nina condition. Northeast Brazil, East Africa, and India would experience more rains because of nearby high sea surface temperature.

May 13, 2010 (notes updated May 17, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current Modoki-type El Nino has already ended in early May. A fairly strong La Nina condition would rapidly develop in boreal summer.
IO forecast: A very weak positive IOD would happen in following summer and fall, probably triggered by existing colder-than-normal subsurface temperature in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. However, the forecast plume is so spread and we are not certain of this averaged forecast at this stage.
Others: In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation and lower-than-normal temperature would appear in eastern Asia with a stronger-than-normal Meiyu-Baiyu season. Indonesia, parts of Australia, Northeast Brazil, East Africa, and India would experience more rains or floods.

April 15, 2010 (notes updated April 16, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current Modoki-type El Nino would end soon in the following months. A fairly strong La Nina condition would develop in boreal summer.
IO forecast: Basin-wide warming would continue in the tropical Indian Ocean until following summer. A negative IOD would happen in Sep-Nov 2010 associated with the La Nina development.
Others: Warmer-than-normal climate associated with current El Nino would decay after boreal summer over many parts of the globe, particularly in Northern Hemisphere continents and Australia, due to the influence of La Nina development. In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation would appear in eastern Asia with a strong Meiyu-Baiyu season. Indonesia, Australia, Northeast Brazil, and India would also experience more rains or floods. Current severe drought disaster in southeastern China might be slightly reduced in following months.

March 21, 2010 (notes updated March 23, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would end soon in the following months. A fairly strong La Nina condition would develop in boreal summer.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following spring and summer. There is a tendency of a negative IOD to happen in Sep-Nov 2010 associated with the La Nina development.
Others: Associated with the current El Nino influence, warmer climate would appear in following spring over many parts of the globe except the southeastern North America, Europe, and eastern Asia. In boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in southeastern China-western Japan related to the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Eastern Australia would have more precipitation than normal during May to August 2010. India would have good summer monsoon.

February 16, 2010 (notes updated February 18, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would decay quickly in the following season. A La Nina condition would appear after summer.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following spring and summer. There is a tendency of a weak positive IOD to happen in Sep-Nov 2010.
Others: Associated with the current El Nino influence, warmer climate would appear in following spring over many parts of the globe except the southeastern North America, Europe, and eastern China. In boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in southeastern China-western Japan related to the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Eastern Australia might have more precipitation than normal during May to August 2010.

January 18, 2010 (notes updated January 19, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would decay quickly in following months. A La Nina condition would appear late this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino influence.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following months and spring season over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except that colder conditions would occur in the southeastern North America and northeastern Eurasia. Large parts of Australia, South Africa and northeastern Brazil would suffer from a warmer and dry condition. During boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Northern and eastern coastal areas of Australia might have more precipitation than normal during June-August.

December 16, 2009 (notes updated December 18, 2009)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific grew last month and reached a magnitude of 1.5C in Nino3.4 region. It would reach its peak phase during Dec 2009 - Feb 2010, and then decay quickly in next boreal spring.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino influence.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following winter and spring seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern North America. Large parts of Australia, South Africa and northeastern Brazil would suffer from a hot and dry condition. Warmer winter would appear in East Asia associated with an eastward shift of the Aleutian Low. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines.

November 16, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacfic would grow slightly in following months, reaching an intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino evolution.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following winter and spring seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern North America. Large parts of Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines.

October 19, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino would grow slightly in following months, reaching an intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino evolution.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southern North America and mid-latitude Eurasia. Large parts of Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone east of the Philippines.

September 14, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino condition would grow slightly in following months, reaching a weak-to-intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino development. A local warming would appear west of Sumatra-Java in Sep-Nov 2009, bringing more rainfall over that region.
Others: Warmer climate would appear during Dec-Feb over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern area of North America. The negative IOD-like rainfall in Sep-Nov 2009 might help to increase precipitation in some parts of Australia. In Dec-Feb, however, Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition.

August 14, 2009 (notes updated August 19, 2009)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino condition will keep growing in following months, reaching an intermediate-to-strong El Nino late in this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons possibly associated with the El Nino development in the Pacific. A local warming would appear west of Sumatra in Sep-Nov 2009, resembling a negative IOD condition.
(*) The current cool condition in the Far East would persist in the following season. Warmer than normal condition would appear during Dec-Feb in most part of the globe related to the El Nino influence. Australia would suffer from a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following two seasons.

July 17, 2009 (notes updated July 28, 2009)
1) The SST warming is the most prominent in the central tropical Pacific. It is more like El Nino Modoki (or Dateline El Nino) rather than conventional El Nino. Also, we notice that the warming anomaly spans almost all tropical Pacific. The anomalous condition is seen at least up to the early summer next year.
2) The SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean shows basin-wide warming.

* The surface temperature near Japan shows negative anomalies in fall and southern Japan is expected to receive higher than normal rainfall.
* The surface temperature in the central and eastern US shows consistent negative anomalies at least up to next late spring. Precipitation anomaly over northern parts of West Coast will be drier whereas the southern parts are expected to get normal to above normal rainfall.
* The surface temperature anomaly in Australia is positive up to at least next Apr-May. The precipitation anomaly is negative or close to normal. Most parts of eastern Australia are expected to be drier in Sep-Nov with a chance of revival of normal rainfall in Dec-Feb.

June 12, 2009
ENSO forecast: A strong El Nino would occur.
IOD forecast: A weak positive IOD would appear, probably in response to the strong El Nino.
Related with the strong El Nino and weak positive IOD, Australia would have dry and warm austral winter and spring. India would have poor summer monsoon.
Note: Certain uncertanties may arise from the renewing of Earth Simulator. El Nino prediction appears to be underestimated.

May 15, 2009
ENSO forecast: The probability to have an El Nino late this year is increasing.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would occur during boreal summer and fall.
Related with the negative IOD during summer-fall, Australia would have good rain. Eastern China-western Japan and Europe might be cooler than normal. India would have poor summer monsoon (less rainfall).
Note: Certain biases may arise from the renewing of Earth Simulator. In particular, El Nino signal appears to be underestimated according to our preliminary check.

April 20, 2009
ENSO forecast: La Nina is ending. There is possibility of El Nino late this year.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would occur during boreal summer and fall.
Because of negative IOD, southeastern Australia would have good rain in boreal fall.
Note: The super-computer "Earth Simulator" was renewed this month. Please be careful that additional uncertainty for the forecasts may exist.

March 13, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina would continue to persist surprisingly.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would appear in the second half of this year.
Other: Dry condition in mid-China and southeastern Australia would occur during the following spring, but might finish in boreal summer.

February 13, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina would decay soon during the following spring and summer. An intermediate-to-strong El Nino might happen late this year.
IOD forecast: It is still too early to say. Both positive and negative IOD have equal probability of occurrence.
Other: Current drought disaster in mid-China would become worse because of the possible warm and dry condition during the following spring season. And the drought in southeast Australia might persist too.

January 19, 2009
Surface air temperature anomalies over the globe in February 2009 would be similar to those during typical La Nina year. In particular, East China-western Japan and northern North America would be colder than normal.

December 15, 2008
La Nina would develop in next seasons and might last until early 2010.

November 15, 2008
East Asia would experience colder weather in January-February 2009. Southeastern China would again have cold stormy weather, probably worse than what happened early 2008.

June 2008
A strong positive IOD would appear this summer and fall. This would be the third event just after the 2006 and 2007 episodes. This event might cause extreme climate anomalies in broad areas."

May 2007
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to develop in late summer of 2007. In the Pacific, a La Nina condition is forecast. This a rare combination. Good Indian Summer Monsoon, hot summer in the East Asia, and dry boreal winter in Australia might be expected.

2006
The positive IOD in summer and fall of 2006 has been constantly forecast from different initial conditions since 1 November 2005. The overall situation in Indo-Pacific sector looks similar to that in 1994.