I am a senior scientist in the
which is part of the global warming division
of the Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), formerly known as
FRCGC, and based in Yokohama, Japan. My email address is
Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project:
In April 2012, the
second phase of JUMP began! Our new website may be
accessed by clicking on the JUMP logo above.
The JUMP name and logo remain, although
several institutes in Japan have changed name. JUMP is based at
the RIGC, which is part of JAMSTEC, and includes researchers working on
similar topics from RIGC, NIES (National Institute for Environmental
Studies), AORI (formerly CCSR, University of Tokyo) and NIED (National
Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention). Running
years, from April 2012, we are funded by two new projects from the
ministries of Environment and Science. The former structure of the
whole "Leading Project"
was dissolved by JAMSTEC management upon the cessation of the
previous funding stream so, despite the unusually strong
success (compared to other Japanese projects), of JUMP over the last 5
years, it not now part of the formal structure of JAMSTEC. The goal of
remains investigating and reducing uncertainty
associated with various aspects of climate change prediction ranging
multi-decadal to centennial time scale. Paleoclimate studies remain a
strong aspect of our research activities.
History of JUMP: In April 2007 James
and I were funded through two different
five-year Japanese projects, the Ministry of
Environments "S5" and MEXT's "Kakushin". In order to aid management
of these projects I invented JUMP
Modelling Project or, our answer to the UK Met Office's QUMP. At that
time there was a team of five researchers working on uncertainty
related issues at FRCGC with
wider collaborative links to both the National
in Tsukuba and the Center
for Climate System Research
in Kashiwa, which is part of the
University of Tokyo. In April 2009 JUMP
went public in Japan, ceasing to be a covert underground operation
known only to the outside world. Our JAMSTEC chapter officially existed
as the Uncertainty Estimation Research Group, of which I was the leader
within the so called "Towards AR5, Leading Project". The list of members
of this first phase of JUMP can be found at our former researchpages.net site
The research of JUMP is
focussed on reducing uncertainty in prediction of future climate
change. We have investigated many different components of the climate
system including: sea-ice, ice sheets, terrestrial carbon cycle, ocean
biogeochemistry, global and regional temperature and precipitation, and
climate feedbacks. We mainly use state-of-the-art GCMs and intermediate
complexity models, focussing on both single and multi-model ensembles.
The periods of interest studied have included the Last Glacial Maximum,
the mid-Holocene, the Last Millennium, the Historical period, as well
as the future.
Over the last few years my personal research interest has been on using
paleoclimate information to learn about future climate change.
Most recently I have been using statistical methods to assess the
ensemble of climate models run for the Last Glacial Maximum and
mid-Holocene in the Paleoclimate Inter-comparison projects (PMIP, PMIP2
and PMIP3). First steps in using these ensemble to constrain future
climate have begun.
Whenever I come across a really difficult mathematical problem I call
Climate of the Past
I am presently co-editor of a special issue related to the results from
the third Paleoclimate Inter-comparison project PMIP3. The issue is
in paleoclimate modelling
and submissions are still welcome. Please
email the lead editor of this special issue, Masa Kageyama
if you have any queries about this special issue.
I was lead editor of the special issue for Climate
of the Past called Modelling Late Quaternary Climate. The issue was
completed in 2007 and is available free to all on-line [discussion
hard-copy version has been produced, and it is still possible to order
a copy by emailing Nadine
. This special issue arose from the EGU
Climate session, "Modelling the Climates of the Late Quaternary" held
at the 2006 meeting in Vienna.
The EGU journal, Geoscientific
Frustrated with the
un-reproduceable state of much work published using
complex computer models, we (Dan
decided to try to start a new journal where models,
technical modelling advancements and model inter-comparison
projects could be properly
published, including source code and manuals. Several other people also
thought this was a good idea and thus an orange
EGU journal was formed:
Model Development (GMD)
is an international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and
public discussion of the description, development and evaluation of
numerical models of the Earth System and its components."
Thanks in large part to the EGU's assistance, GMD is a success and I
still enjoy being an executive editor of the journal.
The EGU journal, Earth
(updated April 2013): H-index=19
I always thought that
there should be a sister journal to Climate of
the Past, called Climate of the Future, but somehow the idea never got
very far up the flagpole of the EGU publications committee. Instead the
EGU chose to incorporate this aspect into a new more wide-ranging
journal called Earth System
I serve as a topical editor of this journal, which seems to be
developing into a home for interesting and sometimes unusual or
- paleoclimate, ensemble methods/uncertainty, future climate, carbon
cycle/biogeochemistry, astrophysics/astronomy, solar-terrestrial science
61. G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein,
B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M.
Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V.
Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay,
and P. Yiou, Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future
projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 775-835, 2013.
Tachiiri, J.C. Hargreaves,
J.D. Annan, C. Huntingford, and M. Kawamiya,
Allowable carbon emissions for a medium mitigation scenario. [submitted
J.D. Annan, and J.C. Hargreaves
Affinity: the meaningful trait-based
alternative to the half-saturation constant for microbial ecology.
Submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (sub June 2012).
58. T. Yokohata, J.D.
Annan, M. Collins, C.S. Jackson, H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, S. Emori, M.
Yoshimori, M. Abe, M.J. Webb, and J.C.
Hargreaves. Reliability and importance of structural diversity
of climate model ensembles. Submitted to Climate Dynamics (sub July
57. J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A.
Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi. Skill and reliability of climate model
ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene. ￼Clim. Past, 9,
811–823, 2013 doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013 (sub July 2012, acc Feb 2013,
pub Mar 2013). [pdf]
56. Emma J. Stone, Daniel J. Lunt, James D.
Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves, Quantification of Greenland ice-sheet
contribution to Last Interglacial sea-level rise. ￼Clim. Past, 9,
621–639, 2013 doi:10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 (sub July 2012, acc Feb 2013,
pub March 2013). [pdf]
55. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves. A new global
reconstruction of temperature changes
at the Last Glacial Maximum. Clim. Past, 9,
367–376, doi:10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013. (sub Sep 2012, acc Jan 2013,
pub Feb 2013).[pdf]
Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, M. Yoshimori and A. Abe-Ouchi. Can the
Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?
GRL, Vol. 39, L24702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053872, 2012. (submitted Sep
2012, published Dec 2012).[pdf]
Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, J.D. Annan,
J.C. Hargreaves, M. Abe, Y.
Kamae, R. O’ishi, R. Nobui, S. Emori, T.
Nozawa, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Kimoto. Perturbed Physics Ensemble using
the MIROC5 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM without Flux Corrections:
Experimental Design and Results. Climate Dynamics, DOI:
10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x, Volume 39, Issue 12, pp 3041-3056, (sub
Aug 2011, pub
online July 2012, pub on paper Dec 2012).
Annan and J.C. Hargreaves. Identification of climatic state with
limited proxy data. Clim. Past 8 pp 1141-1151, 2012. (sub Jan 2012, acc + pub June 2012) [online]
Day, J. C.
Hargreaves, J. D. Annan and A.
Abe-Ouchi. Sources of
multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. Environmental
Research Letters 7 034011 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011 (sub May
2012, acc July 2012, pub July 2012) [online]
Watanabe, H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, T. Ogura,
J.D. Annan, J.C.
Hargreaves, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto.
Multiphysics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud–Shortwave
Feedback in GCMs. J. Climate, 25, 5416–5431. doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00564.1(sub Sept 2011, acc Feb
2012, in print Aug 2012). [online]
49. K. Tachiiri, A. Ito, T. Hajima, J.C. Hargreaves,
J. D. Annan, and M. Kawamiya, Contribution of parametric
uncertainty in a process-based vegetation model to climate- and
concentration-carbon cycle feedbacks, Journal of the Meteorological
Society of Japan, vol 90A, pp 259-274, DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2012-A13 (sub.
Mar 2011, acc Oct 2011, pub June 2012) [online]
Yokohata, J.D. Annan, M. Collins, C.S. Jackson, M. Tobis, M.J. Webb, J.C. Hargreaves,
Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model
ensembles, Climate Dynamics, Climate Dynamics, Volume 39, Numbers 3-4
(2012), 599-616, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1. (sub. Mar 2011,
acc+online Aug 2011, in print Aug 2012) [pdf][link]
J.D. Annan, J.C.
Hargreaves and S. Emori,
Improvements over three
generations of climate model simulations in Eastern India, Climate
Research, 51: 201–216, 2012 (accepted October 2011, published March
46. M. Yoshimori, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, T. Yokohata, and A.
of Feedbacks on Forcing and Climate State in Physics Parameter
Ensembles, Journal of Climate, 24, 6440-6455 (sub. Aug 2010, acc
and pub online May
2011, in print Dec 2011) [pdf] [link]
45. J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves
and K. Tachiiiri, On the observational assessment of climate model
performance, GRL, VOL. 38, L24702, 5 pages,
doi:10.1029/2011GL049812,2011. (sub Aug
2011, acc and published online Nov 2011).[link][pdf]
Das, J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves,
S. Emori, Centennial scale warming
over Japan: are the rural stations really rural?, Atmos. Sci.
DOI:10.1002/asl.350, Vol. 12, Issue 4, 362–367, 2011. (sub. Nov 2010,
acc and pub online May 2011, hardcopy Oct/Dec 2011) [pdf] [link]
43. J.C. Hargreaves,
A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, J. D. Annan, Are paleoclimate model
ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? Climate of the Past
7, 917–933, doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011. (sub. Feb 2011, accepted
July 2011, published August 2011).[pdf][link]
42. J.D. Annan and J.C.
Reply to Henriksson et al.'s comment on "Using multiple
observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity" by
Annan and Hargreaves, CP, 7, 587-589, (sub. Jan 2011, acc May 2011, pub
Annan and J. C.
Understanding the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, Journal of Climate, 24,
4529–4538. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3873.1, 2011. (sub. May 2010, acc, pub.
online Mar 2011, pub hardcopy August 2011) [pdf] [link]
Annan and J.C.
Hargreaves. On the generation and interpretation of
estimates of climate sensitivity. Volume 104, Numbers 3-4, 423-436,
Online First Oct 2009, finally published in hardcopy mid 2011!) [pdf]
39. K. Tachiiri, J.C. Hargreaves, J.D.
Annan, A. Oka, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kawamiya: Development of a
system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models,
3, 365-376,（sub., Dec 2009, acc. Jul 2010, pub. Aug 2010) [pdf] [link]
38. J.C. Hargreaves Skill and
uncertainty in climate models, WIREs, 1(4), 1757-7799 (submitted Nov
2009, accepted May 2010, published June 2010) [pdf] [link]
37. J. D.
Annan and J. C.
Hargreaves, Reliability of the CMIP3
ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703, doi:10.1029/2009GL041994,
and accepted, December 2009, published Jan 2010) [pdf] [link]
Yokohata, M Webb,
M Collins, K Williams, M. Yoshimori, J.C. Hargreaves and
Structural similarities and differences in climate responses to CO2
increase between two perturbed physics ensembles by general circulation
models. Journal of Climate, 23(6) 1392-1410 , 2010. (Accepted Sep 2009,
published 15 March 2010) [pdf] [link]
Annan and J.C.
Eﬃcient identiﬁcation of a ocean
thermodynamics in a physical/biogeochemical ocean model with an
iterative Importance Sampling method, Ocean Modelling, 32, 205–215,
2010. (submitted Aug
2009, Accepted Feb 2010, Published Mar 2010) [pdf] [link]
34. J.C. Hargreaves and
J.D. Annan, On the importance of the paleoclimate modelling for
improving predictions of future climate change. Climate of the Past, 5,
803-814, 2009. [link]
Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia
D. Annan, Toru Nozawa
and Seita Emori; “Correlation between Inter-Model
Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean
Vol. 5, pp.133-136 (2009), published Aug 2009 [link]
J.C. Hargreaves and
J.D. Annan, Comment on “Aerosol radiative forcing and climate
sensitivity deduced from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene
transition”, by P. Chylek and U. Lohmann, Geophys. Res.
Lett., Clim. Past, 5, 143-145, published Apr 2009. [link]
31. G.-K. Plattner, R.
Knutti, F. Joos, T. F. Stocker, W. von Bloh, V.
Brovkin, D. Cameron, E. Driesschaert, S. Dutkiewicz, M. Eby, N. R.
Edwards, T. Fichefet, J.
C. Hargreaves, C. D. Jones, M. F. Loutre, H.
D. Matthews, A. Mouchet, S. A. Mueller, S. Nawrath, A. Price, A.
Sokolov, K. M. Strassmann, and A. J. Weaver, Long-term climate
commitments projected with climate - carbon cycle models, Journal of
Climate, 21, (12), 2721-2751, 2008. [pdf]
30. A. Ridgwell, I.
Hargreaves, J. Bijma, T. Lenton,
Significant long-term increase of fossil fuel CO2 uptake from reduced
marine calcification, Biogeosciences, 4, 481-492,
2007 [online discussion] [final
Lenton, R. Marsh, A.R.
Price, D.J. Lunt, Y. Aksenov, J.D. Annan, T. Cooper-Chadwick, S.J. Cox,
N.R. Edwards, S. Goswami, J.C. Hargreaves, P.P. Harris, Z. Jiao, V.N.
Livina, A.J. Payne, I.C. Rutt, J.G. Shepherd, P. J. Valdes, G.
Williams, M.S. Williamson, and A. Yool, Effects of
atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the
thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated
Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework, Climate
Dynamics, 26, 6, 591-613, 2007, [online
28. A. Ridgwell, J.C.
N.R. Edwards, J.D. Annan, T.M.
Marsh, A. Yool, and A. Watson, An efficient Earth System Model of
Global biogeochemical cycling (I) Marine geochemical data assimilation,
Biogeosciences, 4, 87-104, 2007. [online discussion] [final
27. A. Ridgwell and J.C.
sediment data assimilation within an Earth
system model: The importance of deep-sea carbonates in the long-term
sequestration of fossil fuel CO2, GBC, 21,
Annan and J.C.
Hargreaves, Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate
modelling, Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society
A, 365, 1857, 2077-2088, 2007 [pdf].
[I was lead editor of this SI - this editorial was not
Late Quaternary Climate”, Eds. J.C.
Weber, P. Braconnot and J. Guiot, Climate of the Past, Special Issue,
A. Abe-Ouchi and J.D. Annan, Linking glacial and
future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations,
Climate of the Past, 3,
L. Smith, B. E. Casareto, M. P.
Niraula, Y. Suzuki, J.
J. D. Annan and Y. Yamanaka.
Data from Incubations into a Multi-Element Ecosystem Model, Journal of
Marine Systems, vol. 64, no.1-4, p135-152. 2007 [pdf]
23. J.D. Annan and J.C.
constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research
Letters, 33 (6): Art. No. L06704, Mar 18, 2006 [pdf]
Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Using ensemble prediction
regional climate variation under global warming scenarios, Ocean
Modelling, 11 (1-2): 174-192 2006 [pdf]
21. J.D. Annan, D.J.
Lunt DJ, J.C. Hargreaves
P.J. Valdes, Parameter estimation in an
atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlinear Processes
in Geophysics, 12 (3): 363-371 2005 [pdf]
D. Annan, J. C.
Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Emori.
Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with paleoclimate
Vol 1 pages 181-184, 2005 [pdf]
19. J.D. Annan JD, J.C.
N.R. Edwards and R. Marsh,
estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an
ensemble Kalman filter, Ocean Modelling, 8 (1-2): 135-154 2005 [pdf]
Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, N.R. Edwards and R. Marsh, An
forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model
and the ensemble Kalman filter, Climate Dynamics, 23 (7-8): 745-760 Dec
17. J.D. Annan and J.C.
parameter estimation for a highly chaotic system, Tellus Series A -
Dynamic Meteorology and oceanography, 56 (5): 520-526 OCT 2004 [pdf]
Abe-Ouchi, Timing of ice-age terminations
determined by wavelet methods, Paleoceanography, 18 (2): Art. No. 1035
May 16 2003 [pdf]
T.M. Lenton and J.D. Annan, Extent of
ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model,
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7 (2): 213-219 Apr 2003 [pdf]
Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple Earth system model, Climate
Dynamics 19 (5-6): 371-381 Aug 2002 [pdf]
Carter, P.D. Cotton and J. Wolf, Using
wave model and satellite altimeter data to study the influence of
climate change at the coast, The Global Atmosphere and Ocean System, 8
(1): 41-66, Mar 2002.
Hargreaves, A. Ranta, J.D. Annan and J.C.
fine structure of nighttime spike events in auroral radio absorption,
studied by a wavelet method, Journal of Geophsyical Research - Space
Physics, 106 (A11): 24621-24636, Nov 1 2001
Annan, Comments on "Improvement of the short-fetch behavior in the wave
ocean model (WAM)", Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 18
(4): 711-715 2001
Monbaliu, R. Padilla-Hernandez, J.C.
Albiach, W.M. Luo, M. Sclavo and H. Gunther, The spectral wave model,
WAM, adapted for
applications with high spatial resolution, Coastal Engineering, 41
(1-3): 41-62 Sep 2000
Prandle D, J.C.
J.P. McManus, A.R. Campbell, K. Duwe, A. Lane, P. Mahnke, S.
Sminwelland J. Wolf. Tide, wave and suspended sediment
modelling on an
open coast - Holderness, Coastal Engineering, 41 (1-3): 237-267 Sep 2000
and J.D. Annan. The impact of fierce weather on lazy modelling. In The
wind-driven air-sea interface, Ed. M. Banner, ADFA Document
Production Centre, Canberra, Australia, 125–132,
J.C.C. Carretero, H. Gerritsen and R. Flather, Wave modelling
the PROMISE project, Coastal Engineering, 37 (3-4): 379-407 Aug 1999
Annan and J.C.
Sea surface temperature
for a three-dimensional baroclinic model of shelf seas Continental
Shelf Research, 19 (11): 1507-1520 Sep 1999
Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D. Carter , A
study of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy, Monthly Notices of the
Royal Astronomical Society, 282 (2): 305-312 Sep 15 1996
Gilmore, J.D. Annan, The influence of binary
on dwarf spheroidal galaxy kinematics, MNRAS 279 (1): 108-120 Mar 1
3. J.C. Hargreaves, The
Dynamics of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies, PhD Thesis, University of
Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D.
Carter , A dynamical study of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy,
MNRAS, 271: 693 Sep 15 1994
Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D .Carter , A dynamical study of the Sextans
dwarf spheroidal galaxy, MNRAS, 269: 957 Sep 15 1994