Contributions to adaptation for near-future climate change based on large ensemble simulations

Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology

Global- and regional-scale large ensemble simulations of 60-km and 20-km resolution were conducted to understand climate change in near-future*. The dataset was released in August 2018, and we are examining extremely hot/cold cases and extremely high/low precipitation cases not only over Japan but also in many other regions. In particular, over Japan, simulated precipitation and near-surface temperature were corrected based on JMA** observations by every observational station to evaluate “an impact of climate change on human activity” and “an adaptation for climate change on human activity.” These correction data will be released until the end of March 2019. Dynamical downscaling simulations of 1-km, 2-km, and 5-km horizontal resolution were also conducted over limited areas in Japan. This dataset provides scientific knowledge for natural hazard risk and ecosystem conservation and contributes to social implementation for climate change adaptation.
*Climate with +2K warming of global mean near-surface temperature, corresponding to the years between 2030 and 2050.
** Japan Meteorological Agency

The concept of large ensemble simulations

Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC)
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application (CEMA)

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