Successful prediction of phytoplankton in the western tropical Pacific about 6 months in advance ―Toward the world's first quasi-real-time global seasonal lower-trophic marine ecosystem forecasting service―

Pacific island countries are facing serious problems from extreme weather and climate events due to the effects of global warming and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They also depend on fisheries. Seasonal lower-trophic marine ecosystem prediction can help decision-makers and stakeholders, for example, with distant water fishing plans for bonito and tuna. A research team led by Takeshi Doi of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) developed a new system, “SINTEX-F2bio” by combining a marine biogeochemical model with a seasonal climate prediction system. It can predict variations in the amount of chlorophyll-a in the western tropical Pacific 5 to 7 months in advance.

Based on the results, the team has started the world's first global seasonal lower-trophic marine ecosystem forecasting service, which is available on our website (https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html). Seasonal marine ecosystem prediction would allow for more effective economic and ecological planning and management of marine resources in the tropical Pacific.

Fig. 1. Surface chlorophyll anomaly during the Nov. 2026– Jan. 2027 predicted from 1 July 2026 using the SINTEX-F2bio (mg/m3). The blue color indicates the less-than-normal chlorophyll.