Background: Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined.
Results: Global integration of the terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly shows variation much greater in amplitude and longer in periodic timescale than the oceanic flux. The terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly correlates negatively with the oceanic flux in some periods, but positively in others, as the periodic timescale is different between the two variables. To determine the spatial pattern of the variability, a series of composite analyses are performed. The results show that the oceanic CO2 flux variability peaks when the eastern tropical Pacific has a large sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). By contrast, the terrestrial CO2 flux variability peaks when the SSTA appears in the central tropical Pacific. The former pattern of variability resembles the ENSO-mode and the latter the ENSO-modoki (Modoki is a Japanese word meaning "similar but something different").
Conclusions: Our results imply that the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies may correlate either positively or negatively depending on the relative phase of these two modes in the tropical Pacific.
Using a socioeconomic scenario of representative concentration scenarios, terrestrial emissions from biomass burning and anthropogenic land-use change for the twenty-first century are evaluated in a spatially explicit manner using a biogeochemical model. The model is validated with the historical net land-use change CO2 emission and biomass-burning trace gas emission: net land-use change CO2 emission for 1990s to be from 1.03 to 1.53 Pg C year-1 and black carbon emission from biomass burning during 1997-2000 to be 3.1 Tg BC year-1. For future emissions, uncertainty due to CO2 concentration and land-use change scenario is examined using sensitivity experi- ments and reveals significant effect of CO2 on the biomass-burning emissions in terms of direct effect of vegetation mass and the indirect feedback through the fire ignition probability. It also reveals the importance of CO2 fertilization on net land-use change CO2 emission through the regrowing absorption in abandoned agricultural land.
The largest pH decline and widespread undersaturation with respect to aragonite in this century due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the Arctic Ocean have been projected. The reductions in pH and aragonite saturation state have been caused primarily by an increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, in a previous study, simulations with and without warming showed that these reductions in the Arctic Ocean also advances due to the melting of sea ice caused by global warming. Therefore, future projections of pH and aragonite saturation in the Arctic Ocean will be affected by how rapidly the reduction in sea ice occurs. In this study, the impact of sea-ice reduction rate on projected pH and aragonite saturation state in the Arctic surface waters was investigated. Reductions in pH and aragonite saturation were calculatedfrom the outputs of two versions of an earth system model (ESM) with different sea-ice reduction rates under similar CO2 emission scenarios. The newer model version projects that Arctic summer ice-free condition will be achieved by the year 2040, and the older version predicts ice-free condition by 2090. The Arctic surface water was projected to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the annual mean when atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 480 (550) ppm in year 2040 (2048) in new (old) version. At an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 520 ppm, the maximum differences in pH and aragonite saturation state between the two versions were 0.08 and 0.15, respectively. The analysis showed that the decreases in pH and aragonite saturation state due to rapid sea-ice reduction were caused by increases in both CO2 uptake and freshwater input. Thus, the reductions in pH and aragonite saturation state in the Arctic surface waters are significantly affected by the difference in future projections for sea ice reduction rate. The critical CO2 concentration, at which the Arctic surface waters become undersaturated with respect to aragonite on annual mean bias, would be lower by 70 ppm in the version with the rapid sea-ice reduction.