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(3) Cryospheric modelling subgroup


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In order to investigate the influence of the response characteristic and sea level on the ice sheet to warming, the ice sheet model was developed so that reality might often be expressed, and the adaptability to Greenland and the South Pole was investigated (Saito and Abe-Ouchi, 2004). Furthermore, dissolution of the ice sheet equivalent to about 3m of sea levels taking place, if the climate of the Greenland area carries out warming 3 to 4 times, and climate carrying out warming of the South Pole area 7 to 8 times or more, and bringing about the sea level rise by dissolution of an ice sheet at last was shown. On the other hand, in order to investigate about the grade of prediction of warming, the adjustment and the sensitivity experiment of an air sea sea ice joint model (resolution is a degree, 200km of atmospheres, and 100km of oceans in the middle grade) which do not have artificial flux regulation using an Earth Simulator were conducted. As a result of investigating the response characteristic over the reproducibility and warming of the climate of high latitude with high warming sensitivity, or sea ice [ all balls / especially ], even if greenhouse gas stabilizes the grade of warming of the Greenland ice sheet circumference at the end time of the 21st century, the grade which affects a sea level intentionally is reached. The amount of increases in the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere assumed that it was an annual rate of 1%, and prediction until after [ which reaches 4 times ] 140 years was performed (Fig. 12). Compared with all balls, the increase in temperature is large in polar, especially the Northern Hemisphere, and the Greenland ice sheet serves as a grade which influences a sea level intentionally.

Fig. 12: Near [ surface of the earth ] temperature rise in 1% gradual increase experiment of carbon dioxide by air sea sea ice joint model. A result which the increase in precipitation exceeds a little from the effect of the increase in temperature in the South Pole ice sheet was brought. From now on, the same experiment will be conducted by the version from which the indefinite parameter of a model and sensitivity differ. The more detailed analysis of polar, such as tens of year change and width of uncertainty, is required. Furthermore, the program alteration for enabling calculation of air-ice sheet combination (partial integrated model) which synchronized is recommended, and the present adjustment is continued.
Fig. 12: Near [ surface of the earth ] temperature rise in 1% gradual increase experiment of carbon dioxide by air sea sea ice joint model.



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