Apr. 11, 2024
Prediction from 1st Apr., 2024

ENSO forecast:
The recent observation shows that the El Niño has weakened. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will further weaken and a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the occurrence timing and amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The higher-than-normal temperature was present in the tropical Indian Ocean, with warmer temperatures in the west, featuring a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. The SINTEX-F predicts that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole will develop in the boreal spring and persist in the boreal summer.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the May–July average, except for southern Alaska, Baffin Island, eastern Brazil, Argentina, Central Asia, Finland, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The model also predicts a similar pattern in the boreal summer.
As regards the rainfall in the May–July average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal area of Mexico, some parts of the South American Continent, and Indonesia. In contrast, the southern coastal areas of Alaska, Florida, Central America, the Caribbean, the northern part of the South American Continent, Papua New Guinea, some parts of West Africa, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, most of Indochina, the northern part of the Philippines, East Asia, and some parts of Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The model also predicts a similar pattern in the boreal summer.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer and wetter than normal in the May–July average and the summer.

Mar. 15, 2024
Prediction from 1st Mar., 2024

ENSO forecast:
The recent observation validates the weakening of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will further weaken and a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole disappeared. However, the higher-than-normal temperature in the western Indian Ocean still persists. The SINTEX-F predicts that a positive Indian Ocean Basin Mode will persist through the boreal summer, and then a negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode will develop in the boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the April–June average, except for Baffin Island, most of the southeastern U.S.A., Argentina, Central Asia, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The model also predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal summer, except for Baffin Island, most of the southeastern U.S.A., Argentina, some parts of northern Africa, Norway, Central Asia, eastern Russia, and the Kamchatka Peninsula.
As regards the rainfall in the April–June average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for Mexico, western Brazil, Angola, some parts of Indochina, the Philippines, and southern Indonesia. In contrast, the eastern part of Canada, the eastern part of the U.S.A., some parts of Central America, the northern part of the South American Continent, some parts of central Africa, India, some parts of East Asia, and the northern part of Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
In the boreal summer (austral winter), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for California, some parts of the South American Continent, some parts of central Africa, and the Philippines. In contrast, the eastern part of the North American Continent, Mexico, Central America, the northern part of the South American Continent, New Zealand, the eastern part of Australia, some parts of West Africa, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, most of Indochina, Indonesia, the northern part of the Philippines, some parts of China, East Asia, and some parts of Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer and some parts (e.g., Hokkaido, Okinawa, etc.) will be wetter than normal in the April–June average. In the summer, some parts of Japan (e.g., Hokkaido, Okinawa, west Japan, etc.) will be hotter, and most parts of Japan will be wetter than normal.

Feb. 15, 2024
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2024

ENSO forecast:
The recentobservation suggests that the El Niño started to decay. The SINTEX-F ensemblemean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop andpersist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that aLa Niña Modoki will occur in the boreal summer. However, there is a largeuncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the weak signal of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, particularly the warmer-than-normal temperature in the western Indian Ocean. The SINTEX-F predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will disappear in the boreal spring, however the Indian Ocean Basin Mode, particularly strong anomalies in the western Indian Ocean, will persist through the boreal summer.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, except for most of the southeastern U.S.A., southern Argentina, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The model also predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal summer, except for the northern part of Canada, some parts of Argentina, the northern part of Europe, and most of Russia.
As regards the rainfall in the boreal spring, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for Mexico, Hawaii, Brazil, northern Australia, southern Africa, and the Philippines. In contrast, some parts of the U.S.A., some parts of Central America, the northern part of the South American Continent, the La Plata Basin, the southern part of Australia, some parts of central Africa, most of East Asia, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
In the boreal summer (austral winter), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the central part of the U.S.A., the southern part of the South American Continent, the northern part of West Africa, some parts of Indonesia, and the southern part of the Philippines. In contrast, the eastern part of the North American Continent, Mexico, Central America, the northern part of the South American Continent, New Zealand, the eastern part of Australia, some parts of West Africa, India, Nepal, Bhutan, most of Indochina, most of Indonesia, the northern part of the Philippines, some parts of China, East Asia, and some parts of Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer and some parts (e.g., Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Okinawa) will be wetter than normal in the spring. In the summer, most parts of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal.

Jan. 11, 2023
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2023

ENSO forecast:
The recent observation suggests that the El Niño reached its peak. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole started to decay in the boreal winter. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak signal of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, particularly the warmer-than-normal temperature in the western Indian Ocean, will persist through the boreal winter.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, except for northeastern Canada, most of the southeastern U.S.A., southern Argentina, some parts of Europe, and some parts of Russia. The model also predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal summer, except for most of Canada, some parts of Argentina, a western part of Eurasia, and eastern Russia.
As regards the rainfall in the boreal spring, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for a northwestern part of the North American Continent, Hawaii, Brazil, some parts of Indochina, and the Philippines. In contrast, some parts of Alaska, a southeastern part of the U.S.A., some parts of Central America, a northwestern part of the South American Continent, the La Plata Basin, some parts of Australia, some parts of central Africa, most of East Asia, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
In the boreal summer (austral winter), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, some parts of the South American Continent, eastern Europe, southern China, Taiwan, and some parts of the Philippines. In contrast, an eastern part of the North American Continent, Mexico, Central America, a northern part of the South American Continent, New Zealand, an eastern part of Australia, some parts of West Africa, India, Nepal, Bhutan, most of Indochina, Indonesia, the Philippines, some parts of China, East Asia, and central Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer and wetter than normal in the spring. In the summer, most parts of Japan will be wetter than normal.

Oct. 20, 2023
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2023

ENSO forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms further development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal winter and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The SINTEX-F predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will reach its peak in October and decay in the boreal winter. However, the model predicts that the warmer-than-normal temperature in the western Indian Ocean will persist through the boreal winter.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in November–January, except for most of the U.S.A and La Plata. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions. The model also predicts a similar condition in the boreal winter (austral summer).
As regards the rainfall in November–January, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for a western coastal part of the U.S.A., Hawaii, some parts of the Caribbean, Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, norther/eastern Australia, northern part of New Zealand, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, an eastern part of South Africa, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In contrast, Alaska, an eastern part of the U.S.A., Colombia, Ecuador, La Plata, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central Africa, Kenya, western Europe, some parts of Indochina, and most of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and northern/eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. It may increase the likelihood of bushfires in the countries in the coming season. Also, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will be responsible for flooding in East African countries such as Kenya.
In the boreal winter (austral summer), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal areas of the U.S.A., Hawaii, northern Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, northern/eastern Australia, the Philippines, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, and an eastern part of South Africa. In contrast, southern Alaska, a southeastern part of the U.S.A., southern Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, some parts of La Plata, central Africa, Nepal, Bhutan, some parts of Indonesia, and most of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer and wetter than normal in the autumn and winter.

Sep. 13, 2023
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2023

ENSO forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the late boreal autumn and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The SINTEX-F predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will reach its peak in October and decay in the boreal winter. However, the model predicts that the warmer-than-normal temperature in the western Indian Ocean will persist through the boreal winter.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in October–December. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions. The model also predicts a similar condition in the boreal winter (austral summer), except for the eastern part of the U.S.A.
As regards the rainfall in October–December, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for a western coastal part of the U.S.A., Hawaii, many parts of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Tanzania, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In contrast, southern Alaska, a southeastern part of the U.S.A., some parts of the Caribbean, La Plata, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central and western Africa, Kenya, and some parts of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. It may increase the likelihood of bushfires in the countries in the coming season. Also, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will be responsible for flooding in East African countries such as Kenya.
In the boreal winter (austral summer), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal areas of Canada, Hawaii, northern Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, northern Australia, the Philippines, and southern Africa. In contrast, southern Alaska, a southeastern part of the U.S.A., southern Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, some parts of La Plata, central Africa, western Madagascar, Nepal, Bhutan, some parts of Central Asia, most of East Asia, and some parts of Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the autumn and winter. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the autumn and winter.

August 22, 2023
Prediction from 1st August, 2023

ENSO forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal autumn and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation shows signs of the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The SINTEX-F predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will reach its peak in September and decay in the boreal winter.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal autumn (austral spring). The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions. The model also predicts a similar condition in the boreal winter (austral summer).
As regards the rainfall in the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Uganda, Tanzania, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and the Philippines. In contrast, southern Alaska, the Caribbean, La Plata, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central and western Africa, the Horn of Africa, and some parts of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. In the boreal winter (austral summer), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal areas of Canada and the northern U.S.A., Hawaii, Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, northern Australia, the Philippines, and southern Africa. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of the U.S.A., some parts of La Plata, central and eastern Africa, Madagascar, some parts of Central and East Asia, and some parts of Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the autumn and winter. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the autumn and winter.

July 13, 2023
Prediction from 1st July, 2023

ENSO forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach the peak in August and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The SINTEX-F continues to predict the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event during the boreal summer, although the signal is not yet clear from the observations.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the August–October average. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts a similar condition. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions.
As regards the rainfall in the August–October average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, the Philippines, and Taiwan. In contrast, Alaska, Mexico, the Caribbean, La Plata, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central and western Africa, some parts of coastal Indochina, some parts of East Asia, and some parts of western/northern Europe will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for southwestern parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, Mexico, many parts of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In contrast, Alaska, Central America, some parts of La Plata, the Horn of Africa, some parts of central and western Africa, some parts of Europe, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and some parts of coastal Indochina will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal in the August–October average and the autumn.

June 13, 2023
Prediction from 1st June, 2023

ENSO forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of an El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to develop in June–July, mature in August, and persist at least until the next boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event will occur in the boreal summer.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the July–August–September average. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions.
As regards the average rainfall in the July–August–September average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and Taiwan. In contrast, Mexico, La Plata, Sri Lanka, central and western Africa, some parts of India, some parts of coastal Indochina, some parts of East Asia, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, some parts of the South American continent, eastern Australia, some parts of southern Africa, Madagascar, Indonesia, the Philippines, and some parts of Indochina. In contrast, Alaska, Mexico, some parts of La Plata, the Horn of Africa, some parts of central and western Africa, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and some parts of coastal Indochina will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal in the summer. In the autumn, the model still predicts that most of Japan will be hotter than normal.

May 10, 2023
Prediction from 1st May, 2023

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña Modoki-like state persists. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in June. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event will occur in May. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal summer (austral winter), except for coastal Alaska. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions.
As regards the average rainfall in the boreal summer, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, some parts of East Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines, and most parts of Indochina. In contrast, the northeastern U.S.A., Mexico, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, central and western Africa, and some parts of coastal Indochina will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to the combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, some parts of the South American continent, eastern Australia, some parts of East Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines, and some parts of Indochina. In contrast, Alaska, Mexico, Venezuela, some parts of La Plata, New Zealand, the Horn of Africa, some parts of central and western Africa, some parts of western Europe, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and some parts of coastal Indochina will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal in the summer (except for Okinawa, which will be hotter and drier than normal). In autumn, the model also predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and Hokkaido will be wetter than normal.

Apr. 11, 2023
Prediction from 1st Apr., 2023

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña Modoki-like state persists. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in May–July average, except for Alaska, western Canada, some parts of Brazil, some parts of South Asia, and some parts of Russia. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Alaska, some parts of Canada, some parts of Brazil, some parts of Myanmar, and some parts of Russia. In particular, the southern U.S.A., the western part of the South American Continent, Australia, eastern Africa, and the Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions.
As regards the average rainfall from May through July, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southwestern U.S.A., California, northern Mexico, Central America, the northern part of the South American Continent, La Plata, Australia, some parts of East Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines, Indochina, some parts of India, eastern China, and some parts of Eurasia. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of Canada, and the eastern U.S.A., Venezuela, Chile, central and western Africa, some parts of Indochina, and some parts of Eurasia, will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to the combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model also predicts the persistence of a similar condition, except for Central America and India. The northern (most of) India will be a drier (wetter) than normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal in May–July average (except for Tohoku and Okinawa, which will be warmer and drier than normal). In summer, the model also predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal (except for Okinawa, which will be hotter and drier than normal).

Mar. 20, 2023
Prediction from 1st Mar., 2023

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña decayed and a La Niña Modoki-like state has appeared. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is predicted by the SINTEX-F ensemble mean for boreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in April–June average, except for Alaska, western Canada, some parts of Brazil, some parts of India, and some parts of southern Africa. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for Alaska, northern Canada, some parts of Brazil, and northern Russia.
As regards the seasonally averaged rainfall in April–June, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of Canada and the U.S.A., Mexico, central America, the northern part of the South American Continent, La Plata, some parts of West Africa, Australia, Indonesia, Indochina, some parts of China, and some parts of Eurasia. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of Canada, most of Brazil, central Africa, some parts of Europe, some parts of Russia, most of India, northern China, South Korea, and the Philippines will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the North American Continent, Venezuela, Guyana, La Plata, some parts of Indochina, India, West Africa, northern Europe, northern Russia, some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Philippines. In contrast, southern Canada, the central part of the U.S.A., Mexico, Latin America, Colombia, western Brazil, Australia, some parts of central Africa, some parts of Russia, the northern part of China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience drier than normal conditions, owing to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer and wetter than normal in April–June average. In summer, the model also predicts the persistence of a similar condition.

Feb. 16, 2023
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2023

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña-like state starts to decay. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude. In particular, the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is predicted by the SINTEX-F ensemble mean for boreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a normal-state.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring (austral autumn), except for Alaska, western Canada, some parts of Brazil, and India. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition.
As regards the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring (austral autumn), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern part of the U.S., Mexico, the northern part of the South American Continent, La Plata, Chile, Australia, Mozambique, West Africa, regions around the Black Sea, Indonesia, Indochina, and some parts of China. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of Canada, the middle part of the South American Continent, the eastern part of South Africa, central Africa, northern Madagascar, Mauritius, some parts of Europe, some parts of Russia, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Philippines will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the North American Continent, La Plata, some parts of Indochina, central India, northern Europe, northern Russia, some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Philippines. In contrast, the southern parts of the U.S.A., Mexico, the northern part of the South American Continent, Australia, New Zealand, northern India, Nepal, Bhutan, central Africa, most parts of Europe, some parts of Russia, the northern part of China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal spring. The model also predicts that the central part of Japan (Kyushu, Okinawa, and Hokkaido) will experience slightly wetter (drier) than normal conditions in spring. In summer, the model predicts that most of Japan (except for Hokkaido) will experience a slightly warmer-than-normal summer. The model also predicts most of Japan will experience a wetter-than-normal summer as the seasonally average.

Jan. 12, 2023
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2023

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña-like state continues. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and an El Niño will occur in the boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is predicted by the SINTEX-F ensemble mean for boreal summer. The SINTEX-F also predicts that a Ningaloo Niño will occur in the late austral summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in February–April average, except for Alaska, western Canada, the western U.S.A., the northern part of the South American Continent, India, and some parts of Indochina, and the Philippines. In boreal spring (austral autumn), the model also predicts the persistence of a similar condition.
As regards the seasonally averaged rainfall in February–April, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for a southern part of the U. S. A., Mexico, La Plata, some parts of Australia, Mozambique, West Africa, Indonesia, and southeastern China. In contrast, western Canada, the northern half of the South American Continent, central Australia, southern Africa, Madagascar, Mauritius, some parts of Europe, some parts of Russia, Nepal, Bhutan, central China, and the Philippines will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal spring (austral autumn), the model also predicts persistence of a similar condition except for Madagascar, Mauritius, and Bhutan.
The model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in February–April average. The model also predicts that the central part of Japan and Okinawa (Hokkaido) will experience slightly drier (wetter)-than-normal conditions in February–April average. In spring, the model still predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The model also predicts the central part of Japan and Okinawa will experience drier-than-normal conditions in spring.

Dec. 22, 2022
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2022

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña-like state continues. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and then the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state. The model predicts that an El Niño will occur in the boreal summer of 2023.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole has decayed. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the tropical Indian Ocean will be in a neutral state during boreal winter and spring.
The SINTEX-F predicts that a Ningaloo Niño will occur in late austral summer.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in January–March average, except for some parts of Canada, the northern part of the South American Continent, India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and some parts of Indochina. In boreal spring (austral autumn), the model also predicts persistence of a similar condition in some parts of Canada, the northern part of the South American Continent, India, and some parts of Indochina.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in January–March average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most of the U. S. A., Mexico, La Plata, some parts of Australia, Mozambique, central Africa, western Eurasia, and Indonesia. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of Canada, the northern half of the South American Continent, northern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, Madagascar, some parts of Europe, eastern Eurasia, and the Philippines will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal spring (austral autumn), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, most of Canada, some parts of the U. S. A., Mexico, the northern half of the South American Continent, northern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, Madagascar, some parts of Europe, and some parts of Eurasia, and the Philippines. In contrast, the southern/central parts of the U.S.A., central America, some parts of La Plata, southern Australia, central Africa,　some parts of West Africa, most of Indochina, Indonesia, Turkey, western Russia, and the southern/eastern part of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in January–March average. The model also predicts that most of Japan (Hokkaido) will experience a slightly wetter (drier)-than-normal condition in January–March average. In spring, the model still predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The model also predicts most of Japan (Tohoku) will experience a wetter (drier) -than-normal condition in spring.

Nov. 16, 2022
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2022

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña-like state continues. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will persist in boreal mid-winter, and then the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state in late-winter. The model predicts the possibility of an El Niño occurrence in the boreal summer of 2023.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that the on-going negative Indian Ocean Dipole will decay in winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, except for Alaska, western Canada, the northern part of the South American Continent, some parts of Australia, southern Africa, India, Indochina, and some parts of Indonesia. In boreal spring (austral autumn), the model also predicts persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern coastal area of Alaska, most of the U. S. A., Mexico, La Plata, northwestern Australia, East Africa, most part of Europe, most of East Asia, some parts of Eurasia, and Indonesia. In contrast, most of Canada, the northern half of the South American Continent, eastern Australia, Central Africa, southern Africa, Northern Europe, some parts of Eurasia, and the Philippines will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal spring (austral autumn), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern U. S. A., Mexico, some parts of the South American Continent, northern Australia, southern Africa, Central Africa, and some parts of Eurasia. In contrast, the southeastern part of the U.S.A., some parts of La Plata, eastern Australia, East Africa, southern Indochina, Indonesia, some parts of Eurasia, and some parts of East Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged climate, the model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in winter. In spring, the model still predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer -than-normal condition. The model also predicts the northern (southern) part of Japan will experience a wetter (drier) -than-normal condition in spring.

Oct. 13, 2022
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2022

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña-like state continues. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will persist in boreal autumn, and then the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state in mid-winter. However, we note that the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts that the La Niña-like state will persist in mid-winter. The model predicts possibility of an El Niño occurrence in the boreal late spring of 2023.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues. The SINTEX-F predicts that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in autumn, and then decay in winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in November-January average, except for Alaska, the northern part of the South American Continent, southeastern Australia, India, Indochina, and some parts of Indonesia. In boreal winter (austral summer), the model also predicts persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in November-January average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern part of the U. S. A., Mexico, La Plata, Sri Lanka, East Africa, some parts of Europe, most of East Asia, some parts of Eurasia, and some parts of Indochina. In contrast, southern Alaska, most of Canada, Central America, the northern half of the South American Continent, eastern Australia, Central Africa, Northern Europe, some parts of Eurasia, the Philippine, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia (East Africa) may experience wetter (drier) than normal conditions, owing to the negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In boreal winter (austral summer), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, Canada, the northern half of the South American Continent, eastern Australia, some parts of southern Africa, Central Africa, some parts of Eurasia, and the Philippine. In contrast, the southern/eastern parts of the U.S.A., Mexico, La Plata, Western Australia, East Africa, some parts of southern Africa, southern Indochina, Indonesia, some parts of Eurasia, and some parts of East Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged climate, the model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in November-January average. In winter, the model still predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer -than-normal condition. The model also predicts the northern (southern) part of Japan will experience a wetter (drier) -than-normal condition.

Sep. 14, 2022
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2022

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows a recovery of the La Niña-like state. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like state will decay in boreal autumn, and then the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state in winter. The model predicts an occurrence of El Niño in the boreal spring of 2023.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues. The SINTEX-F predicts that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in autumn, and then decay in winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in October-December average, except for the northern part of the South American Continent, southern Australia, India, and some parts of Indochina and Indonesia. In boreal winter (austral summer), the model still predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Canada, the northern part of the South American Continent, Australia, India, most parts of Indochina and Indonesia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in October-December average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of the U. S. A., Mexico, La Plata, Sri Lanka, West and East Africa, some parts of Europe, most of China, some parts of Eurasia, and some parts of Indochina. In contrast, southern Alaska, most of Canada, Central America, the northern half of the South American Continent, eastern/northern Australia, India, Central Africa, Northern Europe, some parts of Eurasia, some parts of Indochina, the Philippine, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia (East Africa) may experience extremely wetter (drier) than normal conditions, owing to the negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In boreal winter (austral summer), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Canada, the northern half of the South American Continent, northern Australia, southeastern Africa, Central Africa, some parts of Europe, and the Philippine. In contrast, most of the U.S.A., La Plata, East Africa, southern Indochina, Indonesia, some parts of Eurasia, and East Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged climate, the model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in boreal autumn and winter.

Aug. 9, 2022
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2022

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows weakening of the La Niña-like state. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like state will decay in boreal autumn, and then the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state in winter. The model predicts an occurrence of El Niño in the boreal spring of 2023.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues to evolve. The SINTEX-F predicts that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole will further develop in boreal summer, mature in autumn, and then decay in winter. About 30% of ensemble members predict occurrence of an extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole when the dipole index is below -1.5ºC.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn (austral spring), except for northern part of the South American Continent, southern Australia, northern Africa, East Africa, India, and some parts of Indochina and Indonesia. In boreal winter (austral summer), the model still predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for northern part of the South American Continent, Australia, India, most parts of Indochina and Indonesia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of the U. S. A., La Plata, Chile, Sri Lanka, West/Central/East Africa, most part of Europe, some part of China, some part of the Eurasia, and some part of Indochina. In contrast, southern Alaska, most part of Canada, Central America, northern part of the South American Continent, eastern Australia, India, Northern Europe, some part of Eurasia, some part of Indochina, Philippine, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia (East Africa) may experience extremely wetter (drier) than normal conditions, owing to the strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In boreal winter (austral summer), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, Australia, southeastern Africa, Central Africa, Northern Europe, and Philippine. In contrast, most parts of the U.S.A., La Plata, East Africa, Sri Lanka, southern Indochina, Indonesia, some part of western Europe, East Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged climate, the model predicts that most parts of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in boreal autumn and winter.

Jul. 20, 2022
Prediction from 1st Jul., 2022

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like state continues. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like state will persist until boreal autumn, and then decay in winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole develops. The SINTEX-F predicts that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole will continue to develop in boreal summer, mature in autumn, and then decay in winter. 30% of ensemble members predict occurrence of an extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole when the dipole index is below -1.5ºC.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in August–October average, except for northern Canada, Central America, northern part of the South American Continent, southern Australia, northern Africa, India, and some parts of Indochina and Indonesia. In boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in August–October average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of the U. S. A., La Plata, Chile, Sri Lanka, West/Central Africa, Southeastern Africa, most part of Europe, some part of China, some part of the Eurasia, and some part of Indochina. In contrast, southern Alaska, most part of Canada, Central America, northern part of the South American Continent, eastern Australia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, Northern Europe, some part of China, some part of Eurasia, some part of Indochina, Philippine, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn (austral spring), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northern/western Canada, Central America, northern part of the South American Continent, Australia, Northern Europe, India, some part of Indochina, Philippine, and Indonesia. In contrast, most parts of the U.S.A., La Plata, most parts of West/Central Africa, East Africa, Sri Lanka, southern Indochina, most part of Europe, some parts of Eurasia, East Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia (East Africa) may experience extremely wetter (drier) than normal conditions, owing to the expected strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole together with the La Niña-like state.
The model predicts most parts of Japan will experience a hotter and drier-than-normal condition in August–October average and boreal autumn.

Jun. 15, 2022
Prediction from 1st Jun., 2022

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like state continues. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like state will persist until boreal mid-autumn, and then decay in late boreal autumn.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is now observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole will continue to develop in early boreal summer, mature in early boreal autumn, and then decay in winter. There is 80% chance of occurrence of an extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole when the dipole index is below -1.5ºC.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in July–September average, except for Alaska, northern part of the South American Continent, southern Australia, most part of the Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and some parts of Indonesia. In boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for northern part of the South American Continent, southern Australia, some parts of northern Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, some parts of Indochina, and some parts of Indonesia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in July–September, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the North American Continent, northern part of the South American Continent, La Plata, Chile, West/Central Africa, northern Mediterranean, some part of China, some part of the Eurasia, some part of Indochina, and Philippine. In contrast, most part of Alaska, western/northern Canada, Central America, Venezuela, Guyana, eastern Australia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, some part of China, some part of Eurasia, some part of Indochina, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn (austral spring), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northern/western Canada, Central America, most part of the South American Continent, Australia, Madagascar, India, some part of Indochina, Philippine, and Indonesia. In contrast, most part of U.S.A., La Plata, most parts of West/Central Africa, East Africa, Sri Lanka, southern Indochina, some part of Europe, and some parts of Eurasia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia (East Africa) may experience extremely wetter (drier) than normal condition, owing to the expected extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole together with the La Niña-like state.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a hotter and drier-than-normal condition in July–September average. In boreal autumn, most part of Japan will experience a warmer condition and some part of Japan will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.

May 11, 2022
Prediction from 1st May, 2022

ENSO forecast:
A La Niña-like state is now observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like state will persist until boreal mid-autumn, and then decay in late boreal autumn.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The whole tropical Indian Ocean is now warmer-than-normal. However, the SINTEX-F predicts that an extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole will occur in early boreal summer.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal summer (austral winter), except for Alaska, western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, western Australia, some parts of the African Continent, India, and some parts of Indonesia. In boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for Alaska, northern part of the South American Continent, southern Australia, some parts of northern Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, some parts of Indochina, and some parts of Indonesia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer (austral winter), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the North American Continent, La Plata, Chile, Central Africa, northern Mediterranean, western part of China, some part of the Eurasia, and some part of Indochina. In contrast, most part of Alaska, western/northern Canada, western Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Guyana, Australia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, some part of China, some part of Eurasia, some part of Indochina, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn (austral spring), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northern Canada, western U.S.A., most part of the South American Continent, Australia, northern Europe, India, southern parts of China, some parts of Eurasia, most part of Indochina, and Indonesia. In contrast, most part of U.S.A., La Plata, most parts of West/Central Africa, some part of East Africa, some part of Europe, and some parts of Eurasia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia (East Africa) may experience extremely wetter (drier) than normal condition, owing to the expected co-occurrence of an extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a La Niña-like state.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in boreal summer and autumn.

Apr. 13, 2022
Prediction from 1st April, 2022

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, a La Niña Modoki-like state is now observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña Modoki-like state will weaken later, and then decay in early boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A neutral-state is now observed in the tropical Indian Ocean. The SINTEX-F predicts that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole will occur in boreal mid-summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction.
As predicted earlier, the Ningaloo Niño decayed in austral mid-autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in May–July average, except for Alaska, western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, and some parts of Indochina, India, and Northern Europe. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model also predicts persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in May–July average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of U.S.A., some part of the South American Continent, Central Africa, northern Mediterranean, some part of the Middle East, southern part of China, and some part of the Eurasia. In contrast, most part of Canada, Mexico, Central America, northern Brazil, eastern Australia, India, Sri Lanka, some part of Indochina, Indonesia, Philippines, some part of China, the Korean Peninsula, and some part of Eurasia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, northern Canada, western Mexico, Venezuela, Guyana, eastern Australia, some part of East Africa, India, Nepal, Indonesia, most part of Indochina, and some parts of China, and some parts of Eurasia. In contrast, most part of U.S.A., some part of the South American Continent, some parts of West/Central Africa, most part of Europe, and some parts of Eurasia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a warmer and wetter-than-normal condition (except for central Japan) in May–July average. The model also predicts a hotter-than-normal condition over most part of Japan in boreal summer. As regards to the rainfall, the model predicts wetter(drier)-than-normal condition over northern and southern (central) Japan.

Mar. 24, 2022
Prediction from 1st March, 2022

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like state is still observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like state will weaken later, and then decay in boreal early summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A neutral-state is now observed in the tropical Indian Ocean. The SINTEX-F predicts that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole will occur in boreal late summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction.
The Ningaloo Niño is still observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the Ningaloo Niño will decay in austral mid-autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in April–June average, except for Alaska, western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, and some parts of Indochina, India, Northern Europe, and southern Africa. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model still predicts most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for Alaska, western Canada, northeastern part of the South American Continent, India, and Northern Europe.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in April–June average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for southern coastal regions of Alaska, most part of U.S.A., the South American Continent, northern Mediterranean, some parts of the Middle East, and southeastern parts of China. In contrast, most part of Canada, Mexico, Central America, Brazil, Australia, central Africa, Scandinavia, India, Sri Lanka, Indochina, Indonesia, Philippines, some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and some parts of Eurasia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, some parts of Canada, Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Guyana, eastern Australia, some part of central Africa, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Indonesia, most part of Indochina, and some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and some parts of Eurasia. In contrast, most part of U.S.A., the South American Continent, some parts of West/Central Africa, most part of Europe, Philippines, and some parts of Eurasia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition (except for northern Japan) in April–June average. The model also predicts persistence of a similar condition in boreal summer.

Feb. 16, 2022
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2022

ENSO forecast:
A canonical-type La Niña is now observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña state will weaken later, and then decay in boreal early summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A neutral-state is now observed in the tropical Indian Ocean. The SINTEX-F predicts that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole will occur in boreal late summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction.
As predicted earlier, observation shows that the Ningaloo Niño occurred in January. The SINTEX-F predicts that the Ningaloo Niño will persist in austral early autumn, then decay later.
Regional forecast:

On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring (austral autumn), except for Alaska, western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, and some parts of Indochina. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model still predicts most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for Alaska, northeastern part of the South American Continent, South Africa, India, Northern Europe, and some parts of eastern/western Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring (austral autumn), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for southern coastal regions of Alaska, most part of U.S.A., La Plata Basin, northern Mediterranean, some parts of the Middle East, Indonesia, and southeastern parts of China. In contrast, most part of Canada, Mexico, Central America, Brazil, northern/western Australia, southern Africa, central Africa, Scandinavia, India, Sri Lanka, Indochina, Philippines, some parts of China and Eurasia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Guyana, eastern Australia, some part of central Africa, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Indonesia, most part of Indochina, and some parts of China and Eurasia. In contrast, most part of U.S.A., the South American Continent, some parts of West/Central Africa, most part of Europe, Philippines, and some parts of Eurasia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition (except for Hokkaido) in boreal spring. The model also predicts persistence of a similar condition in boreal summer.

Feb. 15, 2021
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2021

ENSO forecast:
Observation continues to show a La Niña Modoki-like state. The SINTEX-F continues to predict that this La Niña Modoki-like state will start to decay from early boreal spring. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from late spring.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is a neutral state. The ensemble mean prediction suggests that the present condition will persist this year. Observation also shows the occurrence of Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia, and the prediction suggests that it will persist in austral autumn (boreal spring).
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring (austral autumn) except for Alaska, western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, and Indochina Peninsula. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model predicts persistence of a similar condition except for Indochina Peninsula.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring (austral autumn), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S.A., La Plata Basin, southeastern China, and Indonesia. In contrast, Canada, most part of Brazil, Philippines, Indochina Peninsula, India, Sri Lanka, and northern China will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for India, Philippines, and Indonesia. In contrast, eastern U.S.A, many parts of the South American Continent, central Africa, western Russia, and western China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in spring and summer as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, Kyushu and Okinawa will experience a drier-than-normal condition in spring. In summer, Honshu (except for Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku) will experience a drier-than-normal condition.

Jan. 15, 2021
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2021

ENSO forecast:
Observation now shows a La Niña Modoki-like state, as predicted earlier. The SINTEX-F continues to predict that this La Niña Modoki-like state will persist in this boreal winter. Then, it will start to decay from boreal spring. We need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of a canonical La Niña.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is a neutral state. The ensemble mean prediction suggests that the present condition will persist in the first half of this year.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring (austral autumn) except for Alaska, western Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, western Australia, Indochina Peninsula, and India.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring (austral autumn), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S.A., La Plata Basin, southwestern Africa, southern Europe facing the Mediterranean Sea, some part of the Middle East, eastern China, and Indonesia. In contrast, Canada, most part of Brazil, Philippines, Indochina Peninsula, India, Sri Lanka, and western China will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in spring as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, most part of Japan (except for Kyushu and Okinawa) will experience a slightly wetter-than-normal condition.

Dec. 17, 2020
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2020

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, observation now shows a La Niña Modoki-like state. The SINTEX-F predicts that this La Niña Modoki-like state will persist in this boreal winter. Then, it will start to decay from the boreal spring of 2021. We need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of a canonical La Niña.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is a neutral state. The ensemble mean prediction suggests that the present condition will persist in the first half of 2021.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter except for Alaska, northern Brazil, southwestern Australia, southern Saudi Arabia, Indochina Peninsula, and India. In boreal spring, the model predicts persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for southern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, La Plata Basin, southwestern Africa, southern Europe facing the Mediterranean Sea, some part of the Middle East, eastern China, and Indonesia. In contrast, Canada, most part of Brazil, western/eastern Australia, eastern part of South Africa, Philippines, and northern Europe will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of Canada, Mexico, northwestern Brazil, northern Australia, Indochina Peninsula, Philippines, West Africa, northern Europe, and eastern Russia. In contrast, most part of U.S.A (including California), southern Europe, southeastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in winter and spring as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, most part of Japan (except for Hokkaido) will experience a drier-than-normal condition in winter. In spring, western part of Japan will experience slightly drier-than-normal conditions.

Nov. 12, 2020
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the SST anomalies associated with the developing La Niña have covered most part of the tropical Pacific now. The SINTEX-F predicts that this La Niña will be more La Niña Modoki-like and will persist in this year. Then, it will start to decay from the boreal spring of 2021. We need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of a canonical La Niña.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble mean prediction suggests that the present condition will return to a neutral state in the boreal spring of 2021.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter except for Alaska, western Canada, Greenland, northern Brazil, Indochina Peninsula, and India. In boreal spring, the model predicts the persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for southern Alaska, southern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, La Plata Basin, southern Africa, southern Europe facing the Mediterranean Sea, eastern China, and Indonesia. In contrast, western Canada, most part of Brazil, northern Australia, Philippines, northern Europe, and northern Eurasia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, northern Australia, Indochina Peninsula, Philippines, central Africa, northern Europe, northeastern China, eastern Russia, and the Korean Peninsula. In contrast, western part of U.S.A (including California), some part of southern Africa, southern Europe, southeastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in winter and spring as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, southern part of Japan will experience a drier-than-normal condition in winter. In spring, northern and southern parts of Japan will experience slightly wetter-than-normal conditions.

Oct. 15, 2020
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña continues to develop. The SINTEX-F predicts that this La Niña will be more La Niña Modoki-like and will persist in this year. Then, it will start to decay from early 2021. We need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of a canonical La Niña.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble mean prediction suggests that the present condition will return to a neutral state in winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter except for northern Brazil, southern Australia Indochina Peninsula, and India. In boreal spring, the model predicts the persistence of a similar condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S.A., Mexico, La Plata Basin, southern Africa, Turkey, and southern China. In contrast, western Canada, Brazil, Australia, Philippines, and Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Canada, Brazil, Indochina Peninsula, and Philippines. In contrast, most part of U.S.A., La Plata Basin, some part of East Africa, eastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in winter and spring as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, most part of Japan will experience a drier-than-normal condition in winter. In spring, northern and southern parts of Japan will experience slightly wetter-than-normal conditions.

Sep. 16, 2020
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña continues to develop. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like condition will persist in this year with weak anomaly in December-February.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows a weak negative IOD-like condition in the tropical Indian Ocean at present. The ensemble mean prediction suggests that the present condition will return to a neutral state from mid-autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southwestern Australia, India, Thailand, and northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Canada, northern Brazil, southern Australia, and India.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for a southern/central part of U.S.A., Mexico, Chile, La Plata Basin, West Africa, southern China, some parts of the Russian Far East, most part of Southeast Asia, and most part of Europe. In contrast, western Canada, most part of the South American Continent, India, some parts of southern Africa, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, most part of U.S.A., northern part of the South American Continent, Philippines, and some parts of Indonesia. In contrast, southeastern U.S.A., Mexico, La Plata Basin, most of Australia, some part of southern Africa, most part of Europe, and some part of Southeast Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in autumn and winter as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, most part of Japan will experience drier-than-normal condition in autumn. In winter, southern part of Japan will experience drier-than-normal condition.

Aug. 13, 2020
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that a La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year with weak anomaly in December-February.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is slightly warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble mean suggests that the warmer condition will persist in autumn, then will return to a neutral state from winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southern Australia, India, and some parts of northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Brazil, India, and some parts of Southeast Asia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for southern/central part of U.S.A., Mexico, some parts of the South American Continent, southern Africa, West Africa, southern China, some parts of the Russian Far East, and most part of Europe. In contrast, western Canada, India, some parts of East Africa, Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, northwestern coastal area of Canada, northern Europe, northern part of the South American Continent, most part of Australia, Philippines, and some parts of Indonesia. In contrast, western/southern U.S.A., Mexico, Argentina, DRC, Mozambique, southern Europe, eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in autumn and winter as a seasonal average. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, most part of Japan, except for Hokkaido, will experience wetter-than-normal condition in autumn and drier-than-normal condition in winter.

July 17, 2020
Prediction issued on July 1, 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that a weak La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble meam suggests that the warmer condition will persist in autumn, then will return to a neutral-state from winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction as some of the members (specially, of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system) actually predict a weak negative IOD event in autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southwestern Australia, India, and some parts of northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Brazil, western Australia, India, and some parts of the Indochina Peninsula.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the South American Continent, southern Africa, West Africa, China, some parts of Europe. In contrast, most part of Northern America, Mexico, India, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, a northern part of the South American Continent, northern Australia, western Europe, Philippines, eastern Indonesia, and Madagascar. In contrast, southern U.S.A., southern part of the South American Continent, central Africa, Spain, Portugal, western Indonesia, eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience slightly warmer-than-normal condition in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal condition.

June 10, 2020
Prediction issued on June 1, 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that a weak La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the western tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The model predicts the evolution of a moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from boreal summer. The predicted IOD will quickly decay in boreal autumn, in which a typical IOD usually matures. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction (15% of the ensemble members actually predict a negative IOD event).
The strong negative Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole still persists. The model predicts that it will disappear from austral winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal summer and autumn.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the South American Continent, South Africa, West Africa, central China, and western Indonesia. In contrast, most part of southern U.S.A., Mexico, India, Southeast Asia, Philippines, eastern Indonesia, eastern China, and the Korean Peninsula will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, India, Southeast Asia, Philippines, and Indonesia. In contrast, eastern U.S.A., western part of the South American Continent, eastern part of South Africa, some part of West Africa, southeastern Europe facing the Mediterranean Sea will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience hotter-than-normal condition in summer as a seasonal average. In autumn, most part of Japan will experience hotter- and wetter-than-normal condition.

May 14, 2020
Prediction issued on May 1, 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that almost all of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The model predicts the evolution of a moderately negative Indian Ocean Dipole from boreal summer.
The strong negative Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole still persists. The model predicts that it will disappear from austral winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal summer and autumn.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for central part of U.S.A., California, northern part of the South American Continent, and West Africa. In contrast, most part of Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, India, eastern China, and the Korean Peninsula will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, most part of the South American Continent, Philippines, and Indonesia. In contrast, northwestern part of southern Africa, southern part of West Africa, India, some parts of the Southeast Asia, southern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal condition in summer and autumn as a seasonal average.

Apr. 16, 2020
Prediction issued on Apr. 1, 2020

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows a mixture of the El Niño Modoki-type and the canonical-type at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The model predicts that the present state will persist through the latter half of this year. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction (30% of the ensemble members actually predict a positive IOD event).
The strong negative Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole still persists. The model predicts that it will disappear from austral winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal summer and autumn.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of U.S.A., northern part of the South American Continent, South Africa, southern part of West Africa, Indonesia, and southwestern China. In contrast, Mexico, most part of Southeast Asia, Philippines, India, and Sri Lanka will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of Southeast Asia, India, Philippines, and Indonesia. In contrast, central U.S.A., Mexico, most part of the South American Continent, southern Africa, southern part of West Africa, and some parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal condition in summer as a seasonal average. In autumn, most part of Japan will be warmer and slightly wetter-than-normal.

Mar. 12, 2020
Prediction from 1st Mar., 2020

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state has started to decay. The SINTEX-F predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Now, the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal. The model predicts the evolution of a moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole from boreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction (some members actually predict a negative event) at present.
As predicted earlier, the strong negative Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole still persists although it has been decaying from January.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring. In boreal summer, almost all part of the globe will still experience a hotter-than-normal condition, except for northeastern Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for western U.S.A., Brazil, most part of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, eastern Australia, and southern Africa. In contrast, eastern U.S.A., northern Brazil, central Africa, India, Sri Lanka, western China, and U.K. will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Mexico, India, some parts of Southeast Asia, Philippines, and eastern China. In contrast, California, northwestern Brazil, southern Australia, northern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and slightly wetter-than-normal condition in the coming spring as a seasonal average. In summer, most part of Japan will be warmer and wetter-than-normal.

Feb. 17, 2020
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2020

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state has been observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole disappeared. Now, the whole tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal. The model predicts the evolution of another moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole from boreal summer. There is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present due to the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.
As predicted earlier, the Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia disappeared.
The strong negative Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole reached the peak in December 2019, and then started to decay in January 2020. The model predicts that it will persist until late austral summer.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring, except for eastern U.S.A and eastern Brazil. In boreal summer, almost all part of the globe will still experience a hotter-than-normal condition, except for northwestern Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for western U.S.A., northern Brazil, most part of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, and northern Australia. In contrast, eastern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, East Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for southern part of West Africa, some parts of Southeast Asia, Philippines. In contrast, northern Brazil, east¬¬¬¬¬ern Australia, around Guinea, northeastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in the coming spring as a seasonal average. In summer, most part of Japan (except for northern part) will be slightly warmer and drier-than-normal.

Jan. 17, 2020
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2020

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state has been observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that a weak El Niño Modoki-like pattern will persist at least until boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole almost disappeared. However, the model predicts the evolution of another moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole from boreal summer. There is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present due to the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index. The Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia has quickly emerged in December 2019. The model predicts that the Ningaloo Niño will persist until late austral summer. The strong negative Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole has quickly emerged in September 2019, and then reached the peak in December. The model predicts that it will persist until late austral summer.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring. In boreal summer, almost all part of the globe will still experience a hotter-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for northern Brazil, most part of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, and eastern Australia. In boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern Brazil, southern part of West Africa, some parts of Southeast Asia, Philippines. In contrast, Mexico, northeastern Brazil, east¬¬¬¬¬ern Australia, northern part of West Africa, some part of India, northeastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and slightly drier-than-normal condition in the coming spring as a seasonal average. In summer, most part of Japan will be slightly warmer and wetter than-normal.

Dec. 13, 2019
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state has been observed. The SINTEX-F predicts that a weak El Niño-like pattern (possibly a mixture of Modoki-type and canonical-type) will persist at least until boreal summer of year 2020.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole reached the peak in October-November, and then started to decay. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will disappear in January.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe, particularly Eurasia and Canada, will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, except for some parts of U.S.A, eastern Russia, West/Central Africa and southwestern China. In boreal spring, almost all part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for some parts of southeastern Canada, northeastern U.S.A, Bangladesh, and its surrounding regions.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, northwestern coastal area of Canada, eastern Brazil, East Africa, and northern part of Europe, and eastern China. In contrast, some parts of western U.S.A., northern part of the South American continent, western Brazil, southern/central Africa, southern part of Europe, most part of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In boreal spring of year 2020, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern U.S.A., some parts of southern Africa, and Bangladesh. In contrast, western U.S.A., most part of eastern Brazil, western Australia, western part of southern Africa, West Africa, Europe, some parts of Southeast Asia, Philippines, and eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and slightly drier-than-normal condition in the coming winter and spring as a seasonal average.

Nov. 15, 2019
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state is observed now. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist at least until early winter. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the model predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from late winter through year 2020.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is now fully established reaching a level similar to that of the extremely strong events of 1994 and 1997. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in late autumn, and then decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in autumn and winter; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe, particularly Australia, will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, except for most part of eastern U.S.A, northeastern Brazil, U.K., central Russia, northern part of the Indian subcontinent, and some parts of China. In boreal spring of year 2020, almost all part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for U.K. and some parts of western Europe.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, northeastern Brazil, East Africa, and northern part of Europe, and eastern China. In contrast, some parts of western U.S.A., northern part of the South American continent, southeastern Brazil, Australia, southern Africa, southern part of Europe, some parts of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In boreal spring of year 2020, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northeastern U.S.A., northwestern part of the South American continent, South Africa, and eastern China. In contrast, most part of Brazil, Australia, western part of West Africa, some parts of Southeast Asia, Philippines, and southern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and slightly drier-than-normal condition in the coming winter and spring as a seasonal average.

Oct. 18, 2019
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state is observed now. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist at least until the autumn. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the model predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from the winter through the first half of year 2020.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole quickly emerged in May, and now reached a level similar to that of the strong events of 1994, 1997, and 2006. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in the autumn, and then quickly decay in the winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in the autumn; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal winter, except for most part of U.S.A, West Africa, Western Europe and some parts of East Africa. In the boreal spring of year 2020, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for some parts of western Canada, southern Africa, Australia, Iran, northwestern China, Mongolia, and central Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in the boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for southern coastal area of Alaska, eastern U.S.A., most parts of Brazil, northern Australia, and most parts of southern and eastern Africa. In contrast, some parts of western U.S.A., northern part of the South American continent, Argentina, western Australia, northeastern part of South Africa, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In the boreal spring of year 2020, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern/western U.S.A., most part of the South American continent, and China. In contrast, central U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, eastern part of Australia, western part of southern Africa, most parts of West Africa, Europe, Indonesia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in the winter as a seasonal average. In the spring of year 2020, most part of Japan will be still warmer-than-normal.

Sep. 17, 2019
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state is observed now. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist at least until autumn. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the model predicts that an El Niño-like pattern (looks a mixture of Modoki-type and canonical-type) will appear in the tropical Pacific from winter through the first half of year 2020.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole quickly emerged in the May, and now reached a level similar to that of the strong events of 1994, 1997, and 2006. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in autumn, and then quickly decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in autumn; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southern part of the South American Continent, and some parts of West Africa. In boreal winter, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for some parts of U.S.A, Argentina, Scandinavia, and Greenland.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for southern coastal area of Alaska, U.S.A., East and West Africa, Europe, most part of Southeast Asia. In contrast, some parts of Canada, Mexico, Brazil, southern Africa, western Russia, northern India, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, and the Korean Peninsula will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (see schematic of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/iod/about_iod.html). In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal condition, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, northwestern coastal area of Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, northern Argentina, eastern parts of southern Africa, Europe, western Russia, India and southern China. In contrast, southeastern Brazil, western part of southern Africa, Scandinavia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, and the Korean Peninsula will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer- and wetter-than-normal in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will be still warmer, but slightly drier-than-normal.

Aug. 19, 2019
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state is observed now. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist until late autumn. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the whole tropical Pacific is expected to be warmer-than-normal during winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole quickly emerged in May and now persists. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in autumn, and then quickly decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in summer and autumn; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southeastern U.S.A., southern part of the South American Continent, and eastern Russia. In boreal winter, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for some parts of Alaska, U.K., Scandinavia, some part of northern India, southwestern China, and eastern Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for western coastal area of Canada, southern part of Chili, southern West Africa, most part of Southeast Asia. In contrast, some parts of U.S.A., Brazil, western Russia, most part of India, Indonesia, Philippines and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (see schematic of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/iod/about_iod.html). In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal condition, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for western coastal area of Canada, northwestern U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, some parts of southern Africa, Europe, India and southern China. In contrast, eastern U.S.A., southeastern Brazil, eastern part of southern Africa, Scandinavia, western Australia, Indonesia and Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will be still warmer, but slightly wetter-than-normal.

Jul. 17, 2019
Prediction from 1st Jul., 2019

ENSO forecast:
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed now for the central tropical Pacific. As predicted earlier, this is similar to the El Niño Modoki-like state. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist until late summer. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the tropical Pacific is expected to return to a normal state by mid-autumn.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole quickly emerged in May and now persists. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in autumn, and then quickly decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in summer and autumn; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in boreal autumn. In boreal winter, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for some parts of central U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, Angola, western Africa, and eastern Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for western coastal area of Canada, Mexico, East Africa, southern West Africa, India, most part of Southeast Asia, and southern Philippines. In contrast, some parts of U.S.A., the South American Continent, southern Africa, western Europe, eastern China, most part of Indonesia, and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (see schematic of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/iod/about_iod.html). In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal condition, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Alaska, western coastal area of Canada, eastern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, some parts of East Africa and central Africa, and northern Europe. In contrast, western U.S.A., eastern part of southern Africa, southern Europe, Australia, most part of Southeast Asia, southeastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer- and wetter-than-normal condition in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will be still warmer-than-normal condition.

Jun. 14, 2019
Prediction from 1st Jun., 2019

ENSO forecast:
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed now for the whole tropical Pacific. Since the warm anomaly is larger in the central Pacific, this is similar to the El Niño Modoki-like state. The SINTEX-F predicts a moderate El Niño event. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type with a peak in late summer. We need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has quickly emerged in May. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will have a peak in autumn, and then quickly decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the latter half of 2019; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in boreal summer, while some part of central U.S.A, central Russia, and northern Australia will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for some parts of southeastern U.S.A., northwestern Brazil, East Africa, eastern Europe and central Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S.A., northwestern part of the South American Continent, most part of Southeast Asia, and northern Philippines. In contrast, Mexico, India, West Africa, eastern China, Mongolia, Australia, and most part of Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northern part of the South American Continent, East Africa, tropical West Africa, and northern India. In contrast, southern Brazil, eastern part of southern Africa, western Europe, Australia, most part of Southeast Asia, eastern China, Philippines, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (see schematic of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/iod/about_iod.html). In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal condition, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience hotter- and drier-than-normal condition in summer and autumn as a seasonal average.

May 17, 2019
Prediction from 1st May 2019

ENSO forecast:
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed now for the whole tropical Pacific. The SINTEX-F predicts that the current state will continue in early summer. Then, the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by mid-late summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The model predicts the evolution of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole from boreal summer.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in boreal summer, while some part of northern Canada, Argentina, and central Russia will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for central Canada, northern Brazil and East Africa.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for southeastern U.S.A., northern part of the South American Continent, tropical West Africa, most part of Southeast Asia, and Philippines. In contrast, Mexico, southern part of the South American Continent, western India, eastern China, eastern Russia, Australia, and most part of Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Baja California, northern part of the South American Continent, some parts of Southern Africa, East Africa, tropical West Africa, most part of Southeast Asia, western India, and Philippines. In contrast, eastern U.S.A., Mexico, southern part of the South American Continent, Europe, Australia, northern India, eastern China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Some of them will be partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (see schematic of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/iod/about_iod.html).
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience hotter- and wetter-than-normal condition in summer as a seasonal average. Monthly prediction (not shown) suggests an active rainy season (Baiu) in June. In autumn, most part of Japan will experience warmer and relatively drier-than-normal conditions.

Apr. 15, 2019
Prediction from 1st Apr., 2019

ENSO forecast:
El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state was developed again as predicted from February 1st 2019 after slightly weakening in January. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed now for the whole tropical Pacific. The SINTEX-F predicts that the current state will continue in boreal spring. Then, the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The model predicts the evolution of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole from boreal summer. The Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia was developed again as predicted from February 1st 2019 after slightly weakening in January as similar to the El Niño state. The model predicts that the Ningaloo Niña will quickly decay in late austral autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in boreal summer, while Argentina, southeastern Russia, and northern Europe will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, most part of the globe will still experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for northern Brazil and central Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northern part of the South American Continent, southern West Africa, most part of Southeast Asia, southern China, and southern Philippines. In contrast, eastern Canada, India, and most part of Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In boreal autumn, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for western coastal area of Canada, northern part of the South American Continent, some parts of Southern Africa, most part of Southeast Asia, and Philippines. In contrast, southern part of the South American Continent, Australia, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may experience warmer and drier than normal condition in austral spring.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience hotter-than-normal condition in summer and autumn as a seasonal average.

Mar. 20, 2019
Prediction from 1st Mar., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in last autumn. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed now for the whole tropical Pacific. The SINTEX-F predicts that the current state will continue in spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia has actually emerged and the amplitude quickly amplified in late austral spring. The model predicts that the Ningaloo Niña will continue in early austral autumn, and then decay in late austral autumn. The model predicts the evolution of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole from late summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the amplitude at present.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring, while some parts of western U.S.A. and most part of Russia will experience a colder-than-normal condition. In boreal summer, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for southern China, central Russia, and most parts of Europe.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of U.S.A., western part of the South American Continent, eastern China, most part of Indonesia. In contrast, Mexico, region around Venezuela, northern Brazil, Australia, East/West/Southern Africa, northern part of Europe, India, most part of Southeast Asia, and the Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for Canada, region around Venezuela, Rio de la Plata Basin, southern West Africa, northern/eastern Europe, central Russia, most part of Southeast Asia, and southern China. In contrast, southern U.S.A., Mexico, Australia, northern West Africa, India, Mongolia, a northern part of the Philippines, Indonesia, and Korean Peninsula will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may experience warmer and drier than normal condition in austral winter.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in spring as a seasonal average. In boreal summer, most part of Japan may experience hotter- and drier-than-normal condition.

Feb. 20, 2019
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in last autumn. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed in this winter for the whole tropical Pacific. The SINTEX-F predicts that the current state will continue in spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia has actually emerged and the amplitude quickly amplified in late austral spring. The model predicts that the Ningaloo Niña will continue in early austral autumn, and then decay in late austral autumn. The model predicts the evolution of a moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole from late summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present because of the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring, while some parts of southern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, northeastern China, and most part of Europe will experience a colder-than-normal condition. In boreal summer, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for eastern Canada, Mongolia, western China, and western Russia.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of southeastern/western U.S.A., eastern Brazil, eastern China, Korean Peninsula, most part of southern Africa, and Indonesia. In contrast, northeastern U.S.A., southern Mexico, region around Venezuela, western Brazil, northern/western Australia, West Africa, India, most part of Southeast Asia, and the Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may continue to experience extremely hotter and drier than normal condition. In boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for region around Venezuela, southern West Africa, and most part of Southeast Asia. In contrast, southern Mexico, western Australia, northern West Africa, India, a northern part of the Philippines, Indonesia, and Korean Peninsula will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in spring as a seasonal average. In boreal summer, most part of Japan may experience drier-than-normal condition.

Jan. 20, 2019
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2019

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in October. Now, warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is observed for the whole tropical Pacific. The SINTEX-F predicts that the current state will continue in spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia has actually emerged and the amplitude quickly amplified in November. The model predicts that the Ningaloo Niña will continue in early austral autumn, then quickly decay in late austral autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring, while some parts of Alaska, southern U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, eastern Russia, southwestern China, northern India, northwestern Africa, and most part of Western Europe will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the western coast of Canada, southeastern/western U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, western equatorial part of Africa, eastern China, Korean Peninsula, southeastern India, Indonesia, and Europe. In contrast, northeastern U.S.A., Mexico, region around Venezuela, Brazil (except for northeastern part), Australia, most part of southern Africa, West Africa, western Russia, most part of Southeast Asia, and the Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may continue to experience extremely hotter and drier than normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal condition in spring as a seasonal average.

Dec. 19, 2018
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2018

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in October. The SINTEX-F continues to predict a moderate El Niño event that reaches its peak in late winter. This El Niño looks a mixture of Modoki-type and canonical-type and its impact may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged in July and the amplitude was enhanced in September. The model predicts that the positive IOD will quickly decay in winter. The Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia will reach its peak in early austral fall.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, while some parts of southern U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, eastern Russia, western China, northern Africa, and southeastern Europe will experience a colder-than-normal condition. In boreal spring, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while U.S.A., northeastern China, Eurasian Continent, northern India, eastern Europe, and U.K. will experience a colder-than-normal condition. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the western coast of Canada, southeastern/western U.S.A., eastern Brazil, western part of southern Africa, eastern China, and northeastern India. In contrast, northeastern U.S.A., Central America, northern part of the South American Continent, northwestern Brazil, Australia, eastern part of southern Africa, Europe, eastern Russia, southern part of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and western part of Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may continue to experience extremely drier than normal condition.
In boreal spring, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of U.S.A., western part of the South American Continent, eastern part of southern Africa, East Asia, and Indonesia. In contrast, the western coast of Canada, Mexico, Central America, northern part of the South American Continent, Brazil, Australia, western part of southern Africa, West Africa, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and southern part of India will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may continue to experience drier than normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal condition in winter and spring as a seasonal average.

Nov. 21, 2018
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2018

ENSO forecast:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in October. The SINTEX-F continues to predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño event that reaches its peak in late winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged in July and the amplitude was enhanced in September. The model predicts that the positive IOD will quickly decay in winter. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. The Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia will reach its peak in late winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, while most parts of U.S.A., eastern Russia, western China, northern India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and U.K. will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the western coast of Canada, eastern/southwestern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, a eastern part of South Africa, central Africa, Europe, and eastern China, and northern India. In contrast, northwestern U.S.A., Central America, a northern part of the South American Continent, northwestern Brazil, Australia, a western part of southern Africa, northern Mozambique, eastern Tanzania, a northwestern part of Northern Europe, western Russia, a southern part of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and a western part of Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. We notice that Australia may continue to experience extremely drier than normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal and the northern (southern) part will be drier (wetter)-than-normal condition in winter as a seasonal average.

Oct. 15, 2018
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F continues to predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño event that may emerge in fall and reach its peak in late winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged in July and the amplitude was enhanced in September. The model predicts the positive IOD to continue in fall and quickly decay in winter. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We also expect the Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia to continue through winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, while most parts of U.S.A., central Russia, and U.K. will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of the western coast of Canada, eastern U.S.A., northeastern Brazil, a central part of the South American Continent, a northeastern part of South Africa, western Europe, and eastern China. In contrast, northwestern/central U.S.A., Central America, a northern part of the South American Continent, northwestern Brazil, Australia, a western part of southern Africa, northern Mozambique, eastern Tanzania, Turkey, a northwestern part of Northern Europe, western Russia, a southern part of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and a western part of Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal condition, owing to the co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal condition in winter as a seasonal average.

Sep. 25, 2018
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F continues to predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño event that may emerge in fall and reach its peak in winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged during July. In particular, we can see the cold sea surface temperature in the eastern pole clearly. The model predicts the positive IOD to continue during the boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the boreal fall and winter seasons of 2018; this is as we observed in 1994 (with El Niño Modoki) or 1997 and 2015 (with El Niño).
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in fall, while some parts of South Africa, southern Russia, U.K. West Africa, and northern Canada will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In winter, most part of the globe will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while eastern Australia, northern Africa, Europe, and western China will experience a relatively cold condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal fall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most part of western Canada, southwestern/eastern U.S.A., and West Africa. In contrast, northwestern/central U.S.A., Brazil, East Africa, eastern Europe, western Russia, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may experience extremely drier than normal condition, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state. In winter, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in southern Brazil, U.K., southern India, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, western Indonesia and Australia. On the other hand, most parts of U.S.A, northern Brazil, western South America continent, northern South Africa, Europe, West Asia, and southern China will be wetter-than-normal.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience warmer and drier-than-normal condition in fall and winter as a seasonal average.

Aug. 20, 2018
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in early fall and reach its peak in winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged in July. The model continues predicting the positive IOD for the boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the latter half of 2018; this is as we observed in 1994 (with El Niño Modoki) or 1997 and 2015 (with El Niño).
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in fall, while some parts of southern Africa and Tibet will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In winter, most part of the globe will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while southern Alaska, western U.S.A., northern Brazil, Botswana, northern India, Iran, Afghanistan, northeastern Russia, and Tibet will experience a relatively cold condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal fall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of Alaska, western/eastern Canada, central/eastern U.S.A., East Africa, West Africa, and northern Europe. In contrast, northwestern/southeastern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, eastern Europe, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may be extremely drier than normal, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state.
In winter, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in northern South American Continent, Australia, Mozambique, South Africa, southern Angola, Zambia, southeastern Europe facing the Mediterranean Sea, northern Europe, southern India, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia. On the other hand, most parts of U.S.A, northeastern/south Brazil, northern South Africa, Botswana, western Europe, southeastern China will be wetter-than-normal.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in fall and winter as a seasonal average.

Jul. 20, 2018
Prediction from 1st Jul., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in summer and reach its peak in winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is clearly predicted by the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system; the ensemble mean prediction suggests its evolution from summer and its peak in fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the latter half of 2018; this is as we observed in 1994 (with El Niño Modoki) or 1997 and 2015 (with El Niño).
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in fall, while some parts of eastern Russia, southern U.S.A., northern Brazil, and East Africa will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In winter, most part of the globe will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while U.S.A., Argentine, western Europe, and Tibet will experience a relatively cold condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal fall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of western/northern Canada, southern U.S.A., northern Brazil, East Africa, southern West Africa, and western/northern Europe. In contrast, northwestern/northeastern U.S.A., southern Brazil, eastern Europe, the Far East, northeastern India, northern Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may be extremely drier than normal, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state.
In winter, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in U.S.A, Mexico, northern South American Continent, northern/western Australia, northern Mozambique, eastern Tanzania, a western part of southern Africa, western Europe, the Philippines, and Indonesia. On the other hand, eastern U.S.A, eastern Brazil, southeastern Australia, eastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and central Africa will be wetter-than-normal.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions in fall as a seasonal average. However, more detailed monthly prediction suggests a rather wet condition in September. In winter, overall Japan will experience warmer-than-normal and drier-than normal conditions.

Jun. 19, 2018
Prediction from 1st Jun., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in summer and reach its peak in winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact which may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is clearly predicted by the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system; the ensemble mean prediction suggests its evolution from summer and its peak in fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the latter half of 2018; this is as we observed in 1994 (with El Niño Modoki) or 1997 and 2015 (with El Niño).
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in summer, while some parts of northern central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, northern Australia, and Mexico will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In fall, most part of the globe will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of U. K., West/East/Southern Africa, central U.S., and northeastern Russia will experience a relatively cold condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal summer, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of northern Europe, southern West Africa, southern China, northeastern U.S., northwestern Brazil, and eastern Colombia. In contrast, India, Indonesia, eastern China, South Korea, southern central Russia, northern West Africa, some parts of U.S., southern Mexico, northern Brazil, Venezuela, and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
In fall, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in southern Europe facing the Meditteranean Sea, northeastern and southeastern Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia, western Canada, and Brazil. On the other hand, West Africa, southeastern Africa, East Africa, and U.S. will be wetter-than-normal. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may be extremely drier than normal, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer and relatively wetter-than-normal conditions in summer as a seasonal average. However, more detailed monthly prediction in July suggests a rather dry condition in central and western Japan. In fall, overall Japan will experience warmer and relatively drier-than-normal conditions.

May 22, 2018
Prediction from 1st May, 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in late summer this year and reach its peak in winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is clearly predicted by the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system; the ensemble mean prediction suggests its evolution from early summer and its peak in fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño-like state in the latter half of 2018; this is just as we observed in 1997 and 2015.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in summer, while some parts of northern central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, northern Australia, Mexico, and South American Continent will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In fall, most part of the globe will be a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Europe, U. K., East Africa, southern India, Indonesia, the Philippines, western US, eastern Canada, and northern Brazil will experience a relatively cold condition
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of India, southern West Africa, western U.S. and northern parts of South American Continent, while Indonesia, eastern China, North/South Korea, some parts of Europe, central U.S., southern Mexico, and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition during boreal summer. In fall, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in Northern Europe, northern India, southern China, Indonesia, and Australia will be drier than normal partly due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer and relatively wetter-than-normal conditions in summer. Monthly prediction (not sown) suggests an active rainy season (Baiu) in June. In fall, most part of Japan will experience warmer and relatively drier-than-normal conditions.

Apr. 24, 2018
Prediction from 1st Apr., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like condition will disappear by late spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by fall and continue to be normal during the whole year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Our ensemble average shows the evolution of a moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole from late summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present because of the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in summer, while some parts of northern Europe, some part of Russia, north of Mongolia, Pakistan and India will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In fall, the cold anomaly spreads over whole Europe and central Russia. Most part of Canada will experience a relatively cold condition As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for India, southern West Africa, the Philippines, Indochina, and western U.S., while Indonesia, central China, North/South Korea, southern Europe, central Africa, and central U.S. will experience a drier-than-normal condition during boreal summer. In fall, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in Western Europe facing the Atlantic. Indonesia, Australia, New England in US will be drier than normal, as well. The drier condition in Indonesia and Australia may be due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer and relatively wetter-than-normal conditions in summer. Monthly prediction (not sown) suggests an active rainy season (Baiu) in June.

Mar. 16, 2018
Prediction from 1st Mar., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like condition will disappear by late spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist in 2018.
Atlantic Ocean forecast:
The Atlantic Niño appears to develop in 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the Eurasian Continent will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in spring and summer. In India, however, we expect colder-than-normal condition in summer. Northwestern U.S., western Canada, northern Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, western, eastern and southern Africa, and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal spring. This colder condition in northern Brazil and southern Africa will stay even in boreal summer.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for the Philippines, Indochina, northern India, eastern Africa, Mexico, eastern U.S. and northern Brazil during boreal spring, whereas western/central U.S., Europe, Iran, Indonesia, southern China, Australia, southern Africa, and southern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition during boreal spring. This drier condition will stay in Europe, central U.S., southeastern Australia, and Indonesia in summer.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal conditions in spring and summer; we expect an active rainy season in 2018.

Feb. 19, 2018
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like condition will disappear by late spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist until summer. Then we expect evolution of a moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole in fall. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present because of the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.
Atlantic Ocean forecast:
The Atlantic Niño and the Benguela Niño appear to develop in 2018.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the Eurasian Continent will experience a warmer-than-normal condition except for western Europe. Northern/eastern U.S., southern Canada, central America, northern Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Indochina, western, central and southern Africa, and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal spring.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for the Philippines, Indochina, central and southern Africa, Mexico, Ecuador, and northeastern Brazil during boreal spring, whereas most parts of Indonesia, southern China, Korea, East Africa, eastern U.S, and northern Brazil will experience a drier condition during boreal spring.
Most part of Japan will experience somewhat warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions in spring.

Jan. 18, 2018
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The weak La Niña-like condition will persist until late spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist until late spring. Then we expect evolution of a moderately positive Indian Ocean Dipole in summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present because of the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern/eastern U.S., northwestern Canada, Europe, India, northern Brazil, central and southern Africa, and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal spring. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the Philippines, East Australia, and northern Brazil during boreal spring, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Indo-China, Southeast Asia, eastern/southern U.S, and southern Brazil will experience a drier condition during boreal spring.
In spring, most parts of Japan will experience somewhat warmer-than-normal conditions. The southern part will experience drier-than-normal conditions.

Dec. 22, 2017
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The La Niña-like condition will persist until late winter of next year. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist until spring of next year.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern/eastern U.S., northern Brazil, central Africa, and India will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal winter. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of Philippine, East Australia, and northern Brazil during boreal winter, whereas most parts of Indonesia, West Australia, southern Europe, western U.S, and eastern China will experience a drier condition during boreal winter. Those are partly due to the La Niña-like condition.
In winter, most parts of Japan might experience somewhat warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions.

Nov. 22, 2017
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The weak La Niña-like condition will persist until boreal spring of next year. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist until spring of next year. Then we expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in summer of 2018. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present because of the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of Africa and Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal winter.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of East Africa, eastern Southern Africa, Philippine, East Australia, and northern Brazil during boreal winter, whereas most parts of Indonesia, West Australia, West Africa, southern Europe, western U.S, eastern China and southern Brazil will experience a drier condition during boreal winter. Those are partly due to the weak La Niña-like condition.
In winter, most parts of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions.

Oct. 20, 2017
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The weak La Niña-like condition will persist until boreal spring of next year. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole will disappear by December. The tropical Indian Ocean is expected to return to a normal state by spring of next year.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of West Africa, India and northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal winter.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of East Africa, Philippine, and northern Brazil during boreal winter, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, West Africa, Europe, western U.S, and southern Brazil will experience a drier condition during boreal winter. Those are partly due to the weak La Niña-like condition and the weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
In late fall and winter, most parts of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions.

Sep. 19, 2017
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2017

ENSO forecast:
A weak La Niña-like pattern will persist until boreal spring of next year. Then, the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole continues to exist as we have predicted but it will disappear by winter. In accord to the positive IOD, sea level anomalies continue to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. The tropical Indian Ocean will return to a normal state by winter.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of western Canada and western U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal fall. In winter, most parts of northern Europe, Russia, northern Canada, southern U.S., Mexico, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, China, and the Far East will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of southern Europe, northern Africa, southern Canada, northern U.S., northern Brazil, and Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of East Africa, India, Philippine, and southern Mexico during boreal fall, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, West Africa, southern Europe, eastern China, western U.S, and western Brazil will experience a drier condition during boreal fall. Those are partly due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. In winter, most parts of eastern U.S., Brazil, East Africa, and Australia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition, while some parts of western U.S., Peru, Indonesia, and the northeastern part of South Africa (around Limpopo Province) will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
Most parts of Japan will experience warmer- and wetter-than-normal conditions in fall. However, in late fall and winter, most parts of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions.

Aug. 25, 2017
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2017

ENSO forecast:
A neutral state in the tropical Pacific will persist until boreal winter. Then, a weak La Niña-like pattern will appear in the spring of 2018.
Indian Ocean forecast:
All ensemble members of SINTEX-F now predict a positive Indian Ocean Dipole; the ensemble mean prediction suggests that it peaks in boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of central Russia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal fall.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of East Africa and West Africa during the boreal fall, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, eastern China, U.S, and Brazil will experience a drier condition during the boreal fall. Those are partly due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most parts of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal conditions in the boreal fall. The wind and pressure anomalies averaged in September-November suggest that Japan might be covered by an equivalent barotropic high. Those may be due to the combined effect of the “monsoon-desert mechanism” of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the “Silk Road pattern” along the Asian jet.

Jul. 13, 2017
Prediction from 1st Jul., 2017

ENSO forecast:
A slightly warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is predicted for the whole tropical Pacific. This condition will persist until boreal winter. Then, it will return into a neutral state by next spring.
Indian Ocean forecast:
All ensemble members of SINTEX-F continue to predict a positive Indian Ocean Dipole; the ensemble mean prediction suggests that it peaks in boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of central Russia and central U. S. will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal fall.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of East Africa and West Africa during the boreal fall, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, eastern China, and Brazil will experience a drier condition during the boreal fall. Those are partly due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most parts of Japan will experience moderately warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions in the boreal fall. The wind and pressure anomalies averaged in September-November suggest that Japan might be covered by an equivalent barotropic high. Those may be due to the combined effect of "the monsoon-desert mechanism" of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and "the Silk Road pattern" along the Asian jet.

Jun 19, 2017
Prediction from 1st June, 2017

ENSO forecast:
A chance of El Niño occurrence is much reduced. Instead, warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature is predicted for the whole tropical Pacific. This condition will persist until boreal fall. Then, it will evolve into a weak El Niño/El Niño Modoki by early winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
All ensemble members of SINTEX-F now predict a rather strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole; the ensemble mean prediction suggests that it peaks in boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Russia and West Africa will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal summer. In the boreal fall, most part of the globe also will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Europe, central China, and Indonesia will be in a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal fall.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of West Africa, Mexico, and Southeast Asia during the boreal summer, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, India, eastern China, northern Brazil, and Peru will experience a drier condition during the boreal summer. In the boreal fall, most parts of Indonesia, Australia, eastern China, the Far East, and southern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while most parts of West Africa, East Africa, and southern Africa will be wetter-than-normal. Those are partly due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most parts of Japan will experience moderately warmer-than-normal and drier-than normal summer. The wind and pressure anomalies averaged in September-November suggests that Japan might be covered by an equivalent barotropic high. The hotter and drier condition may persist even in fall. Those may be due to the combined effect of the "monsoon-desert mechanism" of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the "Silk Road pattern" along the Asian jet.

May 12, 2017
Prediction from 1st May, 2017

ENSO forecast:
A moderate-to-strong El Niño event is developing now in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The SINTEX-F model has consistently predicted the El Niño since December last year. The event is expected to reach its peak in boreal winter, and we expect negative sea level anomalies in Micronesia and Melanesia. The frequent occurrences of El Niños in recent years suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. Such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998. We need to be prepared well to this possible decadal climate regime shift.
Indian Ocean forecast:
All ensemble members of SINTEX-F now predict a rather strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole; the ensemble mean prediction suggests it to peak in boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We will observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño in the latter half of 2017; this is just as we observed in 1997 and 2015.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of eastern Russia and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal summer. In the boreal fall, most part of the globe also will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Europe, northern U.S. and southern Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal fall.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of Philippines, West Africa, and Mexico during the boreal summer, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, India, eastern China, Korea, northern Brazil, and Peru will experience a drier condition during the boreal summer. In the boreal fall, most parts of Indonesia, Philippines, northern India, Australia, eastern China, the Far East, and southern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while most parts of West Arica, southern Africa, East Africa, central India, and U.S. will be wetter-than-normal. Those are partly due to co-occurrence of the El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. In particular, the drier condition in Indonesia and Australia will be augmented by the co-occurrence.
Most parts of Japan will be moderately warmer-than-normal and wetter (drier)-than normal over the western (northern) part in summer. In particular, we expect more (less) rain in the western (northern) Japan in the Baiu season. Our monthly picture (not shown) suggests that Japan might be covered by an equivalent barotropic high in summer, suggesting a hotter and drier condition. The drier condition may persist even in fall. El Niño influences may be cancelled regionally owing to development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and vice versa.

Apr. 18, 2017
Prediction from 1st Apr., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in late spring this year and reach its peak in winter. This probability is enhanced and we expect negative sea level anomalies in Micronesia and Melanesia. The frequent occurrences of El Niños in recent years suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. Such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998. We need to be prepared well to this possible decadal climate regime shift.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also clearly predicted by the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system; the ensemble mean prediction suggests its evolution from late spring and its peak in fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño in the latter half of 2017; this is just as we observed in 1997 and 2015.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of southeastern Russia and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal summer. In the boreal fall, most part of the globe also will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of southern and eastern Russia and Somalia will be in a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal fall.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of Southeast Asia, Philippines, the Far East, and West Africa during the boreal summer, whereas most parts of Indonesia, Australia, India, eastern China, and northern Brazil will experience a drier condition during the boreal summer. In the boreal fall, most parts of Indonesia, Philippines, northern India, Australia, Mexico, southern Brazil and Europe will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Those are partly due to co-occurrence of the El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. In particular, the drier condition in Indonesia and Australia will be augmented by the co-occurrence.
Most parts of Japan will be moderately warmer-than-normal and wetter-than normal in summer. In particular, we expect more rain in the western Japan in the Baiu season. In contrast, we expect a drier condition in fall. El Niño influences may be cancelled regionally owing to development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and vice versa.

Mar. 21, 2017
Prediction from 1st Mar., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in early summer this year and reach its peak in winter. If this happens, it may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. Such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998. We need to be prepared well to this possible decadal climate regime shift.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also clearly predicted by the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system; the ensemble mean prediction suggests its evolution in summer and its height in fall. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño in the latter half of 2017; this is just as we observed in 1997 and 2015.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of southern Canada and northern U. S., and northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In the boreal summer, most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition. On the other hand, some parts of Europe, central Russia, and northern Australia will experience a cooler-than-normal condition.
As regards the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for western part of Brazil during the boreal spring, whereas most parts of southeastern China, Indonesia, eastern Brazil, southern Australia and Europe will experience a drier condition during the boreal spring. In the boreal summer, most parts of Indonesia, India, Australia, southeastern China, Mexico, and northern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, due to co-occurrence of the El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most parts of Japan will be in a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In boreal summer, we expect a wetter-than-normal and slightly hotter-than-normal condition due to development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño; El Niño influences may be cancelled due to development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipoleand vice versa.

Feb. 18, 2017
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F now clearly predicts an El Niño event from this coming summer. This may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. If this happens, such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also clearly predicted; almost all ensemble members are suggesting the evolution in summer and the height in fall. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño in the latter half of 2017; this is just as in 1997 and 2015.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of western Canada and northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In the boreal summer, most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition. On the other hand, some parts of central Russia, northern China, and northern Australia will experience a cooler-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern part of Brazil, northeastern part of China, and eastern part of southern Africa during the boreal spring, whereas most parts of southeastern China, Indonesia, and Europe will experience a drier condition during the boreal spring. In the boreal summer, most parts of Indonesia, western India, and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition, due to the El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Most parts of Japan will be in a warmer and wetter-than-normal condition in the boreal spring (except for less rain expected in March). In boreal summer, we expect a cooler (hotter)-than-normal condition in the northern (western) part. Since the Bonin high may not be matured in summer due to expected El Niño, we expect rather abnormal summer conditions particularly in the northern part. However, we also expect that the El Niño influences may be partly cancelled mostly in the western part due to development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

Jan. 16, 2017
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The latest SINTEX-F prediction suggests the termination of the current weak La Niña Modoki/La Niña state in coming months. Majority of the ensemble members continue to indicate recurrence of a weak El Niño event in the latter half of 2017. It will be interesting if an El Niño event really evolves in 2017, which may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state, which led to the global warming hiatus.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The predictions continue to suggest development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in coming boreal fall. We also expect the Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia in austral fall.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of eastern Canada, northern Brazil, and western Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal spring.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern part of Brazil, western Australia and South Africa during the austral fall. Most parts of southeastern China, Indonesia, eastern Africa, western half of Europe, northern part of South America (including Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana) will experience a drier condition during the austral fall, whereas the Philippines, Indochina, southern Mexico, and the eastern half of Europe will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Most parts of Japan will be warmer and drier than normal in boreal spring. However, we note that highly fluctuating mid- and -high latitude climate may not be captured well by the current model.

Dec. 19, 2016
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2016

ENSO forecast:
According to the SINTEX-F prediction, the current La Niña Modoki/La Niña state will continue until late winter. Interestingly, majority of the ensemble members indicate recurrence of a moderate El Niño event in the latter half of 2017. It will be interesting if an El Niño event really evolves in 2017, which may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state, which led to the global warming hiatus.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole has started decaying and will be terminated by the end of 2016. Then we expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in summer of 2017. We also expect the Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia in late austral summer, which may persist until late austral fall. However, the prediction plumes are spreading and those expectations are still uncertain at the present stage.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern U.S., southern Canada, northern Brazil, and Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal winter.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, most parts of southeastern China, Indonesia, eastern Africa, eastern half of Europe including Italy, and Caribbean countries including Florida will experience a drier condition during winter, whereas the Philippines, the eastern U.S., and the western part of Europe will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Most parts of Brazil, Australia and South Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition during austral summer. Most parts of Japan will be warmer and quite drier than normal in winter. However, we note that highly fluctuating mid- and -high latitude climate in winter may not be captured well by the current model.

Nov. 23, 2016
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2016

ENSO forecast:
According to the SINTEX-F prediction, the current La Niña Modoki/La Niña state will continue until spring. That state will then start decaying and the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer. The model prediction appears to be consistent so far with the observed evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (see here).
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole will keep decaying and disappear in winter. The Ningaloo Nino will appear off the west coast of Australia in late austral summer and persist until late austral fall.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Brazil, Australia, and Mongolia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal winter.

According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, most parts of southern China, southeastern Africa, southern Europe, and eastern/western U.S. will experience a drier condition during boreal winter, while most parts of Brazil, western Central Africa, and South Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Australia will receive above normal rainfall during austral summer. Northern parts of Japan (including Hokkaido) will be cooler and drier than normal while southern parts of Japan will generally be warmer than normal in winter. However, we note that fluctuating mid- and -high latitude climate in winter may not be captured well by the current model.

Oct. 17, 2016
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2016

ENSO forecast:
According to the SINTEX-F prediction, the current weak La Niña Modoki will start decaying and the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by boreal spring. The model prediction appears to be consistent so far with the observed evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole will start decaying and disappear in boreal winter. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole may evolve in early summer of 2017. However, it is still uncertain at the present stage.
Regional forecast:
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of Brazil, northern Europe, and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, eastern China, Indo-China, East Africa, most parts of Europe, U.S. and the Far East (including Japan) might experience a drier condition during boreal fall, while most parts of Brazil, southern West Africa, western Central Africa, and South Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Australia will receive above normal rainfall during austral summer. Most parts of Japan will experience above normal temperature and below normal precipitation (less snowfall) in winter. Those may be associated with a warm Indian Ocean and a weak La Niña Modoki in the Pacific.

Sep. 21, 2016
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts a La Niña Modoki/weak La Niña state will reach the peak in the boreal fall. Then, the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by boreal spring. The model prediction is so far consistent with the observed evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The model has successfully predicted the negative IOD as observed in recent SST anomalies. The 2016 negative IOD will reach the peak in the boreal fall. It will bring a wetter-than-normal (drier-than-normal) condition over the eastern (western) side of the Indian Ocean; there is high possibility of floods in the region near Sumatra and Java. On the other hand, we warn dry conditions in East African countries.
Regional forecast:
In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, eastern China, Indo-China, East Africa, and parts of southern Africa might experience a drier condition during boreal fall, while most parts of Indonesia, northern South America (including Colombia, Ecuador, and northwestern Brazil), southern West Africa, and western Central Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the negative IOD and the weak La Niña. Because of those climate conditions, Australia will receive above normal rainfall during austral summer. Most part of Japan will experience above normal temperature and above normal precipitation in fall, particularly in the western part of Japan.
Our monthly predictions fluctuate much in mid- and high- latitudes. The forecast skills in those latitudes on regional scales are still limited; predictions in those regions should be used carefully.

Aug. 17, 2016
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model initialized with the SST condition observed on July 31st predicts a weak La Niña/La Niña Modoki state in coming months. Although the NCEP GODAS shows an anomalously cold subsurface condition almost all the way from central Pacific to eastern Pacific along the equator in July, the prediction has not picked the strong La Niña/La Niña Modoki signal yet. This might be a model bias due to the simple SST data assimilation scheme used in the initialization. However, we have noted similar prediction results in several other climate models.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged in the June-July SST anomalies of the NCEP GODAS data. The model continues predicting the negative IOD for the boreal fall; this will bring a wetter-than-normal (drier-than-normal) condition over the eastern (western) side of the Indian Ocean. There is high possibility of floods in the region near Sumatra and Java, and drought in East Africa. The negative IOD seems to have brought temporary relief to a hot summer over East Japan normally expected in an evolving La Niña year.
Regional forecast:
In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, U.S., Korea, eastern China, Indo-China and East Africa will experience a drier condition during boreal fall, while most parts of Indonesia and northwestern South America (including Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the negative IOD and the evolving weak La Niña. Also, because of those climate conditions in Indian and Pacific Oceans, Australia is expected to receive above normal rainfall during austral spring and summer. The active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) may play a role in this, too However, we expect a weak dry condition in the southwestern coastal region of Western Australia because of the evolution of weak Ningaloo Niña.
Most part of Japan will experience above normal temperature from summer through winter. We expect above normal precipitation in most part of Japan in September-October. However, it may be noted that the forecast skills in those mid- and high-latitudes on regional scales are still limited.

June 17, 2016
Prediction from 1st June, 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that La Niña-like conditions continue evolving in the tropical Pacific. This La Niña is more or less of Modoki-type. According to the prediction plumes of Nino3.4 and Modoki indices, La Nina (Modoki) will peak around the end of 2016 and will continue through the spring of 2017.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has clearly emerged in the observed anomalies of June sea surface temperature. The model predicts that the negative IOD continues evolving and reaches its peak in boreal fall, which may bring a more than normal wet (dry) condition over the eastern (western) side of the Indian Ocean.
The model suggests a weak Ningaloo Niño event off the west coast of Australia by the end of 2016; this may be partly associated with the development of the La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Regional forecast:
In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while central U.S., central Australia, and southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, some parts of western India, East Africa, and California in U.S. will experience drier conditions during boreal summer and fall, while most parts of Indonesia and northwestern South America (including Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the evolving La Nina and the negative IOD. Also, because of those climate conditions in Indian and Pacific Oceans, Australia is expected to receive above normal rainfall during austral spring and summer. The active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) may play a role in this, too.
Most part of Japan will experience the warmer- and wetter-than-normal condition during boreal summer.This is because, as convective activities over the Philippines seas come back, the anomalous Bonin High will cover most part of Japan and bring warm moist air along its western edge.An anomalous equivalent barotropic high linked to the Tibetan High is expected to evolve and cover western Japan, as well; this condition is known well as one of those which bring severe heat waves.

May 17, 2016
Prediction from 1st May,2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current El Niño will decay rapidly by early boreal summer, and that the central and eastern Pacific SST will be lower than normal during boreal summer and fall. Most of the ensemble members for Nino3.4 index indicate a transition to a La Niña state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A basin-wide warming will persist at least up to the end of this year as a legacy of the capacitor effect of El Niño through the atmospheric bridge. However, the eastern side of the basin will be warmer than the western side during boreal fall. This suggests a negative IOD-like condition and our coupled model predicts more than normal precipitation over the eastern Indian Ocean.
The model suggests a weak Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia by the end of the year; this may be partly due to the development of a La Niña state in the tropical Pacific.
Regional forecast:
In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northeastern China, southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, some parts of India and East Africa will experience drier conditions during boreal summer and fall, while Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the fading El Niño and the development of a negative IOD-like condition in the Indian Ocean. Australia is expected to receive above normal rainfall owing to the negative IOD-like condition and expected evolution of La Niña during austral spring and summer. The active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) may play a role in this, too.　Most part of Japan will experience slightly warmer and drier-than-normal conditions during boreal summer. The Baiu front seems to be active in June but the main activity is located south of Honshu in the simulation.

Apr. 18, 2016
Prediction from 1st Apr.,2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current El Niño will decay rapidly by early boreal summer, and that the central and eastern Pacific SST will be lower than normal during boreal summer and fall. Most of the ensemble members for Nino3.4 index indicate a transition to a La Niña state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A basin-wide warming will persist at least up to the end of this year as a legacy of the capacitor effect of El Niño through the atmospheric bridge. However, the eastern side of the basin will be warmer than the western side during boreal fall, which may generate a positive zonal SST gradient. This suggests a weak negative IOD-like condition and our coupled model predicts more precipitation over the eastern Indian Ocean.
The model also predicts Ningaloo Nina off the west coast of Australia will disappear by the end of austral fall and a Ningaloo Niño will evolve by the end of the year. This turnabout may be partly due to the development of a La Niña state in the tropical Pacific.
Regional forecast:
In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northeastern China, southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal summer, parts of India and East Africa will experience somewhat drier condition while Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition owing to fading El Niño and the development a negative IOD-like condition in the Indian Ocean. Australia is expected to receive above normal rainfall owing to the negative IOD-like condition and expected evolution of La Niña and Ningaloo Niño during austral spring and summer. Most parts of Japan will experience slightly cooler and wetter-than-normal conditions during boreal summer.

Mar. 28, 2016
Prediction from 1st Mar.,2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current El Niño will decay rapidly and that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer. Most of the ensemble members indicate a transition to a La Niña (Modoki) state toward the end of the year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A basin-wide warming will persist at least until boreal fall as a legacy of the capacitor effect of El Niño through the atmospheric bridge. The weak Ningaloo Niña off the west coast of Australia will disappear by the end of austral fall.
Regional forecast:
In boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northeastern China, southeastern Russia, southeastern U.S., and southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to atmospheric teleconnection due to the current El Niño.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal spring, northern Australia, southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The model predicts that Japan will experience slightly warmer and wetter-than-normal conditions during boreal spring.

Feb. 17, 2016
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current El Niño will continue to decay and it is expected that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer. Most of the ensemble members also indicate a transition to a La Niña state toward the end of the year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A basin-wide warming will persist until boreal spring as a capacitor effect of the tropical Pacific El Niño through the atmospheric bridge.
Regional forecast:
In boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northern Europe, northeastern China, southeastern U.S., and southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to atmospheric teleconnection due to the current El Niño.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal spring, northern Australia, southern Africa, India, Mexico, and eastern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The model predicts that Japan will experience warmer and drier-than-normal conditions during boreal spring.

Jan. 21, 2016
Prediction from 1st Jan., 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current strong El Niño will continue decaying; we expect that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer. La Niña will evolve in the following boreal winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A basin-wide warming will persist until boreal spring as a capacitor effect of the tropical Pacific El Niño through the atmospheric bridge.
Regional forecast:
In boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe (including Japan) will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northeastern Russia, southern China, and southeastern U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the teleconnection effect due to on-going strong El Niño.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal spring, northern Australia, southern/eastern Africa, India, Mexico, and eastern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while Southeast Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The SINTEX-F model predicts that Japan will experience a warmer and drier-than-normal condition in boreal spring.

Dec. 21, 2015
Prediction from 1st Dec., 2015

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current strong El Niño will start to decay in boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer in 2016. La Niña may evolve in the following boreal winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will disappear in December. Subsequently, a basin-wide warming will persist as a capacitor effect of the tropical Pacific El Niño through the atmospheric bridge.
Regional forecast:
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe (including Japan) will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northeastern Russia, southern China, central/eastern U.S. and the Pampas will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the teleconnection effect due to on-going strong El Niño.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal winter, eastern Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and Southeast Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while U.S (particularly the western and southeastern parts) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The strong El Niño and the California Niño could be partly responsible for that. The SINTEX-F model predicts that Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter and spring.

Nov. 20, 2015
Prediction from 1st Nov., 2015

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current strong El Niño will reach its peak in late boreal fall and start to decay after boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by 2016 boreal summer and then will turn to a La Niña in following boreal winter.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The model predictions suggest that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will decay in late boreal fall. Subsequently, a basin-wide warming will be seen in boreal winter and spring in response to the tropical Pacific El Niño.
Regional forecast:
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe (including Japan) will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northern Europe, northeastern Russia, southeastern China, and central/eastern U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the on-going strong El Niño.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal winter, eastern Australia, southern Africa, Brazil, and Southeast Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while Europe and U.S (particularly the western and southeastern parts) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The strong El Niño and the California Nino could be partly responsible for those.The SINTEX-F model predicts that Japan will experience a wetter and warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter.

Nov. 4, 2015
JAMSTEC News
Future outlook for Super El Niño - Signs of La Niña in late 2016

Oct. 23, 2015
Prediction from 1st Oct., 2015

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current El Niño reaches its peak in boreal fall and will keep its amplitude until boreal winter. The strengthening of the amplitude of El Niño Modoki index suggests that the present El Niño may turn to an El Niño Modoki in boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The model predictions suggest that the weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will persist through the boreal fall. Subsequently, basin-wide warming will take over in boreal winter and spring in response to Pacific El Niño.
Regional forecast:
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe (including Japan) will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northern Europe, northeastern Russia, southern China, and U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the on-going strong El Niño event.
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, Australia, southern Africa, Brazil, and Southeast Asia will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while northern Europe and U.S (particularly the eastern part) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The strong El Niño event and the California Nino could be partly responsible for those.

Sep. 24, 2015
Prediction from 1st September, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts that the current El Niño reaches its peak in boreal fall with keeping its amplitude until boreal winter. The increasing amplitude of El Niño Modoki index suggests that the present El Niño may turn to an El Niño Modoki in boreal sprin
Indian Ocean forecast: The model predictions suggest that the weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will reach its peak in boreal fall. Subsequently, basin-wide warming will take over in boreal winter and spring; this may be the Indian Ocean capacitor effect in response to Pacific El Niño.
Regional forecast: In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Russia, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Northern South America, Mexico, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, central/eastern U.S., northeastern China and U. K. will experience a colder-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), it is expected that southern Japan will experience a slightly cooler-than-normal condition in October, whereas, in November it will experience a slightly warmer-than-normal condition, partly because of the El Niño. The strong El Niño may weaken the impact of a weak positive IOD event.
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of the globe (including Japan) will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while northern Europe and U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the on-going strong El Niño event and the development of an El Niño Modoki.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal fall, Indonesia, India, Australia (particularly eastern part), northern Brazil, Panama, southern Europe, and southern Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. On the other hand, the Bay of Bengal, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Baja California, and U.S. will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the El Niño and the positive IOD, together with their remote influences.
In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition, while Europe and U.S. will experience a wetter-than-normal. Those also may be partly related to the strong El Niño event.

Aug 12, 2015
Prediction from 1st August, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts that the currently evolving El Niño reaches its peak in early boreal fall and maintains its amplitude until boreal winter. It is expected to be one of the strongest El Niño events in recent decades.
Indian Ocean forecast: The model predictions suggest a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will persist until boreal fall. Subsequently, a basin-wide warm mode will appear in boreal winter and spring as the Indian Ocean capacitor effect in response to Pacific El Niño.
Regional forecast: In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Western Russia, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Northern South America, Mexico, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, central/eastern U.S., southeastern Russia, northeastern China and Southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), it is expected that most parts of Japan will experience a slightly cooler-than-normal condition in September and October, whereas, in November it will experience a slightly warmer-than-normal condition, partly because of the El Niño. The strong El Niño may weaken the impact of a weak positive IOD event.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal fall, Indonesia, India, Australia (particularly eastern part), northern Brazil, Panama, southern Europe, and southern Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. On the other hand, most parts of Japan, the Bay of Bengal, Southeast Asia, Baja California, and U.S. will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the El Niño and the positive IOD, together with their remote influences.

July 21, 2015
Prediction from 1st July, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts that the currently evolving El Niño reaches its peak in late boreal summer and maintains its amplitude until boreal winter. Based on the model predictions and the present observations of the tropical Pacific condition, it appears that this could be one of the strongest El Niño in recent decades.
Indian Ocean forecast: As predicted, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has come on the scene in this month. The positive IOD will continue evolving and reach its peak in boreal fall.
Regional forecast: In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Western Russia, India, Southeast Asia, Northern South America, Mexico, Canada, and East Asia will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, central/eastern U.S., southeastern Russia, and Southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), Japan will be in a cooler-than-normal condition in August, whereas in September and October, it will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The former may be related to immature Bonin high due to El Niño, whereas the latter may be related to the development of the positive IOD.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal fall, Japan, Indonesia, northern India, Australia (particularly northern Australia), and northern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. On the other hand, most parts of the Bay of Bengal, Baja California, and southern Brazil will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to El Niño and the positive IOD, together with their remote influences.

June 16, 2015
Prediction from 1st June, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts a strong El Niño to develop in the tropical Pacific in a couple of months; it may reach its maximum in late boreal summer and sustain the strength until boreal winter. The present satellite SST shows rapid development of warm anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific extending to the South American coast, suggesting development of such a strong El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast: The basin-wide warming pattern of SST observed in the Indian Ocean will be replaced by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern in late boreal summer and fall. The timing of the evolution is similar to that of the canonical IOD in the prediction of this month and we expect IOD influences will become clear by August.
Regional forecast: In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Western Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South America, Mexico, Canada, and Far East will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, Northern Australia, central/eastern U.S., northern Russia will experience a colder-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), Japan will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in July. However, we expect a cooler-than-normal condition in August. It may be related to immature Bonin high due to El Niño evolving in the tropical Pacific. However, this El Niño influences on Japan may be suppressed to some extent owing to the development of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction in boreal summer, Indonesia, India except for the region near the Bay of Bengal and Western Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Australia will suffer from a drier-than-normal condition, too. On the other hand, most parts of the Indochina Peninsula, South Korea and Japan will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. All those may be partly related to the El Niño and positive IOD development.

May 21, 2015
Prediction from 1st May, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts a strong El Niño to develop in the tropical Pacific in a couple of months; it may reach a maximum in boreal fall and winter. The SST observation shows a signature of rapid developing warm SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific extending to the South American coast, which may lead to a coupled mode evolution.
Indian Ocean forecast: The basin-wide warming SST pattern presently observed in the Indian Ocean is expected to change into a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in late boreal summer and fall. This evolution is rather late compared to the canonical IOD and we expect El Niño influences may be more prominent in coming boreal summer.
Regional forecast: In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Western Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South America, Canada, and Far East will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, Southern Australia, central U.S., eastern Russia will experience a colder-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), Japan will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in June, but after that we expect a cooler-than-normal condition in July-August. It may be related to expected immature Bonin high due to El Niño development in the tropical Pacific.
The seasonally averaged rainfall forecast for boreal summer shows that most parts of Western Africa and India would experience a drier-than-normal condition. On the other hand, most parts of Southeast Asia and Japan (except for northern Japan) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. The monthly forecast outputs suggest more rain in southern Japan particularly in June-July. All those may be partly related to the El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, too.

Apr 24, 2015
Prediction from 1st Apr, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts that an El Niño may develop in the tropical Pacific during next couple of seasons. The present SST shows development of weak warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific extending to the South American coasts.
Indian Ocean forecast: A basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the tropical Pacific warm condition at least until the boreal spring. The ensemble mean predicts the development of a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in boreal summer and fall. However, uncertainty of its evolution remains high because of the large spread in the prediction plumes.
Regional forecast: In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Eastern Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South America, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, most parts of Australia, central U.S., central Russia, and Japan will experience a colder-than-normal condition; this may be associated with the El Nino development in the tropical Pacific.
The seasonally averaged rainfall forecast for boreal summer shows that most parts of Western Africa and India will experience a drier-than-normal condition. On the other hand, most parts of Southeast Asia and Japan (except for northern Japan) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), we predict more rain in southern Japan particularly in May and June. All those may be partly related to a persistence of the tropical Pacific warm condition.
A warmer-than-normal SST associated with the ?~@~\California Niño?~@~]will start to decay and return to a neutral state by boreal winter.

Apr 17, 2015
Prediction from 1st March, 2015

ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction and present observations show that a weak El Niño condition is developing in the eastern Pacific from the prevailing El Niño Modoki condition.
Indian Ocean forecast: A basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the tropical Pacific warm condition at least until the boreal spring. The model predicts the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in boreal summer and fall. However, uncertainty of its evolution remains high because of the large spread seen in the prediction plumes.
Regional forecast: In this boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Africa, Northern Russia, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition.
On the other hand, Europe, central/eastern U.S., and the Far East (including Japan) will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonally averaged rainfall forecast in this boreal spring shows that most parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and Northern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. Based on monthly pictures (not shown), we predict less rain in Korea and Japan particularly in May and June. All those may be partly related to a persistence of the tropical Pacific warm condition.
A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for the western U.S., through the boreal spring, perhaps partly due to a warmer-than-normal SST associated with the California Niñand associated ocean-atmosphere interactions and dynamics along the western coasts of North America.

April 6, 2015
Announcement: This month's forecast will be delayed due to the JAMSTEC computing system update. We apologize for inconvenience. We will update this month's foreacst around the second week of April.

February 19, 2015
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction and present observations show that an “El Niño Modoki”condition prevails in the tropical Pacific. As per the model predictions the warmer than normal SST anomalies are expected to continue in the central Pacific through the boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: A basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the tropical Pacific warm condition at least until the boreal spring. The model predictions suggest the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in boreal summer and fall. However, its uncertainty remains high as a large spread is seen in the prediction plumes.
Regional forecast: In this boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Africa, Northern Russia, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition.
On the other hand, Europe, Southern Russia, U.S., and the Far East (including Japan) will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonally averaged rainfall forecast in this boreal spring shows that most parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and Northern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to a persistence of the tropical Pacific warm condition like El Niño Modoki.
A wetter-than-normal condition is expected to continue in U.S., particularly the western U.S., through the boreal spring partly due to a warmer-than-normal SST associated with a persistence of the “California Niño” and associated ocean-atmosphere interactions and dynamics along the western coasts of North America.

January 20, 2015
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction shows that a warmer-than-normal condition in the tropical Pacific like El Niño Modoki will continue, but decay in the boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: A basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the tropical Pacific warm condition at least until the boreal fall.
Regional forecast: In this boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Africa, Southern Russia, Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition.
On the other hand, Europe, Northern Russia, and U.S. will continue to experience a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonally averaged rainfall forecast in this boreal spring shows that most parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to a persistence of the tropical Pacific warm condition like El Niño Modoki.
A wetter-than-normal condition is expected to continue in U.S., particularly the western U.S., through the boreal spring partly due to a warmer-than-normal SST associated with a persistence of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

December 19, 2014
NB: This month's forecast is based on 9 ensemble members, because TMI and TMI-AMSRE SST datasets used to initialize other ensemble members are unavailable since November 2014.
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction shows that a warmer-than-normal condition over the tropical Pacific will continue until the early next year and then turn into El Niño Modoki with the SST anomalies peaking in the central tropical Pacific.
In consideration of the actual societal impacts, our tentative definition of ENSO (or Modoki) is based on the overall tropical structure and its influences, and is not based only on the single criterion of the Niño 3.4 index scalar variable.
We believe that this new approach must be elaborated more in a quantitative way.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki until the next boreal summer.
Regional forecast: In this boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of western Europe, Africa, Middle East, eastern/western Russia, India, China, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, western U.S. and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., southern Russia, and eastern U.S. in particular will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The forecasts of seasonally averaged rainfall in this boreal winter show that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Africa, and Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to the present weak El Niño and subsequent development of an El Niño Modoki. A wetter-than-normal condition will be expected in U.S., in particular the western U.S., partly due to the warmer-than-normal SST associated with persistence of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

November 24, 2014
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction shows that the present weak El Niño will continue until the early next year and then turn into El Niño Modoki with the SST anomalies peaking in the central tropical Pacific. In consideration of the actual societal impacts, our tentative definition of ENSO (Modoki) is based on the overall tropical structure and its influences, and is not based only on the single criterion of the Niño 3.4 index scalar variable. We believe that this new approach must be elaborated more in a quantitative way.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming will develop in the Indian Ocean, in response to the Pacific El Niño (Modoki). This is expected to continue until the next boreal summer.
Regional forecast: In this boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., southern and northeastern Russia, and central-eastern U.S. in particular will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonally averaged rainfall in this boreal winter shows that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Africa, and eastern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to the present weak El Niño. A wetter-than-normal condition will be expected in U.S., in particular the western U.S., partly due to the warmer-than-normal SST associated with persistence of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

October 22, 2014
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predictions indicate that the present weak El Niño will continue until early next year. The SST anomalies extended all the way along the equator will then gradually turn to an El Niño Modoki.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD in the Indian Ocean is now changing to a basin-wide warm mode and that condition is expected to continue in boreal winter as the Indian Ocean capacitor effect in response to Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki.
Regional forecast: In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., western/eastern Russia, southern parts of Australia, and central-eastern U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonal averaged rainfall in Dec.2014-Feb. 2015 suggests that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, and East Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. All those may be somehow related to the course of El Niño. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S, in particular, western U.S., partly because of the warmer-than-normal SST associated with the continuation of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

September 24, 2014
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts that the present weak phase of El Niño will continue until boreal winter. That condition will gradually shift to an El Niño Modoki in early next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD in the Indian Ocean will change to a basin-wide warm mode in boreal winter in response to the capacitor effect of Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki.
Regional forecast: In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia, South American Continent, northern U.S., and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, southern parts of South Africa, Australia, and U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
For the rainfall, again as a seasonally averaged view, the Maritime Continent (except for Sumatra), northern Australia, Caribbean countries, and East Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. All those may be somehow related to the development of weak El Niño and negative IOD. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S, in particular, California, because of the warmer-than-normal SST; this may be related to the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”, too.

August 20, 2014
ENSO forecast: Our SINTEX-F model still shows that the weak El Niño condition will continue and mature in late boreal fall and early winter. However, the simultaneous El Niño Modoki signature will become relatively prominent in early next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD will mature in fall and change into a basin-wide mode in late boreal fall/winter, possibly due to the capacitor effect of either the Pacific El Nino or the El Nino Modoki
Regional forecast: Most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia, South American Continent, western U.S., Mexico, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in September. On the other hand, South Africa, central China, southern Australia, central-eastern U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition in September.
In boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, eastern/western Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, western/eastern U.S., Mexico, Australia and the Far East including Japan will be in a warmer-than-normal condition owing to the development of El Nino, whereas central Russia, South Africa and central U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent (except for Sumatra), India, northeastern Australia, Caribbean countries, and East Africa will be in a drier-than-normal condition in boreal fall owing to the development of El Nino and negative IOD. On the other hand, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern China and U.S. In particular, the wetter-than-normal condition in California will be associated with the warmer-than-normal SST of the newly identified phenomenon “California Nino”.

July 23, 2014
ENSO forecast: The evolving El Niño is expected to remain weak and mature in the late boreal summer and most probably will continue through the winter. It will evolve into a weak El Niño Modoki in the early next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, its uncertainty remains high because of the large spreads in the prediction plumes.
Regional forecast: Most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia, and South American Continent will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in August and September owing to the development of El Niño. On the other hand, the Far East including Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition in September.
In the boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeast Asia, and South American Continent will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas western China, central-eastern U.S., and southeastern Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent (except for Sumatra) in Asia, India, Northeastern Australia, Caribbean countries, and East Africa will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal fall. On the other hand, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. In particular, the wetter-than-normal condition in California will be associated with the warmer-than-normal SST of the newly identified phenomenon “California Niño”. In the austral spring, the southern African region will be in a drier-than-normal condition.

June 18, 2014
ENSO forecast: The developing El Niño is expected to reach its height in late boreal summer and then continue at least through the winter. After the late winter, it will evolve into an El Niño Modoki.
Indian Ocean forecast: The probability of a negative IOD is very high in the tropical Indian Ocean during summer and fall.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, and Southeastern Asia will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, the Far East including Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most parts of Australia and South Africa will be colder-than-normal in austral winter while most parts of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.
In the boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeast Asia, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas most parts of China, eastern-central part of U.S., southeastern Canada, Korea and Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. The unique combination of a negative IOD in the Indian Ocean and an El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan. Indian sub-continent will experience a drier than normal summer monsoon season.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, Caribbean countries, and West Africa will also be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, the southern African region will be in a drier-than-normal condition.

May 19, 2014 (notes updated May 26, 2014)
ENSO forecast: El Niño will develop and reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, eastern China, central-eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most part of Australia will be colder-than-normal in austral winter, while most part of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.
In the boreal fall, most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, northern Japan, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas eastern Russia, most part of U.S., southern Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. In case of the negative IOD in the Indian Ocean, the unique combination with El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, Angola, Namibia, and central Australia will be in a drier-than-normal condition.

April 21, 2014 (notes updated April 30, 2014)
ENSO forecast: Present condition similar to El Nino Modoki will evolve into El Nino, which will reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, North Africa, Middle East, western-central Russia, India, northern China, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, southern China, most parts of Canada, eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. This, however, may depend on the zonal location of the peak SST anomaly. In the boreal fall, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, Mexico, and western U.S. will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas most parts of Europe, northern Russia, central-eastern U.S., Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. Above normal precipitation is expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu season. Drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the eastern part of Australia in the austral fall and winter.
In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, southern region of South Africa and West Australia will experience cooler-than-normal condition in the austral winter, while southern African region and most parts of Brazil will be in a warmer-than-normal condition. In the austral spring, most parts of the Southern Hemisphere will be in a warmer-than-normal condition except for the South Africa.

March 18, 2014 (notes updated March 24, 2014)
ENSO forecast: We expect El Niño will start evolving in late boreal spring/early summer and reach its height in the late summer of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: We expect a neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean in 2014.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, South Africa, central Brazil and most parts of Australia will experience colder-than-normal condition in the austral fall. In the austral winter, most parts of the Southern Hemisphere will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Australia.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, North Africa, Middle East, Russia, Far East (including Japan), Canada, and eastern U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In contrast, India, northern part of Southeast Asia, and western U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition. In the boreal summer, most part of Europe, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas U.S. Canada, and Far East (including Japan) will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
Regarding precipitation, the Maritime Continent, Southeast Asia, Southern China, Taiwan, West Africa, will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In the boreal summer, the Maritime Continent, India, and Mexico will be in a drier-than-normal condition, possibly owing to the influence of El Niño. The El Niño will bring a slightly drier-than-normal condition in the eastern part of Australia in the austral winter. In Japan, we expect almost normal precipitation as an average of JJA; our model, however, suggests above normal precipitation in June because of the active Baiu front.

February 18, 2014 (notes updated February 20, 2014)
ENSO forecast: We expect El Niño-Modoki (rather than El Niño) will start evolving in late boreal spring/early summer and reach its height in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: We expect a neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean in 2014.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, South Africa and Brazil will experience colder-than-normal condition in the austral fall and winter, while central Africa, Australia, and the southern part of South America will be in a warmer-than-normal condition.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, Russia, southern India, Far East (including Japan), and U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while North Africa, Middle East, northern India, Southeast Asia, and Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition. Japan, southern China, Taiwan, India, West Africa, Central Africa, and eastern Australia will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while South Africa and a northern part of Brazil, and Mexico will be in a wetter-than-normal state as a seasonal average.
However, we must be careful about the above seasonal averaged view because of intraseasonal variations. In March, for example, we expect a colder-than normal condition in China and western Australia.

January 26, 2014 (notes updated January 27, 2014)
ENSO forecast: We expect El Nino will start evolving in late boreal spring and reach its height in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: We find a bifurcation in the prediction plume. One is a neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean; another is a weak positive IOD event starting in early boreal summer of 2014.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, as a seasonally averaged view, South Africa, western Australia, and eastern Brazil will experience colder-than-normal condition in the austral fall, while central Africa, eastern Australia, and a western part of the South American continent will be in a warmer-than-normal condition.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, Russia, China, Far East (including Japan), Canada, and U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while U.K., Middle East, and India will be in a slightly colder-than-normal condition. Southeast Asia (possibly related to possible evolution of El Nino), Japan, and West Africa will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while precipitation over South Africa and Australia will be in a normal state as a seasonal average.
However, we must be careful about the above seasonal averaged view. In March, we expect a colder-than normal condition in the Far East. In Australia, we expect a rather wet condition in the western Australia in March but drier-than-normal condition in overall Australia, particularly in the northern part in April. Our skill to predict those intra-seasonal variations need to be improved more.

December 9, 2013
Announcement: This month's forecast will be delayed due to the JAMSTEC computing system shutdown. We apologize for inconvenience. We will update this month's foreacst around the first week of January.

November 20, 2013 (notes updated November 22, 2013)
Attention: This month's prediction is rather different from the last month's, in particular for mid-latitude climate.
ENSO forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Pacific will persist. We expect a weak El Nino-Modoki will appear from the boreal spring of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist at least through the boreal summer of 2014.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere, including South Africa and Australia, will experience warmer-than-normal condition in December 2013.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, Middle East, West Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Canada, Mexico, central-eastern U.S., and Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in December 2013, while most part of China and western U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition in December 2013. However, in January 2014, the situation drastically changes over most of the Eurasian continent and North American continent; we expect a colder-than-normal condition in northern Europe, Russia, China, the Far-East (including Japan), and eastern US.
Australia and western U.S. will be in a drier-than-normal condition, while central Africa, Brazil and eastern U.S. will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal winter.

October 23, 2013 (notes updated October 25, 2013)
Attention: This month's prediction was rather different from the last month's result, in particular for mid-latitude climate.
ENSO forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Pacific will persist through the boreal spring of 2014, then we expect a weak El Nino state will appear from the boreal summer of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist through the boreal summer of 2014.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere, including South Africa and Australia, will experience warmer-than-normal condition in austral summer. In the Northern Hemisphere, West and East Africa, India, Southeast Asia, China, the Far East (including Japan), and eastern U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, while most part of Europe, Middle East, northern Brazil, western U.S. and western Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition in boreal winter.
East Africa, eastern Brazil, and northern Europe will be in a drier-than-normal condition, while northern Brazil and eastern U.S. will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal winter. The condition in Australia will be rather normal in austral spring and we expect a drier-than-normal condition in austral summer.

September 15, 2013 (notes updated September 19, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will start to decay in boreal fall, and the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal spring. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will continue developing by boreal fall, then it will start to decay. The tropical Indian Ocean will return to a neutral state by boreal winter.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, most part of Brazil and Southern Africa will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral spring. Most part of the Northern Hemisphere, except for southern U.S., Mexico, and U.K., will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal fall. However, in winter, the situation drastically changes over most of the Eurasian continent from Europe to Far East; we expect a below-normal cold condition. The eastern part of Canada and Alaska will also experience a below-normal cold condition in winter.
Most part of southeast Asia, southern China, eastern Africa, and U.S. will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil and western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal fall. The wet condition in northern Brazil will be strengthened in austral summer. The condition in Australia will be rather normal in austral spring and we expect above-normal precipitation in austral summer.

August 20, 2013 (notes updated August 21, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will start to decay through boreal autumn, and the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal winter. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will become clear in boreal autumn, then it will start to decay. The tropical Indian Ocean will return to a neutral state by boreal winter.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia, most part of Brazil, and Southern Africa will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral spring. In the Northern Hemisphere, Canada, western US, and western Africa are expected to experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal autumn. On the other hand, the SINTEX-F model predicts warmer-than-normal autumn in most parts of Russia, Middle East, India, eastern U.S., and Japan. Southeast Asia, southern China, western India, eastern Africa and western US will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil and western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in the coming boreal autumn. The condition in Australia will be rather normal. During the season, however, the Maritime Continent will receive above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events.

July 17, 2013 (notes updated July 24, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will continue through boreal autumn, and then start to decay. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal spring of the next year. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will become clear in late boreal fall. Because of this, rainfall over the Indian subcontinent is expected to be below normal; the weak La Nina condition may reduce the negative impact to some extent.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter. Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in austral winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, Mexico, western Russia, northern Europe, and northeastern China are expected to experience a cooler-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, the SINTEX-F model predicts warmer-than-normal summer in central-eastern Russia, Europe, Middle East, India, Canada, U.S., and Japan. Southeast Asia, India, central Africa, eastern U.S. and Japan will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil, Mexico, western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal summer. During the season, the Maritime Continent will receive above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events.

June 18, 2013 (notes updated June 21, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, weak La Nina condition) will continue through boreal fall, and start to decay from boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop from boreal summer, and reach its peak in early boreal fall. Because of this, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal; the weak La Nina condition might reduce the negative impact to some extent.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter. Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in austral winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, central Canada, Mexico, most part of Russia, and central Europe are expected to experience a cooler-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, the SINTEX-F model predicts warmer-than-normal summer in northern Russia, northern Europe, Middle East, India, and US. Japan will experience warmer-than-normal summer in July 2013, partly due to higher-than-normal pressure off the eastern coast of Japan.
Southern China, central Africa, western India and southern Brazil will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil, Mexico western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal summer. During the season, the Maritime Continent and parts of Australia will get above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events.

May 21, 2013 (notes updated May 31, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, weak La Nina condition) will continue through boreal fall, and start to decay from boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop from boreal summer, and reach its peak in early boreal fall. Because of this, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal; the weak La Nina condition might reduce the negative impact to some extent.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter.
Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in austral winter.
In the Northern Hemisphere, central Canada, southern Russia, and the Far East are expected to experience a cooler-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, SINTEX-F predicts warmer-than-normal summer in northern Russia, most part of Europe, India, central and eastern US.
Most part of US and southern Brazil will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil and Mexico will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal summer. During the season, the Maritime Continent and parts of Australia will get above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events. The SINTEX-F predicts less rain during the rainy (Baiu) season in the Far East partly due to the active convection locked to the Maritime Continent region. Stronger-than-normal Okhotsk High may be the direct reason.

April 18, 2013 (notes updated April 22, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, weak La Nina condition) will continue through boreal autumn, and start to decay from boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event will develop from boreal spring, and have a maximum peak in boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter.
Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal in austral winter.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Canada, western Russia, northeastern Europe, and northern China will be in a colder-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, we predict warmer-than-normal climate in most part of Russia, western Europe, India, US, and Japan in boreal summer.
Most part of US, India, southern Brazil will be in a drier-than-normal condition in late boreal spring, while northern Brazil, southeastern Asia will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in late boreal spring. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall will be smaller-than-normal partly due to a development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event. Northern Brazil, central Africa, Korea, and Japan will have less precipitation in boreal summer.

March 21, 2013 (notes updated April 4, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue through boreal autumn.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event will develop from boreal summer and have a maximum peak in boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: In the southern hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder than normal condition in austral autumn. Southern Africa will be in a neutral state in austral autumn. In the northern hemisphere, western Canada, northwestern US, and southeast Asia will be in a colder than normal condition in boreal spring. On the other hand, we predict warmer-than-normal climate in most part of Russia, Europe, India, central-eastern US, and Far East in coming boreal spring. Southern China, central US, central Asia, Middle East, and Europe will have less precipitation in boreal spring. In boreal summer, central Africa will be in a drier than normal condition, while southeastern Asia will be in a wetter than normal condition due to a development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event.

February 21, 2013 (notes updated March 7, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue evolving this boreal winter but will start decaying in coming boreal spring. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral state in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal fall.
Regional forecast: In the southern hemisphere, southern Africa, Australia, and northern Brazil will be in a colder and wetter than normal condition in austral autumn. In the northern hemisphere, western Canada, northwestern US, Southeast Asia, and Far East will be in a colder than normal condition in boreal spring. On the other hand, we predict warmer-than-normal climate in most part of Russia, Europe, India, and central-eastern US in coming boreal spring. Southern China, southern Japan, and central US will have less rain in boreal spring.

January 21, 2013 (notes updated January 28, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue evolving in boreal winter but will start decaying in coming boreal spring. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal fall. Weak warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean will develop in next boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil and eastern-central Australia will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. Southern Africa will be in a warmer than normal condition in austral autumn.
In the Northern Hemisphere, northern Canada, eastern US, India, and southeast Asia will have a warm winter. On the other hand, we predict colder-than-normal climate in western Europe, western US, and Far East this boreal winter. Most part of the world, except for western Canada, western US, and northern Brazil, will experience warmer-than-normal climate next boreal spring.

December 19, 2012
ENSO forecast: The tropical Pacific condition will be in a neutral state up to boreal spring. We, however, predict sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific will increase next boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: Weak basin-wide warming in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal summer.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil, southern Africa, and eastern Australia will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. In the Northern Hemisphere, northern Canada, India, Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia will have a warm winter. On the other hand, we predict colder-than-normal climate in western Europe, US, and Far East this boreal winter. Western Europe, US, Australia, East Africa, and India will experience warmer-than-normal climate next boreal spring.

November 16, 2012 (notes updated December 12, 2012)
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the central Pacific will persist at least through the next boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast: Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist through the next boreal summer. This may be due to the atmospheric influence (capacitor effect) from the Pacific El Niño-like condition.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil, southern Africa, eastern and western Australia, will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons.
Western Europe, eastern US, southern Canada, and Japan will experience colder-than-normal in boreal winter. We, however, predict warmer-than-normal climate in the central Russia, northern Canada, Indian subcontinent and southeast Asia. Above-normal precipitation (partly snow) would occur in southern China and Japan this winter.

October 16, 2012
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño-like condition) is decaying and will disappear in boreal winter. The tropical Pacific condition will be in a neutral state next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: Present positive Indian Ocean Dipole will be over by boreal winter. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist during the next year. A moderate negative Indian Ocean Dipole might occur in early summer next year.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, east of Brazil will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. Europe, US, and southern Canada will experience colder-than-normal in boreal winter. We, however, expect warmer-than-normal climate in the central Russia, northern Canada, Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. We expect an above-normal wet condition in southern China and Japan this winter.

September 24, 2012
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño-like condition) will stay but start to decay in boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast: The eastern Indian Ocean will be in a colder-than-normal condition due to occurrence of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole until late boreal autumn. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist at least through the next boreal spring. This may be due to the atmospheric influence (capacitor effect) from the Pacific El Niño-like condition.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate from austral spring to summer. In particular, many parts of Australia and Brazil will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in coming austral summer. The Far East will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal autumn. This seems to be related to the atmospheric influence from the positive Indian Ocean Dipole condition. Northern Eurasia, northern Canada, Europe, and India will also experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal winter. However, we expect colder-than-normal climate in the western Asia, eastern China, northern Africa, and US.

August 21, 2012
ENSO forecast: Current warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern tropical Pacific (almost like El Niño condition) will stay until boreal winter and start to decay in spring.
Indian Ocean forecast: The eastern Indian Ocean will be in almost neutral condition at least until boreal spring. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean, particularly in the east, will persist at least until boreal spring. This may be due to the atmospheric influence (capacitor effect) from the Pacific El Nino-like condition.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate from austral spring to summer. In particular, many parts of Australia are likely to suffer from a warmer and drier than normal condition in coming austral summer. In northern Eurasia, Canada, northern US, and India, it will be warmer-than-normal in boreal winter, while it will be colder-than-normal in the central Asia, China, and northern Africa. The Far East will also experience colder-than-normal climate in boreal winter, although the El Nino-like condition is likely to develop during the period. This seems to be related to strengthening of the Aleutian Low in response to the El Nino-like condition. We also expect a relatively wetter condition in the Far East from boreal fall to winter.

July 20, 2012
ENSO forecast: A warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern tropical Pacific (almost El Niño condition) will continue for next several months until boreal winter. Since the low-level winds do not show the typical ocean-atmosphere coupled nature of El Niño, it is too early to declare the onset of El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast: Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern Indian Ocean will persist through boreal winter. This oceanic condition is similar to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode. However, the signal is relatively weak.
Regional forecast: Most part of the globe except Canada, Alaska, China and northern Australia will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer.In boreal winter, it will be colder-than-normal in the central Asia, China, Far East and North America. Most part of Africa will have warmer-than-normal climate in boreal fall. We expect a relatively wet condition in the Far East in boreal fall to winter. Warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue in East Africa and India from boreal summer to fall possibly owing to the negative IOD. West Africa and Brazil will be relatively wetter than normal in austral spring.

June 14, 2012 (notes updated June 19, 2012)
ENSO forecast: Although there is still a warm sea surface temperature anomaly near the eastern boundary of the basin, it will disappear by boreal fall and the neutral state will come back. It will continue at least until spring of the next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop in boreal summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Most parts of the globe except Canada, Alaska, and Australia will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer. In boreal winter, it will be colder-than-normal in most parts of Eurasian continent.
Most part of Africa will have warmer-than-normal climate in borealfall.
Northeast China, Korea, and Japan will have relatively less rain in Baiu/Meiu/Chagma season; this may be due to the evolution of the negative IOD and related suppressed convective activities (dry conditions) over the Indo-China Peninisula. Persistence of the abnormally strong Okhotsk high may be also responsible for this.
We are afraid that warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue in East Africa and India from boreal summer to fall owing to the negative IOD.
Australia and Brazil will be relatively colder and wetter than normal in austral spring.

May 21, 2012 (notes updated May 27, 2012)
ENSO forecast: The tropical Pacific condition has almost returned to a neutral state, although there is a warming signal of sea surface temperature near the eastern boundary of the basin. The neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: European countries and Middle America will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer. In boreal fall and winter, however, it will be colder-than-normal in most of the Eurasian continent and US. Japan will have relatively less rain in Baiu/Meiu season, and a normal summer temperature; this may be due to the evolution of the negative IOD and related suppressed convective activities (dry conditions) over the Indo-China Peninsula. We are afraid that very dry conditions are expected in India and East Africa in boreal fall, also due to the negative IOD. Australia and Brazil will be colder and wetter than normal during September-November.

April 13, 2012 (notes updated April 16, 2012)
ENSO forecast: The tropical Pacific condition is now in a neutral state. This neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Most of the Eurasian continent including Mediterranean countries will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer. We expect a normal summer in the Far East. In boreal fall and winter, however, it will be colder-than-normal in most of the Eurasian continent and US. Japan, Korea China will have relatively less rain in Meiu season. Dry conditions are expected in East Africa in boreal fall. Australia will experience rather normal rain in austral winter and fall, but less rain in austral summer.

March 19, 2012 (notes updated March 22, 2012)
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina-type condition is decaying rapidly. The tropical Pacific condition will be back to a neutral state by summer. This neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: Sea surface temperature in the northern Indian Ocean will be colder-than-normal up to fall. A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Most of the Eurasian continent and US will experience warmer-than-normal climate in spring. In boreal summer, however, it will be colder-than-normal in many parts of the globe. Japan, Korea China will have relatively less rain in Meiu season. Wet conditions are expected in Australia in austral fall and winter. In contrast, dry conditions are expected in southern Africa, southern Brazil in austral fall and winter.

February 20, 2012 (notes updated February 28, 2012)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition continues in the boreal winter of 2012 but it will start decaying from the spring of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer of 2012 and then peak in boreal fall. The negative IOD would bring more rainfall over Indonesia. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Large areas of Eurasia and USA will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal spring. Australia and northern Brazil would have colder-than-normal and wet climate during March-May. Eastern China and southern Japan will experience a weaker-than-normal Meiyu-Baiu season in early boreal summer of 2012. Indian sub-continent is expected to experience a weaker summer monsoon.

January 18, 2012 (notes updated January 21, 2012)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition continues in the boreal winter and spring of 2012 but it will start decaying from the summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer of 2012 and then peak in boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina condition, colder-than-normal condition will continue over many parts of the world in following seasons. Whereas, the northern Eurasia and USA will experience the warmer-than-normal climate in boreal spring. Japan will experience the warmer-than-normal condition in spring. This seems to be due to influences from the anomalous high simulated over the northern North Pacific in response to La Nina. Eastern China and southern Japan will experience a weaker-than-normal Meiyu-Baiu season in early boreal summer of 2012.
Associated with the negative IOD, the austral winter rains over Indonesia and Australia are expected to be above normal. However, Indian sub-continent is expected to experience a weaker summer monsoon.

December 21, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition would peak in the boreal winter of 2012 and then start decaying.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral condition would continue in boreal　winter of 2012. A weak negative IOD would occur in early summer of the 2012. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. The warm anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would disappear by boreal spring season.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina condition,cool-wet condition would occur in Australia, Brazil, and India in　following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe in following seasons. Whereas,　the northern Eurasia and USA would experience the warmer-than-normal climate in boreal winter and spring. It would be colder than normal in eastern China in coming winter. In contrast to our empirical expectation, Japan would experience the warmer-than-normal condition in winter and spring. This seems to be due to influences from the anomalous high simulated over the northern North Pacific in response to La Nina.

November 20, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition would continue to grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and spring and start decaying in boreal summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: Indian Ocean came back to the neutral condition in October. The neutral condition would continue in boreal winter of 2012. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal spring season. A weak negative IOD would occur in early summer of 2012.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except for the northern Eurasia and USA in following seasons. It would be colder than normal in Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) in coming winter.

October 14, 2011 (notes updated October 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition has been growing as we predicted. The La Nina condition would continue to grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and spring and start decaying in boreal summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD would stay during this boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal spring season.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in the southern Africa, Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except for the northern Eurasia and eastern USA in following seasons. It would be colder than normal in Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) in coming winter.

September 17, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition has begun; this has been correctly forecast since many months ago. The La Nina condition would grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and decay in boreal spring-summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD would stay during this boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal winter and spring seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. During this boreal fall, wet/flooding condition would occur in Indonesia, India, and the eastern Africa. Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) would have warm/wet condition in this fall season and colder weather in winter.

August 12, 2011 (notes updated August 21, 2011)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina Modoki-like condition will persist for a while; this has been correctly forecast since many months ago. Eventually, La Nina condition would come back late this year and persist during the whole 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD will stay during boreal fall of 2011. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the returning La Nina condition, cool-wet condition will be observed in the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil in following austral spring and summer. The La Nina will also help to reduce the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. Wet/flooding condition will be realized in Indonesia, India, the eastern Africa. A fall rain (shurin) front will be active in eastern China, Korea and western Japan.

July 14, 2011
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has finished during the last month. Consistent with previous forecasts, our model again shows that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist out to 2012.
IO forecast: A weak positive IOD would occur in August to November 2011; this may be related to current subsurface cooling condition in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Cool-wet condition in southern Africa would return back late austral spring. Many parts of Australia would have wet-cool condition during late austral spring to summer. Southeastern China-western Japan would have a dry condition in August but with above-normal Akisame (autumn rain) in September. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding during late summer to fall associated with the influence of La Nina and positive IOD.

June 14, 2011 (notes updated June 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has decayed during the past months and showed a Modoki-type pattern. Although the possibility of an El Nino development cannot be excluded (if surface westerly wind bursts in the equatorial western Pacific would happen in following months), our model forecasts continuously show that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: Large uncertainty exists for the IOD forecasts; neither strong positive IOD nor strong negative IOD would occur this year. Warmer seas surface temperature would persist west of Australia.
Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter but weaken in spring. Most of Australia would have a dry austral winter and normal spring. Japan would have a dry condition in July-August 2011; seasonal mean temperature would be almost normal this summer but with strong intraseasonal fluctuations. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in July-August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding associated with the La Nina influence.

May 11, 2011 (notes updated May 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current weakening La Nina signal would decay further in following months. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki pattern. However, the La Nina condition would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: During boreal summer-fall of 2011, a weak positive IOD would possibly happen (despite of the La Nina) but with uncertainty.
Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter-spring seasons. While most of Australia would have a warm/dry austral winter but a wet/cool spring. Japan would have slightly above-normal Baiyu precipitation in June but dry condition in July-August 2011; temperature would be almost normal. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in following summer. Most of India would have good rains associated with the La Nina influence.

April 13, 2011 (notes updated April 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina signal has weakened rapidly in March 2011 and would decay further in following months. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki-type pattern. However, the cold La Nina condition might rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: During boreal summer-fall of 2011, a weak negative IOD might occur with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast: The wet condition in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa, due to the La Nina influence, would weaken in following austral winter but might return back in austral spring. Associated with the La Nina-related cyclonic circulation anomalies east of the Philippines, dry condition would occur from the southeastern China to southern Japan during the boreal spring, followed by slightly above normal Meiyu-Baiyu precipitation in June and normally hot but drier summer condition in 2011.

March 8, 2011 (notes updated March 23, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina has started to weaken and would decay further in following boreal spring and summer seasons. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki pattern. The cold La Nina condition might rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: Cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and warm anomalies along the west coast of Australia, in association with the La Nina impact, would persist in the following season. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD would occur with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast: The flooding condition in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa, due to the La Nina influence, tend to weaken but persist in boreal spring. Southeastern China, southwestern Japan, US and Europe would have warm and dry condition during boreal spring-summer seasons. While, Northeastern China, Korea, and northern Japan would have relatively cool and wet spring-summer seasons.

February 14, 2011 (notes updated February 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would decay in following boreal spring and summer seasons but would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012. The revived one would show a La Nina of Modoki nature
IO forecast: Associated with the La Nina impact, the surface temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean has become colder than normal in January 2011. The tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease further in following seasons but with strong warming along the west coast of Australia. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD might tend to occur.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina influence, below-normal surface air temperature and above-normal precipitation would continue in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa during the austral fall-winter. Southeastern China,southwestern Japan, US and Europe would have warmer-than-normal and dry climate during spring-summer seasons.

January 17, 2011 (notes updated January 19, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition has reached its peak and we expect it will gradually decay. Since the present La Nina is rather strong, it will take about a year to disappear completely.
IO forecast: The negative IOD condition has finished. Associated with the La Nina impact, the surface temperature in major parts of the tropical Indian Ocean (except the western coast of Australia) will be below normal up to the early summer in early 2011; this is quite a contrast to the case in 2010. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD may occur again.
Regional forecast: Associated with the strong La Nina, the global mean surface air temperature decreased last month and severe cold stormy weather happened in northern Eurasia and parts of North America. We expect that the surface air temperature in Eurasia,East Asia northern North America, Australia, Brazil, and Africa will be below normal in following months. There is a possibility that more precipitation/floods will occur in Australia, South Africa, and northeastern Brazil in early 2011. East China, Korea and western Japan will have a hot summer with less precipitation in 2011 because of the persistent La Nina impact.

December 13, 2010
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would have reached its peak intensity and decay in following seasons. This La Nina event might be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: The current negative IOD condition (a clear dipole pattern is seen in rainfall anomaly field) would finish soon. During the first half of 2011, due to this La Nina's influence, sea surface temperature in many parts of the tropical Indian Ocean would be colder-than-normal except a large warming near the west coast of Australia.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would decrease in the following seasons. Whereas, southeastern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate in association with the well-known negative PNA atmospheric teleconnection. Parts of northeastern Asia (including Japan) might have warmer-than-normal winter. Above-normal precipitation would occur in Australia, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries.

November 11, 2010 (notes updated November 22, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would continue to grow and reach its peak strength in following months. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A negative IOD condition with a clear dipole pattern of rainfall anomaly is occurring and would persist till the end of 2010. During the first half of 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur in the tropical Indian Ocean. In boreal summer and fall of 2011, a weak negative IOD condition would probably occur again.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be colder-than-normal in the following boreal winter and spring seasons. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent and southeastern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate. Surface temperature over Japan would be near normal in winter but warmer-than-normal in spring. Above-normal precipitation would occur in South Africa, Australia, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries. Cold stormy weather might occur in southeastern China, along the Japan Sea coastal regions of Japan, and northern North America in early 2011.

October 15, 2010 (notes updated October 18, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strengthening La Nina condition would continue to grow and become a very strong cold event in following months. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A negative IOD condition is occurring and would persist till the end of 2010. During the first half of 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur in the tropical Indian Ocean.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be colder-than-normal in the following boreal winter and spring seasons. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and southern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate. Above-normal precipitation would occur in South Africa, Australia, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries. Associated with the persisting warm sea surface temperature around Japan, warm and wet (probably more snow along the Japan Sea coast) condition would occur over large parts of Japan during this boreal winter.

September 10, 2010 (notes updated September 13, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would continue to grow and reach a peak phase in following boreal winter. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A weak negative IOD would occur in the boreal fall because of the influence of this strong La Nina. In early 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina influence, more rainfalls would occur in the eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern South America, Australia, and India in this fall season. South Africa, Australia, and northeastern Brazil would have cool and flooding austral summer. Current warmer-than-normal condition in Japan would persist in following months. During the boreal winter, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below-than-normal. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and southeastern North America would experience a warm winter.

August 18, 2010
ENSO forecast: The La Nina condition has continued to develop quickly in July 2010. A fairly strong cold event would occur in following months and peak around the end of 2010. This La Nina condition would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: Basin-wide sea surface temperature warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean would persist up to the end of 2010. In early 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur due to the La Nina influence.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina influence, more rainfalls would occur in the eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern South America, Australia, and India in following boreal fall and winter seasons. During the winter, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below-than-normal. Whereas, the Europe, northern Eurasian continent and southeastern North America would experience a warm winter. Heavy snowfall might occur in the Japanese coastal region facing the Sea of Japan in coming winter.

July 16, 2010 (notes updated July 19, 2010)
ENSO forecast: La Nina condition has developed quickly in June 2010. A fairly strong cold event would occur in following months. This La Nina condition might last for a longer-than-normal period (i.e., more than one year).
IO forecast: Basin-wide sea surface temperature warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean would persist up to the end of 2010. In early 2011, a basin-wide cooling would occur due to the La Nina influence.
Others: In August 2010, the stronger Meiyu-Baiyu rainfall front which has caused more rains or floods in the southeastern China and southern Japan over the past month would migrate northward. This would lead to more rains/floods in the northeastern China but hot-dry summer in southeastern China and southern Japan. This is related to an anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Indonesia, northern South America, East Africa, and India would experience more rains in following fall and winter seasons. Many parts of Australia might experience more rains from late 2010 (October) to early 2011. During the next boreal winter, many parts of the globe would experience colder-than-normal weather associated with the strong La Nina influence.

June 14, 2010 (notes updated June 17, 2010)
ENSO forecast: La Nina condition has started to appear. A fairly strong La Nina condition would rapidly develop in boreal summer and continue developing up to early next year.
IO forecast: There is large uncertainty for IOD forecast; the ensemble spread is very large. Basin-wide warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean might persist in following boreal summer and fall seasons.
Others: In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation and lower-than-normal temperature would appear in eastern Asia. We expect a stronger-than-normal Baiu and Akisame (autumn rain) seasons. This is related to an anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Indonesia, southeast Asia and parts of Australia would experience more rains because of the la Nina condition. Northeast Brazil, East Africa, and India would experience more rains because of nearby high sea surface temperature.

May 13, 2010 (notes updated May 17, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current Modoki-type El Nino has already ended in early May. A fairly strong La Nina condition would rapidly develop in boreal summer.
IO forecast: A very weak positive IOD would happen in following summer and fall, probably triggered by existing colder-than-normal subsurface temperature in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. However, the forecast plume is so spread and we are not certain of this averaged forecast at this stage.
Others: In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation and lower-than-normal temperature would appear in eastern Asia with a stronger-than-normal Meiyu-Baiyu season. Indonesia, parts of Australia, Northeast Brazil, East Africa, and India would experience more rains or floods.

April 15, 2010 (notes updated April 16, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current Modoki-type El Nino would end soon in the following months. A fairly strong La Nina condition would develop in boreal summer.
IO forecast: Basin-wide warming would continue in the tropical Indian Ocean until following summer. A negative IOD would happen in Sep-Nov 2010 associated with the La Nina development.
Others: Warmer-than-normal climate associated with current El Nino would decay after boreal summer over many parts of the globe, particularly in Northern Hemisphere continents and Australia, due to the influence of La Nina development. In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation would appear in eastern Asia with a strong Meiyu-Baiyu season. Indonesia, Australia, Northeast Brazil, and India would also experience more rains or floods. Current severe drought disaster in southeastern China might be slightly reduced in following months.

March 21, 2010 (notes updated March 23, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would end soon in the following months. A fairly strong La Nina condition would develop in boreal summer.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following spring and summer. There is a tendency of a negative IOD to happen in Sep-Nov 2010 associated with the La Nina development.
Others: Associated with the current El Nino influence, warmer climate would appear in following spring over many parts of the globe except the southeastern North America, Europe, and eastern Asia. In boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in southeastern China-western Japan related to the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Eastern Australia would have more precipitation than normal during May to August 2010. India would have good summer monsoon.

February 16, 2010 (notes updated February 18, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would decay quickly in the following season. A La Nina condition would appear after summer.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following spring and summer. There is a tendency of a weak positive IOD to happen in Sep-Nov 2010.
Others: Associated with the current El Nino influence, warmer climate would appear in following spring over many parts of the globe except the southeastern North America, Europe, and eastern China. In boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in southeastern China-western Japan related to the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Eastern Australia might have more precipitation than normal during May to August 2010.

January 18, 2010 (notes updated January 19, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would decay quickly in following months. A La Nina condition would appear late this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino influence.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following months and spring season over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except that colder conditions would occur in the southeastern North America and northeastern Eurasia. Large parts of Australia, South Africa and northeastern Brazil would suffer from a warmer and dry condition. During boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Northern and eastern coastal areas of Australia might have more precipitation than normal during June-August.

December 16, 2009 (notes updated December 18, 2009)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific grew last month and reached a magnitude of 1.5C in Nino3.4 region. It would reach its peak phase during Dec 2009 - Feb 2010, and then decay quickly in next boreal spring.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino influence.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following winter and spring seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern North America. Large parts of Australia, South Africa and northeastern Brazil would suffer from a hot and dry condition. Warmer winter would appear in East Asia associated with an eastward shift of the Aleutian Low. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines.

November 16, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacfic would grow slightly in following months, reaching an intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino evolution.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following winter and spring seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern North America. Large parts of Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines.

October 19, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino would grow slightly in following months, reaching an intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino evolution.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southern North America and mid-latitude Eurasia. Large parts of Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone east of the Philippines.

September 14, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino condition would grow slightly in following months, reaching a weak-to-intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino development. A local warming would appear west of Sumatra-Java in Sep-Nov 2009, bringing more rainfall over that region.
Others: Warmer climate would appear during Dec-Feb over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern area of North America. The negative IOD-like rainfall in Sep-Nov 2009 might help to increase precipitation in some parts of Australia. In Dec-Feb, however, Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition.

August 14, 2009 (notes updated August 19, 2009)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino condition will keep growing in following months, reaching an intermediate-to-strong El Nino late in this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons possibly associated with the El Nino development in the Pacific. A local warming would appear west of Sumatra in Sep-Nov 2009, resembling a negative IOD condition.
(*) The current cool condition in the Far East would persist in the following season. Warmer than normal condition would appear during Dec-Feb in most part of the globe related to the El Nino influence. Australia would suffer from a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following two seasons.

July 17, 2009 (notes updated July 28, 2009)
1) The SST warming is the most prominent in the central tropical Pacific. It is more like El Nino Modoki (or Dateline El Nino) rather than conventional El Nino. Also, we notice that the warming anomaly spans almost all tropical Pacific. The anomalous condition is seen at least up to the early summer next year.
2) The SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean shows basin-wide warming.

* The surface temperature near Japan shows negative anomalies in fall and southern Japan is expected to receive higher than normal rainfall.
* The surface temperature in the central and eastern US shows consistent negative anomalies at least up to next late spring. Precipitation anomaly over northern parts of West Coast will be drier whereas the southern parts are expected to get normal to above normal rainfall.
* The surface temperature anomaly in Australia is positive up to at least next Apr-May. The precipitation anomaly is negative or close to normal. Most parts of eastern Australia are expected to be drier in Sep-Nov with a chance of revival of normal rainfall in Dec-Feb.

June 12, 2009
ENSO forecast: A strong El Nino would occur.
IOD forecast: A weak positive IOD would appear, probably in response to the strong El Nino.
Related with the strong El Nino and weak positive IOD, Australia would have dry and warm austral winter and spring. India would have poor summer monsoon.
Note: Certain uncertanties may arise from the renewing of Earth Simulator. El Nino prediction appears to be underestimated.

May 15, 2009
ENSO forecast: The probability to have an El Nino late this year is increasing.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would occur during boreal summer and fall.
Related with the negative IOD during summer-fall, Australia would have good rain. Eastern China-western Japan and Europe might be cooler than normal. India would have poor summer monsoon (less rainfall).
Note: Certain biases may arise from the renewing of Earth Simulator. In particular, El Nino signal appears to be underestimated according to our preliminary check.

April 20, 2009
ENSO forecast: La Nina is ending. There is possibility of El Nino late this year.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would occur during boreal summer and fall.
Because of negative IOD, southeastern Australia would have good rain in boreal fall.
Note: The super-computer "Earth Simulator" was renewed this month. Please be careful that additional uncertainty for the forecasts may exist.

March 13, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina would continue to persist surprisingly.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would appear in the second half of this year.
Other: Dry condition in mid-China and southeastern Australia would occur during the following spring, but might finish in boreal summer.

February 13, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina would decay soon during the following spring and summer. An intermediate-to-strong El Nino might happen late this year.
IOD forecast: It is still too early to say. Both positive and negative IOD have equal probability of occurrence.
Other: Current drought disaster in mid-China would become worse because of the possible warm and dry condition during the following spring season. And the drought in southeast Australia might persist too.

January 19, 2009
Surface air temperature anomalies over the globe in February 2009 would be similar to those during typical La Nina year. In particular, East China-western Japan and northern North America would be colder than normal.

December 15, 2008
La Nina would develop in next seasons and might last until early 2010.

November 15, 2008
East Asia would experience colder weather in January-February 2009. Southeastern China would again have cold stormy weather, probably worse than what happened early 2008.

June 2008
A strong positive IOD would appear this summer and fall. This would be the third event just after the 2006 and 2007 episodes. This event might cause extreme climate anomalies in broad areas."

May 2007
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to develop in late summer of 2007. In the Pacific, a La Nina condition is forecast. This a rare combination. Good Indian Summer Monsoon, hot summer in the East Asia, and dry boreal winter in Australia might be expected.

2006
The positive IOD in summer and fall of 2006 has been constantly forecast from different initial conditions since 1 November 2005. The overall situation in Indo-Pacific sector looks similar to that in 1994.