Can Antarctic Radar Improve Southern Hemisphere Weather Forecasts?

Limited weather observations over Antarctica often lead to less accurate forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere. In a new study, Japanese researchers found that adding continuous radar observations from Antarctica improved forecasts of atmospheric rivers—long, narrow bands of moisture that can bring heavy rain, snow, and flooding. Their findings highlight the value of continuous Antarctic observations for more reliable weather forecasting across SH.

Weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are generally less accurate than those in the Northern Hemisphere because Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean have relatively few weather observations. With limited information about atmospheric conditions in one of the world's most remote regions, forecasting models often struggle to accurately predict the movement of weather systems. This is especially true for atmospheric rivers that can trigger heavy rain, snowfall, flooding, and strong winds across Australia, New Zealand, South America, and Antarctica. Improving forecasts of these weather systems is therefore essential for protecting lives and property, supporting aviation and shipping, and helping communities prepare for hazardous weather.

To solve this problem, researchers from Japan investigated whether continuous radar observations from Antarctica could improve weather forecasts across SH. In a study made available online on July 11, 2026, in the Scientific Reports journal, Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato of the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR), Japan, together with Professor Jun Inoue and Associate Professor Yoshihiro Tomikawa of NIPR; Dr. Akira Yamazaki of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan; and Professor Kaoru Sato from The University of Tokyo, Japan, found that incorporating hourly wind observations from an Antarctic radar into a numerical weather prediction system could improve forecasts of atmospheric circulation and atmospheric rivers over SH.
DOI：10.1038/s41598-026-61250-x

This work was funded by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant number: JP25H00002, JP24H02339, JP22K14103, JP20H04963, JP19K14802, and JP18H05053). This work was supported by the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) under MEXT. This study was a part of the Science Program of the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE). The numerical weather prediction for this study was conducted by the JAMSTEC’s Earth Simulator.

Title: Antarctic Radar for Better Southern Hemisphere Weather Forecasts
Caption: Sparse weather observations over Antarctica limit the accuracy of Southern Hemisphere weather forecasts. Now, researchers show that assimilating hourly wind observations from the Antarctic PANSY radar improves weather forecasts and atmospheric river prediction, demonstrating the value of Antarctic radar data for numerical weather prediction.
Credit: Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan.

For more details, please visit the National Institute of Polar Research website.
https://www.nipr.ac.jp/english/info/notice/20260928.html