Objective

The purpose of this research is performing global warming prediction which included feedback of a carbon cycle using developing the integrated model of the earth environment (earth system) which can simulate changing and going in one, and it, change of the whole earth environment, i.e., composition of climate, the atmosphere, and the ocean, and the ecosystem of land and sea affecting it mutually.

In old global warming prediction, about the future of the carbon-dioxide (CO₂) concentration in the atmosphere which caused warming, using the model simplified based on CO₂ release scenario by human activities, the absorbed amount to the ocean and a terrestrial ecosystem (vegetation and soil) was estimated, future prediction of air CO₂ concentration was performed first, the result was introduced into the climate model and the simulation of warming and a climatic change has been performed. However, it cannot be said that this is enough. Although CO₂ increase causes warming and a climatic change, it is because the feedback effect was not conversely adopted although a climatic change affects CO₂ in the atmosphere concentration. Disassembly of a soil organic matter progresses by warming, the concentration of CO₂ or methane (CH₄) increases into the atmosphere, namely, since positive feedback may act, it is dangerous that this is disregarded.

You have to predict by the model which included the carbon cycle process in the climate model, and adopted the feedback effect. Moreover, although it is thought that warming and a climatic change cause change of an ecosystem, it also influences CO₂ and the concentration of CH₄. Furthermore, the troposhere ozone which is another greenhouse gas is also influenced of warming and a climatic change. Then, it is necessary to adopt the process of the carbon cycle and atmospheric composition change over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem to a climate model, and to conduct the warming prediction experiments including structure) and those feedbacks for (carbon cycle, atmospheric composition, and a climate integrated model.