JCOPE-T a4dVar Ensemble Seasonal ocean prediction

   
What's new
  November 11, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic-biharmonic viscosity, bottom friction by Varlamov et al. (2015), rotated baroclinic pressure gradient scheme from Bulletin-20231024
October 10, 2023:Ensenble Sensitivity Analysis targeting south of Muroto
September 10, 2023:Introducing the strong relaxation toward the mgdsst climatology in climatrocgy forcng runs from Bulletin-20230829
August 15, 2023:Adding the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 forcing (20-member) experiments
August 4, 2023:Wind stress x 1.2
July 17, 2023:No reralxation to MGDSST monthly climatology
July 06, 2023:Ensemble perturbations x (1.5 -> 2)
July 03, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1 and Ensemble perturbations x (1 -> 1.5)
June 26, 2023:Tentatively Opened
 
Kuroshio path prediction driven by the seasonal prediction and climatology forcings from the NCEP CFSv2 product.
Ensemble mean SST anomaly compared to SST climatological daily mean from JCOPE2M 1993-2022 data
Ensemble mean SST difference between the forecast runs driven by the NCEP-CFSv2 and its climatology forcings
Ensemble mean SST anomaly driven by the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 forcings compared to SST climatological daily mean from JCOPE2M 1993-2022 data
Ensemble mean SST difference between the forecast runs driven by the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 and its climatology forcings
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20230805 half extraction of ocean current for evaluation of the relative wind stress
20230805 20230728
20230720 - Wind stress x 1.2
20230720 20230712 20230704
20230626 - No relaxation of surface heat flux to monthly MGDSST climatology (Prediction forcing alone)
20230626 - Weaker relaxation of surface heat flux to monthly MGDSST climatology (Prediction forcing alone)
20230626
20230618 - Ensemble perturbations x (1.5 -> 2) (Prediction forcining alone)
20230618 - Wind stress x 1.1 & Ensemble perturbations x (1.0 -> 1.5)
20230618
20230606
CFSv2 original SST daily anomaly forecast
MGDSST daily anomaly for valiation
Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis targeting south of Muroto
E-mail: jcope@jamstec.go.jp