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1 Outline

1. Main point of research

The purpose of this research is performing global warming prediction which included feedback of a carbon cycle using developing the integrated model of the earth environment (earth system) which can simulate changing and going in one, and it, change of the whole earth environment, i.e., composition of climate, the atmosphere, and the ocean, and the ecosystem of land and sea affecting it mutually.

In old global warming prediction, about the future of the carbon-dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere which caused warming, using the model simplified based on CO2 release scenario by human activities, the absorbed amount to the ocean and a terrestrial ecosystem (vegetation and soil) was estimated, future prediction of air CO2 concentration was performed first, the result was introduced into the climate model and the simulation of warming and a climatic change has been performed. However, it cannot be said that this is enough. Although CO2 increase causes warming and a climatic change, it is because the feedback effect was not conversely adopted although a climatic change affects CO2 in the atmosphere concentration. Disassembly of a soil organic matter progresses by warming, the concentration of CO2 or methane (CH4) increases into the atmosphere, namely, since positive feedback may act, it is dangerous that this is disregarded.

You have to predict by the model which included the carbon cycle process in the climate model, and adopted the feedback effect. Moreover, although it is thought that warming and a climatic change cause change of an ecosystem, it also influences CO2 and the concentration of CH4. Furthermore, the troposhere ozone which is another greenhouse gas is also influenced of warming and a climatic change. Then, it is necessary to adopt the process of the carbon cycle and atmospheric composition change over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem to a climate model, and to conduct the warming prediction experiments including structure) and those feedbacks for (carbon cycle, atmospheric composition, and a climate integrated model.

2. Research outline

It is based on it using the existing CCSR/NIES model developed by the University of Tokyo climate center and National Institute for Environmental Studies as a "physical climate model" of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which mainly treats physical condition, The "earth system integrated model" which made the 3rd year for the partial integrated model which adopted to each many process currently studied in each area of investigation of an earth frontier research system, such as chemical composition change of the atmosphere and the ocean and substance exchange of a terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, to the standard, and combined the whole on it is completed within a research period. All the ball carbon cycle models over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem will be made from the process by three - 4th, and the warming prediction experiment which included the feedback effect of warming and a carbon cycle using the model which combined it and a climate model will be conducted. About warming and the interaction of atmospheric composition or a terrestrial ecosystem, since there are still more processes of not solving, about the warming itself, by the field observation and process research which are performed on the basis of other subjects (the research on parameterization for terrestrial ecosystem model creation, advancement of parameterization of many physics process (the atmosphere and the sea field)) of a symbiosis project, it asks for a required parameter, process research required for the improvement in accuracy is conversely requested from the result of a model, and improvement

3. Research yearly plan

FY 2002 : Maintenance of the individual model towards research strategy planning of the whole and a sub subject, and partial integrated model production with each sub subject.
FY 2003 : It is development of a partial integrated model for every sub subject.
FY 2004 : A partial integrated model is completed in each sub subject. Numerical simulation start on this stage and in connection with global warming. It applies to the following year (2005) and an experiment is ended, and a result is summarized so that it may be enough for IPCC-FAR as much as possible.
FY 2005 : Development of the "earth systems model" which ended the experiment by a partial integrated model and unified the whole in parallel simultaneously is started.
FY 2006 : Earth systems model completion. Trial of all earth environment change prediction in accordance with warming using it.

4. Research program in FY 2002

These each is connected to a physical climate model (the existing thing developed by the model centering on the "physical" process of the atmosphere, the ocean, and land and CCSR/NIES is used), continuing and furthering [ pull, ] development (atmospheric composition, terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, etc.) of an individual model currently performed in each area of investigation of a its present location ball frontier research system, and the work which makes a "partial integrated model" is started.

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and climatic change joint model development

(1) Build the suitable model including a simpler process (about four ingredients) for the side and the integrated model which further development of a model including detailed living thing and geochemistry process (ten or more ingredients) advanced in the global warming domain about a sea carbon cycle, and start the work introduced into the inside resolution version of oceanographic model COCO developed in the University of Tokyo climate center.

(2) Advance simplification so that an integrated model may be suited in the SimCYCLE model currently used in the ecosystem change area of investigation about a terrestrial carbon cycle. the earth surface which makes a process model contrary to having high-resolution-ized about resolution in order to treat earth surface in detail in an ecosystem area of investigation so that the schedule resolution of about 100km of an integrated model may be balanced and which is simultaneously used in the water cycle domain -- integration of process models MATSIRO and SimCYCLE is considered.

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

Face-lift for including the model of the "all the ball chemistry weather reports" performed in the atmospheric composition area of investigation now in an integrated model is performed. One of them is choosing the atmospheric chemistry process corresponding to a raise in resolving (280km -> 100km), and it.

(3) Chill area model

About an ice sheet change model, it limits for advancing original research in a global warming area of investigation for the time being.

(4) Physical climate core model improvement

About a physical climate core model, even the stratosphere and the mesosphere to the altitude of about 80km are included, and the work which makes perpendicular resolution high simultaneously is started. Consideration of the suitable process model for an integrated model is also performed in middle atmosphere chemistry (ozone stratification study) process.

5. Enforcement organization in FY 2002

Japan Marine Science and Technology Center is used as a supervisor research implementation organization, and a research representative is made into Taro Matsuno (earth frontier research system system length). Research and development is done by forming the next research sub thema.

(1) A carbon cycle, a carbon cycle, and climatic change joint model development

Representative: T. Oikawa
    (1) terrestrial carbon cycle model
    A. Ito , K. Tanaka , I. Ichii

    (2) Marine organism geochemical model
    Y. Yamanaka , M. kishi , M. Aida , C. Yoshikawa , M. Kawamiya

    (3) terrestrial ecosystem change model
    T. Kohyama, H. Sato

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

Representative: M. Takahashi
    (1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model
    M. takigawa, S. Watanabe, T. Nagashima, K. Sudo, T. Takemura

    (2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation
    N. Kuba, T. Suzuki, T. Nozawa, Y. Tsushima, K. Suzuki, T. Nakajima

(3) Chill area model

Representative: A. Abe
    T. Segawa, R. Ohgaito

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

Representative: S. Emori
    T Suzuki, T Suzuki, K. Takata M. Kimoto, T. Matsuno , H. Hasumi, S. Watanabe

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