2 Outline of Results

1. Generalization

The trial which it actually combines many element models and is made into an integrated model although it argued about the integrated model of an earth system about the concept until now is just going to be started in the main research centers in the world quickly very recently. It is known by the background that there is a possibility that global warming may have a carbon cycle and especially big influence to CO₂ absorption power of a terrestrial ecosystem, and future global warming prediction has recognition that you must be a thing including feedback of a carbon cycle in it. The specialists of related each field had gathered at such time, it was very timely that the earth frontier which has the power of integrated model development uniquely in Japan started the project towards it, and it was effective. This thing is the first result.

Thus, since it is the research task which needs cooperation and cooperation with many specialities close moreover of an exploitation stage even if it sees globally, it is necessary to assemble a fit researcher. Although six researchers were involved with a general invitation, the core in which this project undertaken by crossing the existing domain of an earth frontier by people who all were excellent in each speciality, and had volition strong against "the production of an integrated model" became brave was able to be made. This is the second result.

The member of each field reviewed the present condition of the modeling in each field, and elaborated on the strategy of integrated model development, and in order to decide the route which reaches the rereeling reel of a model, and there, it had the place of discussion 7 times in FY 2002. Consequently, although it still put and there was also a place which has not run out, the structure of the rereeling reel of a model was decided and the prospect that the warming prediction experiment by an integrated model could be conducted was located on the 4th IPCC report (2007). This is the most important result as the first year. In addition, though the work which extends a physical climate core model to the stratosphere was started and difficulty was held, respectively while starting the ocean and a biochemistry model with the necessity of from now on developing, it began to move anyhow.

2. Each sub thema, the outline for every individual item

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and a climatic change joint model

(1) terrestrial carbon cycle model

the carbon balance of the terrestrial ecosystem which affects air CO₂ concentration (a short period -- long-term) is presumed, and the ecosystem dynamic model which forecasts the leaf area index (LAI) which is an index representing the amount of functions of a terrestrial ecosystem is built.

(2) Marine organism geochemical model

The simple marine ecosystem model with four ingredients was included in the oceanic circulation model COCO which the University of Tokyo climate center and an earth frontier develop jointly, and the result of having performed integration for seven years was compared with observational data. The mixolimnion depth which is physical environment important for a marine ecosystem is comparatively often reproduced by the general circulation model, and the mixolimnion depth seasonal variation with the big amplitude in northern North Atlantic Ocean and the Antarctic Ocean is also expressed by the model. Moreover, the phenomenon in which the bloom of phytoplankton happened for the rapid change of the mixolimnion depth in signs that concentration becomes high also about the chlorophyll concentration distribution used as the index of a phytoplankton standing crop by northern North Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific, an equatorial region, and Ekman upwelling called the Antarctic Ocean, northern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Antarctic Ocean etc. was reproduced by the model. It has already completed and inclusion to the model of a carbonic-acid system is also due to perform integration for thousands of years required to reach regularly after this. In order to perform such long-term integration under a setup by this research which can be called high resolution as a marine ecosystem model of all balls, even if it uses an Earth Simulator, the real time for about three months is required, and in the conventional supercomputer, it can be said that it is impossible as a matter of fact.

(3) Construction of the vegetation zone moving projection model in a terrestrial carbon cycle model

The vegetation dynamic model used as the constituent factor is developed towards construction of a terrestrial integrated model. In order to acquire a fixed result under limited human resources and the limited period, this is taken as the vegetation dynamic model which specialized in vegetation change of the north region considered that the influence of warming arises most notably. In the high latitude area which is the extreme environment for a higher plant, disturbance by a very small climatic change and a very small forest fire has specified the vegetation dynamic state most strongly rather than the gap dynamic state assumed by the existing DGVM. Then, the polar ecosystem shift model ALFRESCO treating a specific dynamic state is used for such a high latitude area as a base. Although ALFRESCO predicts shift of a polar ecosystem based on experiential data, it does not treat the amount of Kimoto existing or size structure which are indispensable information on the occasion of construction of an integrated model. Then, extension of including vegetable growth / diffusion model in ALFRESCO is tried so that these can be treated. Moreover, the next extension is tried in order to obtain the prediction which can place reliance more. (1) Treat appropriately the hetero-scene of (2) polar which treats seed diffusion clearly.

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

(1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

Itself not only affects global warming, but troposhere ozone has the important role of controlling the photochemistry-life of warming gas, such as carbon dioxide and methane. While Book sub group estimates quantitatively the interaction of the troposhere and stratosphere ozone, and a climate change using the general circulation model explicitly combined with the chemical process, in an integrated model, it is due to take into consideration also about an interaction with other sub model, such as a surface-of-the-earth vegetation model, and a sea chemistry model, an aerosol model. In FY 2002, a numerical simulation about introduction of the high precision substance advection scheme in a general circulation model, and warming and the air composition change interaction using a troposhere chemical bond general circulation model was first done as the start. It has checked that the overestimation tendency of specific humidity in the up troposhere of a model was improved by the high precision advection scheme. Moreover, as a result of conducting the future prediction experiment using a troposhere photochemistry joint general circulation model, it turned out that the concentration of the methane which is main warming origin substances, and sulfuric acid aerosol is greatly influenced by a climate change and change of the amount of steam.

(2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

It aims at developing parameterization for a general circulation model (GCM) estimating the indirect radiation legal force of the influence aerosol affects the optical characteristic of clouds, i.e., troposhere aerosol, into this group. In order to grasp the present condition about evaluation of the indirect radiation legal force of the aerosol in GCM first, literature documentation and examination were performed about CCSR/NIES-GCM and Max Plank Institute-GCM. Moreover, parameterization which evaluates the influence the condensation nucleus (Cloud Condensation Nuclei:CCN) of a cloud particle affects the fine structure of clouds by the detailed cloud physics model (Kuba et al., 2003) developed by the earth frontier research system was developed. In order to operate this parameterization effectively, how to take in the output of SPRINTARS which is an aerosol climate model was examined. As preparation of the detailed cloud physics model loading super-high resolution all ball model development using NICAM (New Icosahediral Atmospheric Model, Satoh, 2003, Tomita, 2002), he is Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Based on the HUCM detailed cloud physics model (Khain et al., 1999) and the Meteorological Agency MRI/NPD-NHM non-statics meso scale model (Saito and Kato, 1999), the 3-dimensional bottle method detailed cloud physics model was newly developed (Inokuchi, 2002).

(3) Chill area model development

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

Improvement or the model taken in newly is developed for many processes of the stratosphere by the climate model (a CCSR/NIES model, existing) of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which consists mainly of a physical process.

About improvement of an air model, improvement of many processes of an inadequate middle atmosphere (the stratosphere and mesosphere) is aimed at by the present model. That is, while change of the radiation from the physical chemistry process and the sun of an ozone layer peculiar to a middle atmosphere influences each other mutually and causes change of a middle atmosphere by invasion of the artificial origin substance to the inside of a middle atmosphere, it clarifies the mechanism which combines with change of the lower layer troposhere and produces a climate change by model experiment. Moreover, the action of internal gravity wave and it clarify influence affect atmospheric circulation by a super-high resolution air model.

This fiscal year has recognized the importance of the role of the air wave motion which governs various process of the medium-rise atmosphere by extending the upper end of a climate model to up mesosphere (80km), and conducting the experiment to which the tuning parameter of horizontal / vertical resolution of a model and a physical process was changed by a dozen case. The resolution attained in the simulation of this fiscal year is a level T106 (1.1-degree lattice) and 200m of perpendicular thickness. Moreover, when it changed and experimented in resolution, it investigated [ the computer resource of an Earth Simulator, and ] how much actual computation time are needed. Moreover, although a possibility which is more than near the tropopause which the perpendicular coordinate system used by the conventional model is a sigma coordinate system, and is distant from surface of the earth that a problem would arise in expression of dynamics process if advanced was pointed out, the calculation accuracy more than the stratosphere improved by changing this into a sigma-p hybrid coordinate system. On the other hand, although investigation about the details of that actual condition and the process used as a cause was advanced about the low temperature and the humectant bias near [ which is a problem peculiar to this model ] the tropopause, that solution was left behind as a subject of the following fiscal year.

3. Ripple effect, development direction, improving point, etc.

Since the new research task in an exploitation stage has just been started, the concrete argument about the future is still too early. However, it is expected that it becomes the base information of society indispensable in order to take suitable countermeasures for it to seem that it is impossible "to prevent" warming and considering the future of a global warming issue the increase in a certain amount of greenhouse gas (about 22 times as many CO as this) is unescapable, therefore to predict a climatic change and environmental change. This project is considered to be the first step towards it.

4. Announcement situation of fruits of work

5. Situation of international joint (cooperation) research

The earth system integrated model which furthers development with this subject reproduces as actually as possible the process which forms earth environment while various factors also including a living thing and a chemical process have an interaction, and importance is attached also to the 3rd report of IPCC as a direction into which the conventional air sea joint general circulation model will develop in the future. The future subject in the research on many process of a climate model and climate mentioned in "the policy decision person-oriented summary <SPM>" of this writing actually specifies the following point. :

- In physical and biogeochemistry-both sides of a climate system, though important, he understands many process in which it does not solve, and feedback, and the feature is clarified.
The model of physical climate and a biogeochemistry system is related more effectively, and combination with behavior of human activities is improved further.

On the other hand, in the joint meeting (emergency ground switch-AGU joint meeting) of the Europe geophysics meeting and U.S. earth physics union in FY 2003, the independent session about "earth system science" was prepared, and active arguments were exchanged. Earth environment can be said to be that a set of the various constituent factors which influence mutually and suit, i.e., the prosperity of the interdisciplinary research regarded as a system, is a global trend.

From such a viewpoint, hereafter, each cooperation and cooperative relation related to an individual item are removed, and describes the situation of general international joint (cooperation) research.

(1) The framework of the international research partnership relevant to a subject

A. The analysis, interpretation, and modeling of earth change (GAIM)

GAIM is one of the core projects of "the international geosphere-biosphere programme (IGBP)" upon which it was decided under the International Council of Scientific Unions meeting (ICSU), and is aimed at synthetic understanding of earth change, and performing model construction from the data obtained in other core projects in IGBP, or a model result. While IGBP will be established in 1986 and the biosphere of an earth scale has the physical environment and the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is the project that process which forms earth environment will be clarified, Besides GAIM, sub thema of these subjects, such as "earth change and a terrestrial ecosystem research program (GCTE)", and "an earth atmospheric chemistry international common research program (IGAC)", "all ball sea flux joint research programs (JGOFS)", has many deep things of relation as a core project. It can be said that GAIM with the role which unifies them is a framework suitable for also telling an overseas researcher the result from this subject widely. GAIM is also aiming at cooperation with the group about modeling of the earth system of "a world climate research program (WCRP)" again. The chairperson's J.-H.Schellnhuber (Britain) is begun to the task force of GAIM, 24 researchers' names are on the list of members from each country, and Ayako Abe (University of Tokyo) and a Michio Kawamiya (earth frontier) have participated in the three-year [ 2003 to ] term from Japan. A binomen is the member of this subject, and this will serve as a big advantage, when sending the result of this subject to the world.

B. All ball carbon projects (GCP)

In a global warming issue, with the help of IGBP, "the international research program (IHDP) about the human society-side of earth environment change" and cooperation of WCRP, and also a biodiversity science international common program (DIVERSTAS), the collaborative project on the theme of a carbon cycle is planned, and GCP is in the present execution plan planning stage in the scientific elucidation of a carbon cycle being called for in. It is the framework of the international research by which WCRP, IHDP, and DIVERSTAS put the chief aim on the understanding of earth environment like IGBP though IGBP had a different viewpoint. It is inquiring, respectively from the standpoint [ concerning / WCRP / meteorology and a climatological standpoint ] of the science concerning [ DIVERSITAS ] biodiversity concerning [ IHDP ] a social science-standpoint.

According to the plan document of GCP, construction of all the ball air sea combined carbon circulation models that treat the carbon cycle of terrestrial and the ocean systematically on a scale of the earth is positioned as important activity of GCP, and is closely related to sub thema "carbon cycle and climatic change joint model development" of this subject. Moreover, about the carbon cycle, the U.S. has started "the carbon cycle science program (Carbon Cycle Science Program)", and two or more fund offer organizations, such as National Science Foundation (NSF), offer funds. The necessity for construction of a combined carbon circulation model is emphasized too also here.

(2) The research partnership situation between Japanese-EU

As the meeting about the research partnership between Japanese-(European Union EU) in FY 2002, "2nd symposium (Second EU-Japan Symposium on Climate Research) of Japan and European Union about climate research" (Belgium Brussels, 13-March 14, 2003) was opened, from the Japan side, including this subject person in charge, there is 23 persons' participation, such as each subject person in charge, climate model development persons, etc. involved in "a man, nature, and an earth symbiosis project", and main climate change model development situations of Japan were introduced. The (European Union EU) side also has 21 persons' participation from main modeling centers, such as a Hadley center (Hadley Centre) in Britain, the Max Planck research institute (MPI) in Germany, French French Weather Bureau / national weather research center (Meteo France/Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques), and the Europe medium-range-forecast center (ECMWF), and each present condition and plan were reported. The meeting became a good opportunity to carry out opinion exchange about the information about the present condition of the climate model development and research in Japan and EU, and a future research partnership relation.

In the 6th term (2002 to 2006) of "a framework plan (Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development) of research and technological development" to have updated in EU every four years now, "Continuous development, earth change, and an ecosystem (Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems)" are in the important item in it, It ranks with "a maintainable energy system" and "maintainable land transportation", the bottom of it is tackled in "earth change and an ecosystem", and it is a content with many places corresponding to symbiosis project Japan model missions (from understanding, detection, mitigration, adaptation, preserving of ecosystem, etc. to composition).

In particular, in the sub thema (1) carbon-cycle model of this subject, and a carbon cycle and a climatic change joint model, since model development about the process in connection with an ecosystem is furthered, there will be possibility of the close research partnership about EU and a common object from now on. However, with this subject, since research from a large viewpoint as for which the EU side also includes the second and third task force-viewpoints, such as impact evaluation, relief measures, etc., such as brittleness, adaptation, etc. of an ecosystem, from a first task force-viewpoint as used in the field of IPCC to treating the ecosystem as part of climate model development is advanced, it is necessary to advance cooperation with careful attention to this point.

(3) A Japan-U.S. research partnership situation

The positive position to which importance was attached to research of climatic changes, such as warming prediction -- it takes out the common chairperson of the 1st task force which takes charge of scientific evaluation in the new system of the 4th IPCC evaluation report materialized first in FY 2002, and takes charge also of the technical support room (TSU) of the first task force although the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has suspended the U.S. -- is shown. It is under proposal towards holding the 11th Japan-U.S. change research workshop based on a Japan-U.S. technology agreement and the Japan-U.S. government enforcement agreement of the earth change research / prediction field by making an earth frontier research system into a core period by the Japan side in Japan in FY 2003 based on this new situation. Although carried out on the theme of "climate and water" last time at the end of the FY 2001, since the fruits of work towards the 4th evaluation report are called for now next time, it is thought required to debate about the cooperative relation between the both countries to it. It is necessary also about this subject to tackle positively about the Japan American Lumber Conference power.