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1 Outline

1. Main point of research

The purposes of this research are developing the integrated model of the earth environment (earth system) which can simulate changing and going in one, and performing global warming prediction which included feedback of a carbon cycle using it, composition of change of the whole earth environment, i.e., climate, and the atmosphere and the ocean and the ecosystem of land and sea affecting it mutually.

In old global warming prediction, about the future of the carbon-dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere which caused warming, using the model simplified based on CO2 release scenario by human activities, the absorbed amount to the ocean and a terrestrial ecosystem (vegetation and soil) was estimated, future prediction of air CO2 concentration was performed first, the result was introduced into the climate model and the simulation of warming and a climatic change has been performed. However, it cannot be said that this is enough. Although CO2 increase causes warming and a climatic change, it is because the feedback effect was not conversely adopted although a climatic change affects CO2 in the atmosphere concentration. Disassembly of a soil organic matter progresses by warming, the concentration of CO2 or methane (CH4) increases into the atmosphere, namely, since positive feedback may act, it is dangerous that this is disregarded.

You have to predict by the model which included the carbon cycle process in the climate model, and adopted the feedback effect. Moreover, although it is thought that warming and a climatic change cause change of an ecosystem, it also influences CO2 and the concentration of CH4. Furthermore, the troposhere ozone which is another greenhouse gas is also influenced of warming and a climatic change. Then, it is necessary to adopt the process of the carbon cycle and atmospheric composition change over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem to a climate model, and to conduct the warming prediction experiments including structure) and those feedbacks for (carbon cycle, atmospheric composition, and a climate integrated model.

2. Research outline

It is based on it using the existing CCSR/NIES model developed by the University of Tokyo climate center and National Institute for Environmental Studies as a "physical climate model" of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which mainly treats physical condition, The "earth system integrated model" which made the 3rd year for the partial integrated model which adopted to each many process currently studied in each area of investigation of an earth frontier research system, such as chemical composition change of the atmosphere and the ocean and substance exchange of a terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, to the standard, and combined the whole on it is completed within a research period. All the ball carbon cycle models over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem will be made from the process by three - 4th, and the warming prediction experiment which included the feedback effect of warming and a carbon cycle using the model which combined it and a climate model will be conducted. About warming and the interaction of atmospheric composition or a terrestrial ecosystem, since there are still more processes of not solving, about the warming itself, by the field observation and process research which are performed on the basis of other subjects (the research on parameterization for terrestrial ecosystem model creation, advancement of parameterization of many physics process (the atmosphere and the sea field)) of a symbiosis project, it asks for a required parameter, process research required for the improvement in accuracy is conversely requested from the result of a model, and improvement

3. Research yearly plan

FY 2002 : Maintenance of the individual model towards research strategy planning of the whole and a sub subject, and partial integrated model production with each sub subject.
FY 2003 : It is development of a partial integrated model for every sub subject.
FY 2004 : In a sub subject, a partial integrated model is completed respectively. Numerical simulation start on this stage and in connection with global warming. It applies to the following year (2005) and an experiment is ended, and a result is summarized so that it may be enough for the 4th IPCC report as much as possible.
FY 2005 : Development of the "earth systems model" which ended the experiment by a partial integrated model and unified the whole in parallel simultaneously is started.
FY 2006 : Earth systems model completion. Trial of all earth environment change prediction in accordance with warming using it.

4. Research program in FY 2003

These each is connected to a physical climate model (the existing thing developed by the model centering on the "physical" process of the atmosphere, the ocean, and land and CCSR/NIES is used), continuing and furthering [ pull, ] development (atmospheric composition, terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, etc.) of an individual model currently performed in each area of investigation of a its present location ball frontier research system, and the work which makes a "partial integrated model" is started.

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and climatic change joint model development

The work which combines a sea carbon cycle model and a terrestrial carbon cycle model with the air sea joint climate model MIROC will be started during FY 2003. About the sea component, combination with an ecosystem model with four simple ingredients and an oceanic circulation model is completed mostly. About a terrestrial component, inclusion to the climate model of Sim-CYCLE under development is started by an earth frontier research system at the beginning of FY 2003. Integration of the land process model MATSIRO and Sim-CYCLE is also performed. Moreover, in order to be anxious about vegetation distribution changing with warming sharply about a subarctic forest, the vegetation dynamic model which specialized in the subarctic forest towards Sim-CYCLE extension is developed. Before including in MIROC, it is necessary to fully perform examination of the performance in each component model simple substance.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth frontier research system, Takehisa Oikawa)

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

(1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model

The troposhere chemistry model CHASER developed in the University of Tokyo climate center is extended, a stratosphere chemical reaction is incorporated, and high resolution time slice simulation is performed. However, CHASER needs to examine in what resolution it experiments concretely, actually working a model on an Earth Simulator from now on, in order to require a lot of computer resources including very many variables. Since the standpoint of reappearance of circulating space important for a chemical process is also needed for the determination of resolution, it gropes for the resolution which balance was able to take most united with the physical climate core model improvement subgroup. Moreover, the improvement of an advection current scheme is also tackled in parallel to these activities.

(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth frontier research system, Masaaki Takahashi)
(2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation
Towards a handling improvement of the aerosol in GCM, if substances differ, consideration of the effect which changes the ease of forming of a cloud particle a lot will be considered. The model result of resolution higher than GCM is also used. It cooperates also with other subjects (advancement of parameterization of many physics process (the atmosphere and the sea field)) of a symbiosis project, or a model integration domain.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth frontier research system, Masaaki Takahashi)

(3) Chill area model development

Verification through observational data or a paleoclimate reappearance experiment is performed, and highly precise-ization of the ice sheet model developed in the University of Tokyo climate center and the sea ice model introduced into MIROC is performed. Moreover, observation research of other subjects (advancement of parameterization of many physics process (the atmosphere and the sea field)) of a symbiosis project stays in touch, and the prospective improvement of a sea ice model is considered.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth frontier research system, Ayako Abe)

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

In order to reproduce the atmospheric chemistry process in the stratosphere actually, removal of the low temperature and the excess of steam in the lower stratosphere and the reappearance of QBO in the low latitude stratosphere can call it a necessary condition. It gropes for the resolution of a model which balance which is equal to actual use also from the field of calculation cost was able to take, fulfilling such conditions. In formation of stratosphere atmospheric circulation, the internal gravity wave has played the important role, and it analyzes about both the ingredient explicitly expressed by a model, and the ingredient by which a parameter rise is carried out. It is expectable that the work which updates the perpendicular coordinate system of a model from the conventional sigma coordinate system to a sigma-P hybrid coordinate system is also to be done in parallel, and its reproducibility of circulation near the tropopause improves.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth frontier research system, Emori Seita)

5. Enforcement organization in FY 2003

Japan Marine Science and Technology Center is used as a supervisor research implementation organization, and a research representative is made into Taro Matsuno (earth frontier research system system length). Research and development is done by preparing the next research sub thema.

(1) A carbon cycle, a carbon cycle, and climatic change joint model development

Representative: Oikawa Takehisa
    (1) terrestrial carbon cycle model
    A. Ito , K. Tanaka , I. Ichii

    (2) Marine organism geochemical model
    Y. Yamanaka , M. kishi , M. Aida , C. Yoshikawa , M. Kawamiya

    (3) terrestrial ecosystem change model
    T. Kohyama, H. Sato

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

Representative: M. Takahashi
    (1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model
    M. takigawa, S. Watanabe, T. Nagashima, K. Sudo, T. Takemura

    (2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation
    N. Kuba, T. Suzuki, T. Nozawa, Y. Tsushima, K. Suzuki, T. Nakajima

(3) Chill area model

Representative: A. Abe
    T. Segawa, R. Ohgaito

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

Representative:S. Emori
    T Suzuki, T Suzuki, K. Takata M. Kimoto, T. Matsuno , H. Hasumi, S. Watanabe

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