2 Outline of Results

1. Generalization

As described also in the report in FY 2002, the integrated model of an earth environment system is the place where the play to be turned to development for this very 2 or 3 years started globally. Although the first full-scale symposium about an earth system model was opened at the Max Planck research institute in Hamburg under the background in September, 2003, in size, the timely hit through which it does not pass has reported the plan and present condition of this project there. Although the Japanese-English workshop was too opened on the theme of earth system modeling in Cambridge University in October, this project announced as a thing representing the Japan side also there. Although this project had not yet achieved concrete results in these, the special researcher of all the sides covering the physical chemistry and ecology of an earth environment system was arranged with sufficient balance, and for just developing an integrated model, it is shown that it is a suitable team and it could have confidence also as itself.

Although the framework (chapter vertical) of the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC)" 4th report (completion being scheduled for 2007) which is the conclusion of global warming prediction was determined in September, 2003 - November, The treatment of the warming prediction by the integrated model of a there is a trial-thing and positioning which can be taken, and the center of "warming and climatic change prediction" still depends it on a former type (feedback of a carbon cycle and chemical composition change is not considered) climate system model. although this is a thing reflecting the maturity index of the integrated model in the whole world, is seen objective and it is an appropriate place so, you have to do your best in development of the high integrated model of reliability increasingly -- it is the thought to which things were told.

When the concrete progress situation of this project was seen, it was also completed once that the sea carbon cycle model begun from the second half of FY 2002 is done briefly, combines it with the existing terrestrial carbon cycle model SimCYCLE, and considers it as all ball carbon cycle models. Although a program physical check still must be carried out, a mistake must be made what is not and it must go, it can be said that it passed through the first gateway for conducting the warming experiment combined with the carbon cycle by the spring of 2005. This is a big result. Another important result is having determined the basic design of all the ball vegetation dynamic models that simulate change of the terrestrial vegetation accompanying a climatic change. It says that it will simulate competition between different vegetation with an individual base unlike the model of the same kind developed by some researchers (research consortium) in the world until now, and is based on the new way of thinking suitable for utilizing the computer resource of an Earth Simulator. The "lag" of change of the vegetation to environmental change is calculated directly (not being assumption) by this, and is expected to become what has more high reliability.

In addition, stratosphere chemistry was taken in by the atmospheric-chemistry model, and the favorable process was looked at by totalities, such as preliminaries for introduce detailed cloud physics process into the super-high resolution global non-statics air model NICAM, and a preliminary experiment by an ice sheet dynamics model, for the world's first trial of the Earth Simulator no one but of perform parameter estimation in a stratosphere based on numerical simulation about the treatment of the internal gravity wave which becomes material by the work and the physical-climate core model which gather calculation efficiency simultaneously, and precision evaluation of clouds and the aerosol cost performance.

2. Every sub thema, outline for every individual item

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and a climatic change joint model

1 terrestrial carbon cycle model

It is the target of this subgroup to include in the earth system integrated model which builds the model which simulates the carbon cycle by a terrestrial ecosystem, and is built with this subject when building the earth environment change forecasting model by artificial greenhouse gas discharge, and to perform warming prediction. In FY 2003, three points of examination A of the model extension for off-line evaluation of (1) Sim-CYCLE, the inclusion to AGCM of (2) terrestrial model, and both (3) integrated models comparison project participation were performed.

2 Construction of the vegetation zone moving projection model in a terrestrial carbon cycle model

Design of ball vegetation models (DGVM, Dynamic Global Vegetation Model) dynamic [ all ] and code creation were advanced. Although the fundamental design of this model combined the vegetation dynamic state component of LPJ-DGVM with terrestrial carbon cycle model Sim-CYCLE, it incorporated the space structure of a stand clearly further, and performed extension of treating an arbor with an individual base. The process of regeneration of a forest gap and the competing process between trees individuals are exactly expressed by these extension, and it is expected that the carbon balance accompanying a vegetation dynamic state, the speed of the vegetation distribution change accompanying a climate change, etc. can be predicted more correctly than any DGVM built so far. By this time, development of the program code which performs calculation in one stand is completed mostly, and the last check of a code is performed. From now on, the simulation result in all ball grids is due to be obtained even during FY 2004 through process, such as vectorization, parallelization, parameter estimation, and adjustment.

3 Marine organism geochemical model

As a preceding paragraph story of carbon cycle process inclusion to an air sea joint model, the preliminary warming experiment was conducted using the carbon cycle model included in the sea simple substance model. That is, it was investigated how sea carbon-dioxide absorbed amounts when the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increase gradually about the case where marine environment changes with warming, and the case where that is not right, using the wind stress and sea skin temperature which were obtained as a result of the carbon-dioxide gradual increase experiment conducted in the past using the air sea joint model as driving force of an oceanographic model would differ among both cases. Consequently, the result that the influence which the ocean circulation change by warming has on a carbon-dioxide absorbed amount was small was obtained. The model adopted in this project finished with the warming experiment here confirming the past experimental findings, although description of a hydrographic table layer ecosystem was detailed rather than what is adopted by the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Although this very thing is not a gay result, it can be said that it has checked that our model showed the behavior which will seemingly be reasonable as a preceding paragraph story combined with a terrestrial carbon cycle. This is received, a carbon cycle model transplant to an air sea joint model is also started, and it is in the stage which the prototype completed now. From now on, tuning of a model parameter, maintenance of a code, and enough spins up are performed, and it will prepare for the participation to both the carbon cycle-climate joint models comparison project (C4MIP), as a result the contribution to the 4th IPCC report.

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

1 Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

In warming and atmospheric composition change interaction sub model, it is the present subject to enable on-line calculation of aerosol and chemistry using all the ball chemistry models CHASER and the aerosol model SPRINTARS which set it as the main purposes to express and predict an interaction with warming of atmospheric chemistry process (ozone distribution etc.) or aerosol, and the ocean and terrestrial vegetation change, and used CCSR/NIES AGCM as the foundation. In the current fiscal year, the CHASER model was accelerated bearing in mind the long-term experiment at the time of including this sub model in an integrated model, and it evaluated on the Earth Simulator about the execution performance. Large calculation cost reduction was realized by this high speed work about the chemical process. Furthermore, the future prediction experiment of the troposhere chemistry place which took warming into consideration as preceding paragraph story-research for warming and atmospheric chemistry interaction prediction was conducted. Especially this fiscal year analyzed preponderantly change of the stratosphere / substance exchange between the troposhere at the time of warming about this prediction experiment, and obtained the prediction result of the ozone inflow from the stratosphere to the troposhere increasing by change of the atmospheric circulation place by warming. Moreover, combination of CHASER and a SPRINTARS car model was started in the second half of this fiscal year. About verification of a transport process currently performed from the last fiscal year, especially this fiscal year calculated age distribution of air as evaluation of transportation in the stratosphere, and transportation in the stratosphere, and compared with the observed value in the lower stratosphere. Although the value near an observation point estimate was acquired in the equatorial region in this calculation, it turned out in inside and high latitude that it is in the tendency which underestimates the average age of air.

2 A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

This group's subject is developing parameterization for a general circulation model (GCM) estimating the indirect radiation legal force of the influence aerosol affects the optical characteristic of clouds, i.e., troposhere aerosol. parameterization which evaluates the influence the condensation nucleus (Cloud Condensation Nuclei:CCN) of a cloud particle affects the fine structure of clouds by an earth frontier research system is developed. This parameterization, parameterization of Abdul-Razzak et al. (1998), etc. were taken into CCSR/NIES AGCM with SPRINTARS which is an aerosol climate model, and all ball distribution of the optical thickness of clouds or a cloud particle effective radius was calculated, and it inquired by performing comparison with satellite observational data. Furthermore, in order to make it the effective thing as parameterization for GCM, NICAM (New Icosahediral Atmospheric Model, Satoh, 2003, Tomita, 2002) is used, and the detailed cloud physics model loading super-high resolution all ball model is developed. Furthermore, development of the cloud resolving domain model which carries the bottle method detailed cloud physics model is also performed using cloud resolving domain model CReSS (Tsuboki and Sakakibara, 2002).

(3) Chill area model development

In order to investigate the influence of the response characteristic and sea level on the ice sheet to warming, the ice sheet model was developed so that reality might often be expressed, and the adaptability to Greenland and the South Pole was investigated (Saito and Abe-Ouchi, 2004). Furthermore, dissolution of the ice sheet equivalent to about 3m of sea levels taking place, if the climate of the Greenland area carries out warming 3 to 4 times, and climate carrying out warming of the South Pole area 7 to 8 times or more, and bringing about the sea level rise by dissolution of an ice sheet at last was shown. On the other hand, in order to investigate about the grade of prediction of warming, the adjustment and the sensitivity experiment of an air sea sea ice joint model (resolution is a degree, 200km of atmospheres, and about 100km of oceans in the middle) which do not have artificial flux regulation using an Earth Simulator were conducted. As a result of investigating the response characteristic over the reproducibility and warming of the climate of high latitude with high warming sensitivity, or sea ice [ all balls / especially ], even if greenhouse gas stabilizes the grade of warming of the Greenland ice sheet circumference at the end time of the 21st century, the grade which affects a sea level intentionally is reached. The amount of increases in the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere assumed that it was an annual rate of 1%, and prediction until after [ which reaches 4 times ] 140 years was performed. Compared with all balls, the increase in temperature is large in polar, especially the Northern Hemisphere, and the Greenland ice sheet serves as a grade which influences a sea level intentionally. A result which the increase in precipitation exceeds a little from the effect of the increase in temperature in the South Pole ice sheet was brought. From now on, the same experiment will be conducted by the version from which the indefinite parameter of a model and sensitivity differ. The more detailed analysis of polar, such as tens of year change and width of uncertainty, is required. Furthermore, the program alteration for enabling calculation of air - ice sheet combination (partial integrated model) which synchronized is recommended, and the present adjustment is continued.

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

Improvement or the model taken in newly is developed for many processes of the stratosphere by the climate model (a CCSR/NIES model, existing) of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which consists mainly of a physical process.

About improvement of an air model, improvement of many processes of an inadequate middle atmosphere (the stratosphere and mesosphere) is aimed at by the present model. That is, while change of the radiation from the physical chemistry process and the sun of an ozone layer peculiar to a middle atmosphere influences each other mutually and causes change of a middle atmosphere by invasion of the artificial origin substance to the inside of a middle atmosphere, it clarifies the mechanism which combines with change of the lower layer troposhere and produces a climate change by model experiment. Moreover, the action of internal gravity wave and it clarify influence affect atmospheric circulation by a super-high resolution air model.

This fiscal year performed the introduction and the test of a radiation code which were newly developed by CCSR while comparing the calculation result of the model of other organizations with the result of our model for improvement in the reproducibility near [ important for substance exchange of the troposhere and the stratosphere ] the tropopause. Consequently, the remarkable low-temperature bias seen near the tropopause of the general circulation model of CCSR/NIES has been improved epoch-makingly. Moreover, the direct resolving simulation of the air internal gravity wave which plays an important role in middle atmosphere general circulation was performed, and it succeeded in acquiring all ball distribution of the amplitude of a gravity wave, or a propagation direction in the lower stratosphere for the first time in the world. The resolution attained in the simulation of this fiscal year is a level T213 (0.55-degree lattice) and 300m of perpendicular thickness. Moreover, in experimenting in high resolution more, the calculation code of a general circulation model was improved so that the automatic [ in a node ] parallel function of an Earth Simulator might be used.

3. Ripple effect, development direction, improving point, etc.

(1) Although this project models the whole earth environment as one system, it begins the model of the subsystem which did not make the model of all systems suddenly but has so far been made, i.e., the model of a physical climate system, combines an atmospheric chemistry model, a terrestrial carbon cycle model, etc., and tries to make all earth environment systems. Although each subsystem model is planned to utilize the existing thing as much as possible in that case, when the existing thing comes out enough and there is not necessarily, a required improvement is made, and the existing thing may not use depending on the case, but may newly be made. [ no ] The stratosphere and a mesosphere may be treated in detail by a physical climate model as a former example, having done a numerical simulation about parameterization of an internal gravity wave for the reason, and having aimed at improvement and a centering on troposhere chemistry atmospheric chemistry model may be extended even to the stratosphere, and many required processes may be introduced there (unfinished). All ball vegetation conductor models are developing the unprecedented new model which is the latter and treats competition between seeds directly with an individual base. Since it is a model new as itself or they are better (the application range is wide) models even if it includes none of these sub system models in an integrated model, they are worthy as itself and contribute to research of each field.

(2) This project is in the capacity which leads a totality in respect of "integration disposition" in a symbiosis project and Japanese model missions, and Japan Marine Science and Technology Center which is an agency specializing in development is an earth environment science-related maximum scale research-and-development agency. Then, in order to realize "contribution to the 4th IPCC account" which is the appointment of Japanese model missions as a growth direction of this project,These project persons concerned take the lead and as many Japanese researchers as possible can take part in many activities of WGI for the IPCC report generation which will get into stride from now on,Or I want to also perform activities of holding domestic each group's (subjects 1-4) study group and liaison committee in implementation of a warming prediction experiment.

4. Announcement situation of reports

<Oral announcement>

terrestrial carbon cycle model

Construction of the vegetation zone moving projection model in a terrestrial carbon cycle model

Marine organism geochemical model

Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

Climate physics core model improvement

<Paper announcement>

terrestrial carbon cycle model

Marine organism geochemical model

Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

Chill area model development

5. Situation of international joint (cooperation) research

(1) It is the framework of the deep international cooperation of relation to this subject.

A. The trend of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) towards the 4th evaluation report (AR4)

And it was the 21st time general meeting of IPCC held in Vienna in November, Heisei 15, by the first-task force [ time / 9th ] (WGI) meeting, the title of WGI became "The Scientific Basis" to "The Physical Science Basis" of the 3rd evaluation report (TAR), and considered it as the form which stipulated the difference from the social science (Social Science) of other task forces etc. On top of that, the chapter vertical of AR4 was once decided through tail part-correction of discussion (since writer organization is not decided yet unlike TAR, pliability is to be given at future). The contents have been taken into consideration reflecting the point pointed out as a future subject in TAR.

As a chapter directly related to this subject, it is chapter 7 of the whole of the inside which has Chapter 11 on the whole, and the content is as follows .

Chapter 7 Combination of Change in Climate System and Biochemistry (Coupling Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry)

Since it was greatly concerned also with Chapter 6 (geologic climate), the question whether it can finish treating only in Chapter 1 and how it was was also taken out, but being aimed at the large sphere of a time factor by these contents although [ the proposition representation of S.Solomon (U.S.) of WGI ] the main subject of this chapter is a carbon cycle, and circulation of carbon dioxide were recognized by the chapter verticals above after all.

B. The situation of the earth area and a biosphere international joint research plan (IGBP)

IGBP established in 1986 is the project that process which forms earth environment will be clarified and it will go, while the biosphere of an earth scale has the physical environment and the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean. IGBP is a project group which crawls rather than an independent project and consists of core projects of shoes, and "an earth atmospheric chemistry international joint research plan (IGAC)", "integrated research (IMBER) of marine organism geochemistry and a marine ecosystem", "an earth terrestrial integrated research program (GLP)", etc. occur as an example of a core project. The name of a core project also shows well that IGBP(s) are the 2nd subject of symbiosis, and the deep international research program of relation.

Many of core projects which existed from the beginning 15 years or more after from inauguration of IGBP are ending now. The content of research which they have dealt with will be succeeded by the new core project in a more expansive form. It could be said that the present IGBP finishes the 1st term of the development, and is in the shift term to the 2nd term. What especially IGBP that enters at the 2nd term attaches importance to is "a contribution to society", and "integration." About the former, while IGBP enters at the 2nd term and the research action plan of each core project has been coming out fully, also in any, the importance of using reports in the form where it high-power to construction of the society which harmonized with environment is preached. It is that the core project treating the boundary between "subsystems" called the atmosphere, the ocean, and land in characteristic one about the latter "integration" itself was newly added. That is, it is two, "the sea surface-few-stories air research (International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea)" treating the boundary of the ocean and the atmosphere, and "the terrestrial ecosystem-air integrated research (iLEAPS)" treating the boundary of land and the atmosphere. In addition, "the terrestrial sea interaction research program (LOICZ) in the coast" treating the boundary of land and the ocean shifts to the 2nd term, inheriting the activity from the 1st term. It is in the stage which finished summarizing the research-activities plan for it now. These core projects treating the boundary between subsystems will promote research of a form which crosses and unifies the existing learning field some. And "the changes research program (PAGES) of paleoenvironment" and "the analysis, integration, and modeling (AIMES) of an earth system" (it is name change from GAIM (<the analysis, interpretation, and modeling> of earth change)) have the role which unifies the whole core project of IGBP.

The chairperson's C.Prentice (Britain) is begun to the task force of AIMES, 24 researchers' names are on the list of members from each country, and Ayako Abe (an earth frontier / University of Tokyo) and a Kawamiya Michio (earth frontier) have participated in the three-year [ 2003 to ] term from Japan. A binomen is the member of this subject, and this will serve as a big advantage, when sending the result of this subject to the world. It is actually one in the series which IGBP summarized the result of the 1st term and published ("Global Change and the Earth System.). A It is introduced comparatively greatly as Planet Under Pressure" and a project with the 2nd subject of symbiosis and an Earth Simulator "ambitious" in Springer Verlag Š§ and 2004 (280 -281 clause). Moreover, they are due for the joint session and workshop of the task force of AIMES and "the working group (WGCM) about climate modeling" of "a world climate research program (WCRP)" to make the JAMSTEC Yokohama research institute the hall, and to be held sponsored by an earth frontier in October, 2004.

(2) The U.S. and/, or the research partnership situation between EU

The first international "symbiosis" workshop (The First International "KYOSEI" Workshop),It is U.S. Hawaii state Honolulu on 25-February 27, Heisei 16, and is Sumi Akimasa (University of Tokyo CCSR),Under Maruyama Kouki (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), Matsuno Taroh (earth frontier), and convene of Aoki Takashi (Meteorological Research Institute),"The workshop about the next-generation climate model to the 6th tip high-performance-computation function (The 6-th InternationalWS on the Next Generation Climate model for)It annexed with Advanced High Performance Computing Facilities", and was held.

• The general circulation model of high resolution,
  An oceanic circulation model, a climate model
  
  
• Super parameterization
  Multi-model technique
  
  
• Clouds, aerosol, a carbon cycle, etc.,
  Modeling of the process in a climate system
  
  
• Variable analysis in a model and nature
  

About this subject, the report was made from Kawamiya (earth frontier). The plenary session became an opportunity to exchange a mutual result mutually about various problems of the climate model involving the researcher of the advanced-research organization of the U.S. and Europe, and global warming prediction.

Moreover, in the inside of this fiscal year, to others, the result of this subject was introduced in international meetings, such as an IUGG general meeting (June 30, 2003 to July 11, Sapporo), an international conference (September [ of the same year ] 15 to 19 days, Hamburg) on earth system modeling, and a Japanese-English workshop (October [ of the same year ] 1 to three days, Cambridge) about earth system modeling.

Although there were a little few opportunities for this fiscal year to interchange reports, and to suit together since the meeting about that the Japan-U.S. climate change research workshop planned at the beginning was not held and the research partnership between Japanese-EU is scheduled for FY 2004, and to discuss research partnership organization, The international research meeting which will also include results of a symbiosis project, such as a result fiscal of this subject, and a result report of Japan which contributes to IPCC in addition to this in October following each meeting and joint meeting of above-mentioned IGBP/AIMES and WCRP/WGCM is planned in FY 2004 when it will be expected that a full-scale result will come out.