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1 Outline

1. Main point of research

The purposes of this research are developing the integrated model of the earth environment (earth system) which can simulate changing and going in one, and performing global warming prediction which included feedback of a carbon cycle using it, composition of change of the whole earth environment, i.e., climate, and the atmosphere and the ocean and the ecosystem of land and sea affecting it mutually.

In old global warming prediction, about the future of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere which caused warming, using the model simplified based on CO2 release scenario by human activities, the absorbed amount to the ocean and a terrestrial ecosystem (vegetation and soil) was estimated, future prediction of air CO2 concentration was performed first, the result was introduced into the climate model and the simulation of warming and a climatic change has been performed. However, it cannot be said that this is enough. Although CO2 increase causes warming and a climatic change, it is because the feedback effect was not conversely adopted although a climatic change affects CO2 in the atmosphere concentration. Disassembly of a soil organic matter progresses by warming, the concentration of CO2 or methane (CH4) increases into the atmosphere, namely, since positive feedback may act, it is dangerous that this is disregarded.

You have to predict by the model which included the carbon cycle process in the climate model, and adopted the feedback effect. Moreover, although it is thought that warming and a climatic change cause change of an ecosystem, it also influences CO2 and the concentration of CH4. Furthermore, the troposhere ozone which is another greenhouse gas is also influenced of warming and a climatic change. Then, it is necessary to adopt the process of the carbon cycle and atmospheric composition change over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem to a climate model, and to conduct the warming prediction experiments including structure) and those feedbacks for (carbon cycle, atmospheric composition, and a climate integrated model.

2. Research outline

Existing CCSR/NIES developed by the University of Tokyo climate center and National Institute for Environmental Studies as a "physical climate model" of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which mainly treats physical condition It is based on it using a model, The "earth system integrated model" which made the 3rd year for the partial integrated model which adopted to each many process currently studied by each program of an earth environment frontier research center, such as chemical composition change of the atmosphere and the ocean and substance exchange of a terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, to the standard, and combined the whole on it is completed within a research period. All the ball carbon cycle models over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem will be made from the process by three - 4th, and the warming prediction experiment which included the feedback effect of warming and a carbon cycle using the model which combined it and a climate model will be conducted. About warming and the interaction of atmospheric composition or a terrestrial ecosystem, since there are still more processes of not solving, about the warming itself, they are other subjects (research on parameterization for terrestrial ecosystem model creation) of a symbiosis project. Advancement of parameterization of many physics process (the atmosphere and the sea field) By the field observation and process research which are performed on a basis, it asks for a required parameter, process research required for the improvement in accuracy is conversely requested from the result of a model, and improvement in accuracy of a model is aimed at.

3. Research yearly plan

FY 2002 Maintenance of the individual model towards research strategy planning of the whole and a sub subject, and partial integrated model production with each sub subject.
FY 2003 It is development of a partial integrated model for every sub subject.
FY 2004 A partial integrated model is completed in each sub subject. Numerical simulation start on this stage and in connection with global warming. It applies to the following year (2005) and an experiment is ended, and a result is summarized so that it may be enough for the 4th IPCC report as much as possible.
FY 2005 Development of the "earth systems model" which ended the experiment by a partial integrated model and unified the whole in parallel simultaneously is started.
FY 2006 Earth systems model completion. Trial of all earth environment change prediction in accordance with warming using it.

4. Research program in FY 2004

These each is connected to a physical climate model (the existing thing developed by the model centering on the "physical" process of the atmosphere, the ocean, and land and CCSR/NIES is used), furthering succeedingly development (atmospheric composition, terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, etc.) of an individual model currently performed by each research program of a its present location ball environmental frontier research center, and the work which makes a "partial integrated model" is continued.

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and climatic change joint model development

About the carbon cycle - climate joint model which the prototype has already completed, adjustment of details is finished by the end of the 14th half year of FY 2004. There are readjustment of biological season parameterization which is needed as an example of details adjustment since the time scales of driving force differ by the terrestrial ecosystem component in a simple substance terrestrial ecosystem model and an integrated model, a spin up of a land-and-sea carbon cycle component, etc. Then, the model experiment which put paper writing into the view is started.
Paper writing is begun in the second half of FY 2004. It aims at the paper contribution in FY 2004. Development is furthered also about the dynamic vegetation model of an individual base, an experiment on all ball scales will be conducted during FY 2004, and parameter tuning will be tackled.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth environment frontier research center, Takehisa Oikawa)

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

(1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model
Various aerosol process is introduced into chemistry and the climate model CHASER (it develops on the University of Tokyo climate center and an earth environment frontier), and the model which can simultaneous evaluate the warming influence of ozone methane aerosol change (interaction) is built. As an aerosol process, it sets on the basis of a SPRINTARS model (the University of Tokyo climate center / Kyushu University Applied mechanics research institute ), and relation with chemistry combines with the chemical reaction process of CHASER about a strong sulphate or organic carbon aerosol. Moreover, after aerosol introduction, CHASER is transplanted to the integrated model under development in this project. Furthermore, with the improvement of an advection current and physical process each scheme, the stratosphere chemistry (halogen and PSCs reaction) introduction to CHASER is started.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth environment frontier research center, Masaaki Takahashi)
(2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation
Cloud particle number density parameterization and the existing cloud particle number density parameterization which were developed by the detailed cloud physics model are taken in to GCM, and improvement is tried from comparison with satellite observational data. How to estimate the upward flow speed and liquid water content in clouds from a grid point value is examined. In order to bury a scale gap, a fine physics model is introduced into a non-statics domain model (NHM) and a non-statics all ball model (NICAM), and basic data required for parameterization development of GCM is obtained.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth environment frontier research center, Masaaki Takahashi)

(3) Cryospheric model development

In the last fiscal year, verification through observational data or a paleoclimate reappearance experiment is performed, and it is the University of Tokyo climate center. Highly-precise-izing of the developed ice sheet model and the sea ice model introduced into MIROC It has carried out. It is doing a numerical simulation which combined these air sea sea ice joint general circulation models and ice sheet models in the current fiscal year, and examination is begun for what kind of reaction the chill areas, such as an ice sheet and sea ice, receive in global warming in the South Pole or Greenland. CO2 When a greenhouse gas level is stable even by about 4 times, it is due to integrate with how climate and an ice sheet answer over a long period of time for hundreds years, and to experiment in it.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth environment frontier research center, Ayako Abe)

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

To the middle, the transplant of the troposhere chemistry model to an integrated model is due to be completed in FY 2004. The integrated model upper bed after a transplant end is extended to the stratosphere upper part, tuning is also performed, and it prepares for stratosphere chemical process introduction.
In order to reproduce the atmospheric chemistry process in the stratosphere actually, removal of the low-temperature bias in the lower stratosphere and the reappearance of QBO in the low latitude stratosphere can call it a necessary condition. Although that it is likely that it can respond by updating work of a radiation calculation subroutine about removal of the low temperature of low latitude, it is necessary to grope for the resolution of a model which balance which is equal to actual use also from the field of calculation cost was able to take, taking substance exchange of the stratosphere and the troposhere etc. into consideration. QBO etc. has played the role with an important internal gravity wave in formation of stratosphere atmospheric circulation, and it analyzes following the last fiscal year about both the ingredient explicitly expressed by a high resolution air model, and the ingredient by which a parameter rise is carried out, and uses for improvement of gravity wave parameterization introduced into the integrated model.
(Operating assignment person in charge: An earth environment frontier research center, Seita Emori)

5. Enforcement organization in FY 2004

An independent administrative agency marine research development mechanism is used as a supervisor research implementation organization, and a research representative is made into Taro Matsuno (earth environment frontier research center center length). Research and development is done by preparing the following research sub theme.

(1) A carbon cycle, a carbon cycle, and climatic change joint model development

Representative: Oikawa Takehisa
    (1) terrestrial carbon cycle model
    Akihiko Ito, Katsunori Tanakai, Tomomichi Kato

    (2) Oceanic carbon cycle model
    Yasuhiro Yamanakao, Michiro Kishi, Maki Aita, Chisato Yoshikawa , Michio Kawamiya

    (3) Dynamic vegetation model
    Takashi Kohyama, Hisashi Sato

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

Representative: Masaaki Takahashi
    (1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model
    Masayuki Takigawa, Shingo Watanabe, Tatsuya Nagashima, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura

    (2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation
    Naomi Kuba, Tsuneaki Suzuki, Tooru Nozawa, Yoko Tsushima,
    Kentaro Suzuki,Teruyuki Namazima, Hirofumi Tomita

(3) Cryospheric model development

Representative: Ayako Abe
    Rumu Ohgaito, Tomonori Segawa

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

Representative: Seita Emori
    Tsuneaki Suzuki, Tatsuo Suzuki, KumikoTakada,
    Masahide Kimoto, Hiroyasu Hasumi,Taroh Matsuno,
    Shingo Watanabe

6. Research steering committee, research liaison conference

<Research steering committee>

(1) Duty

A research program and a report of a research progress situation and a research result are performed from a research implementation member, in response, an external committee performs evaluation and advice at any time about the whole research execution plan and a yearly plan, and a progress situation is checked, while considering the research program of the fiscal year concerned and carrying out suitable advice especially.

(2) A committee's composition

<These project persons concerned, an internal committee>
    Taroh Matsuno (earth environment frontier research center center length, symbiosis 2 representation)
    Hiroki Kondo (an earth environment frontier research center and symbiosis 2 representation assistance)
    Ayako Abe (an earth environment frontier research center / University of Tokyo CCSR)
    Seita Emori (an earth environment frontier research center / National Institute for Environmental Studies )
    Takehisa Oikawa (an earth environment frontier research center ecosystem change prediction research program group leader / University of Tsukuba)
    Michio Kawamiya (earth environment frontier research center earth environment modeling research program group leader)
    Takashi Kohyama (an earth environment frontier research center ecosystem change prediction research program group leader / Hokkaido University)
    Masaaki Takahashi (an earth environment frontier research center atmospheric composition change prediction research program group leader / University of Tokyo CCSR)
    Yasuhiro Yamanaka (an earth environment frontier research center global warming prediction research program group leader / Hokkaido University)
<Inside committee of an earth environment frontier>
    Hajime Akimoto (earth environment frontier research center atmospheric composition change prediction research program program director)
    Takakiyo Nakazawa (an earth environment frontier research center atmospheric composition change prediction research program group leader / Tohoku University)
<An external committee, symbiosis project relations>
    Akimasa Sumi (University of Tokyo CCSR / professor, symbiosis 1-1)
    Yoshifumi Yasuoka (Institute of Industrial Science University of Tokyo / professor, symbiosis 3-1)
    Toshiyuki Hibiya (University of Tokyo Department of Earth and Planetary Science/ professor, symbiosis 3-2)
<An external committee, a related endowed institution>
    Gen Inoue (National Institute for Environmental Studies / General research management official )
    Masahiro Endo (University of Tokyo CCSR / professor)
    Tadahiro Hayasaka (Research Institute for Humanity and nature / professor)

(3) The date and a place

    6th time Thurs., May 13, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute

    7th time Thurs., October 28, Heisei 16, Sat., 29
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute

    Octavus time Mon., March 7, Heisei 17
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute

<Research liaison conference>

    (1) In order to promote this project smoothly, hold a research liaison conference once per month in principle.
    (2) All project members participate in principle (from each sub subject to at least one person), report the progress situation of a sub subject, and aim at advance adjustment of the whole project.
    (3) Since this project includes a wide range special domain, in addition to a report of research, perform a review lecture at any time, and it is conduce to a member's mutual understanding.

The date, a place, etc.

    18th time Wed., April 28, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) Future role assignment with old research and a frontier (Tomomichi Kato)
    (2) Progress situation of a climate physics core model improvement subgroup (Shingo Watanabe)
    (3) Analysis & file server of symbiosis 2nd Introduction of taro-pochi-hanako-tama (Hiroyuki Kawarai)

    19th time Mon., June 14, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Earth information hall main conference room
    (1) Performance of the inside resolution version climate model (Tooru Nozawa)
    (2) Carbon cycle model progress situation (Michio Kawamiya)

    20th time Wed., July 28, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) Status of development of DGVM
    (2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction sub model Aerosol calculation introduction and future prediction experiment (K1 relation) (Kengo Sudo)

    21st time Tue., August 31, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) The trial which improves gravity wave resistance parameterization using high resolution AGCM (Shingo Watanabe)
    (2) Status of development of DGVM (Hisashi Sato)

    22nd time Wed., September 29, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) A carbon cycle model group's progress situation (Chisato Yoshikawa)
    (2) A warming - cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation (Naomi Kuba)

    23rd time Fri., November 5, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) Simulating the ice age cycle climate change (Ayako Abe)
    (2) Meeting advices of IGBP/GAIM etc. (Michio Kawamiya)

    24th time Wed., December 8, Heisei 16
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) Marine organism geochemistry modeling (Akio Ishida)
    (2) Chemistry and aerosol modeling in the Kyousei -2 (Kengo Sudo)

    25th time Thurs., January 13, Heisei 17
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
    (1) Development progress situation of an air ? terrestrial carbon cycle joint model (Tomomichi Kato)
    (2) Climate physics core model improvement (Shingo Watanabe)

    26th time Wed., February 16, Heisei 17
    Marine research development mechanism Yokohama research institute Smallness conference room
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