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1. Outline

1. Main point of research

The purposes of this research are developing the integrated model of the earth environment (earth system) which can simulate changing and going in one, and performing global warming prediction which included feedback of a carbon cycle using it, composition of change of the whole earth environment, i.e., climate, and the atmosphere and the ocean and the ecosystem of land and sea affecting it mutually.

In old global warming prediction, about the future of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere which caused warming, using the model simplified based on CO2 release scenario by human activities, the absorbed amount to the ocean and a terrestrial ecosystem (vegetation and soil) was estimated, future prediction of air CO2 concentration was performed first, the result was introduced into the climate model and the simulation of warming and a climatic change has been performed. However, it cannot be said that this is enough. Although CO2 increase causes warming and a climatic change, it is because the feedback effect was not conversely adopted although a climatic change affects CO2 in the atmosphere concentration. Disassembly of a soil organic matter progresses by warming, the concentration of CO2 or methane (CH4) increases into the atmosphere, namely, since positive feedback may act, it is dangerous that this is disregarded.

You have to predict by the model which included the carbon cycle process in the climate model, and adopted the feedback effect. Moreover, although it is thought that warming and a climatic change cause change of an ecosystem, it also influences CO2 and the concentration of CH4. Furthermore, the troposhere ozone which is another greenhouse gas is also influenced of warming and a climatic change. Then, it is necessary to adopt the process of the carbon cycle and atmospheric composition change over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem to a climate model, and to conduct the warming prediction experiments including structure) and those feedbacks for (carbon cycle, atmospheric composition, and a climate integrated model.

2. Research outline

Existing CCSR/NIES developed by the University of Tokyo climate center and National Institute for Environmental Studies as a "physical climate model" of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which mainly treats physical condition It is based on it using a model, The "earth system integrated model" which made the 3rd year for the partial integrated model which adopted to each many process currently studied by each program of Frontier Research Center for Global Change, such as chemical composition change of the atmosphere and the ocean and substance exchange of a terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, to the standard, and combined the whole on it is completed within a research period. All the ball carbon cycle models over the atmosphere, the ocean, and a terrestrial ecosystem will be made from the process by three - 4th, and the warming prediction experiment which included the feedback effect of warming and a carbon cycle using the model which combined it and a climate model will be conducted. About warming and the interaction of atmospheric composition or a terrestrial ecosystem, since there are still more processes of not solving, about the warming itself, they are other subjects (research on parameterization for terrestrial ecosystem model creation) of a symbiosis project. Advancement of parameterization of many physics process (the atmosphere and the sea field) By the field observation and process research which are performed on a basis, it asks for a required parameter, process research required for the improvement in accuracy is conversely requested from the result of a model, and improvement in accuracy of a model is aimed at.

3. Research yearly plan

FY 2002 : Maintenance of the individual model towards research strategy planning of the whole and a sub subject, and partial integrated model production with each sub subject.
FY 2003 : It is development of a partial integrated model for every sub subject.
FY 2004 : A partial integrated model is completed in each sub subject. Numerical simulation start on this stage and in connection with global warming. It applies to the following year (2005) and an experiment is ended, and a result is summarized so that it may be enough for the 4th IPCC report as much as possible.
FY 2005 : Development of the "earth systems model" which ended the experiment by a partial integrated model and unified the whole in parallel simultaneously is started.
FY 2006 : Earth systems model completion. Trial of all earth environment change prediction in accordance with warming using it.

4. Research program in FY 2005

One individual models (atmospheric composition, terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, etc.) to which development is advanced are connected with each research program of a their present location ball environmental frontier research center to a physical climate model (the existing thing developed by the model centering on the "physical" process of the atmosphere, the ocean, and land and CCSR/NIES is used), and the work which makes a "partial integrated model" is continued.
Moreover, development of the "earth system model" which unified such whole "partial integrated model" is started.

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and climatic change joint model development

Parameter tuning of an air sea combined carbon circulation model is completed, the simulation and parameter sensitivity experiment of the carbon cycle at the time of warming are conducted, and a paper is written. Again It participates in activities of C4MIP Phase 1 and 2.After submitting data during FY 2004 about Phase 1, CO2 concentration seasonal variation etc. analyzes about the phenomenon reproduced in the model.Again The result which requests an affiliation from each group who participates about Phase 2, and is related with a sea component is ordered, and a comparative study is performed about the difference in behavior between the oceanographic models about artificial origin carbon dioxide absorption.About development of the global vegetation dynamic model (SEIB-DGVM) of an individual base, a global experiment is conducted through the validation for an every place point, and a paper is written.

(Activities apportionment person in charge: Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Takehisa Oikawa)

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

(1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model

Combination and an induction of chemistry model - CHASER and aerosol model - SPRINTARS to an integrated model main part were performed by the work of the former (FY 2004). This year completes the induction of an aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium model about combination of calculation of troposhere chemistry and aerosol. Moreover, the chemical reaction of halogen and polar stratosphere cloud (PSCs) chemistry are added to CHASER in an integrated model, and it enables it to also perform the simulation of stratosphere ozone, after performing the upswing in the formation of hybrid perpendicular coordinates of an integrated model, and a model top altitude on the basis of cooperation with "climate physics core model approvement" group.
(Operating assignment person in charge: Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Masaaki Takahashi)

(2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

The climate sensitivity experiment of SST}2K or CO2 redoubling is carried out under a realistic setup using the global cloud resolving model NICAM. This performs quantitative evaluation of the cloud-radiation feedback by a detailed cloud physics process rather than there is nothing to the existing cumulus cloud parameterization model. Moreover, it is parallel, the aerosol model to NICAM is mounted, and the model which can evaluate aerosol-cloud-radiation feedback synthetically is developed succeedingly.
(Operating assignment person in charge: Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Masaaki Takahashi)

(3) Cryospheric model development

The final adjustment of the climate-ice sheet joint model turned to the climate change modeling in a scale in 1000 is performed. The analysis of the role of the climate-ice sheet combination in a global warming experiment (scenario experiment) and a glacial epoch cycle experiment is started.
(Operating assignment person in charge: Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Ayako Abe)

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

The extremitas superior of an integrated model is extended to a stratosphere, and it aims at making realistic especially the seasonal proceeding of the atmospheric general circulation of material middle latitude and high latitude for the amount of ozone of a stratosphere. While introducing into an integrated model the hybrid perpendicular coordinates developed by the last fiscal year, a new radiation code, and non-orographic gravity wave resistance parameterization and performing fine tuning, improvement in the speed of a calculation code is attained towards long-term integration. The fluctuation of a stratosphere and the investigation of general circulation by a high resolution air model required for the approvement of gravity wave resistance parameterization are done succeedingly.
(Operating assignment person in charge: Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Seita Emori)

(5) Comparison examination of the participation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) related activities, and warming prediction

In order to contribute to the 4th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), it participates in activity of an international model comparison workshop etc., and comparison examination is performed about the warming prediction intermediate result reported from in and outside the country, the simulation technique, an evaluation technique, etc. Moreover, while performing the trend survey of warming research of each country, information exchange about the progress situation by an internal and external researcher and examination are performed.
(Operating assignment person in charge: Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Taro Matsuno)

5. Enforcement organization in FY 2005

An independent administrative agency marine research development frame is used as a supervisor investigation implementation agency, and an investigation delegate is made into Taro Matsuno (earth environment frontier research center specially appointment researcher). Research and development is done by preparing the following investigation sub subject matter.

(1) A carbon cycle, a carbon cycle, and climatic change joint model development

Representative: Oikawa Takehisa
    (1) terrestrial carbon cycle model
    Akihiko Ito, Katsunori Tanakai, Tomomichi Kato

    (2) Oceanic carbon cycle model
    Yasuhiro Yamanakao, Michiro Kishi, Maki Aita, Chisato Yoshikawa , Michio Kawamiya

    (3) Dynamic vegetation model
    Takashi Kohyama, Hisashi Sato

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

Representative: Masaaki Takahashi
    (1) Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction model
    Masayuki Takigawa, Shingo Watanabe, Tatsuya Nagashima, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura

    (2) A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation
    Naomi Kuba, Tsuneaki Suzuki, Toru Nozawa, Yoko Tsushima,
    Kentaro Suzuki,Teruyuki Namazima, Hirofumi Tomita

(3) Cryospheric model

Representative: Ayako Abe
    Rumu Ohgaito, Tomonori Segawa

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

Representative: Seita Emori
    Tsuneaki Suzuki, Tatsuo Suzuki, KumikoTakada, Masahide Kimoto,
    Hiroyasu Hasumi,Taroh Matsuno, Shingo Watanabe

6. Research steering committee, research liaison conference

<Research steering committee>

(1) Duty

A research program and a report of a research progress situation and a research result are performed from a research implementation member, in response, an external committee performs evaluation and advice at any time about the whole research execution plan and a yearly plan, and a progress situation is checked, while considering the research program of the fiscal year concerned and carrying out suitable advice especially.

(2) A committee's composition

<These project persons concerned, an internal committee> (Thing as of April 1, Heisei 17 in an executive etc.)
    Taroh Matsuno (Frontier Research Center for Global Change appointment researcher specially, symbiosis 2 representation)
    Hiroki Kondo (Frontier Research Center for Global Change and symbiosis 2 representation assistance)
    Ayako Abe (Frontier Research Center for Global Change / University of Tokyo CCSR)
    Seita Emori (Frontier Research Center for Global Change / National Institute for Environmental Studies )
    Takehisa Oikawa (Frontier Research Center for Global Change ecosystem change prediction research program group leader / University of Tsukuba)
    Michio Kawamiya (earth environment frontier research center earth environment modeling research program group leader)
    Takashi Kohyama (Frontier Research Center for Global Change ecosystem change prediction research program group leader / Hokkaido University)
    Masaaki Takahashi (Frontier Research Center for Global Change atmospheric composition change prediction research program group leader / University of Tokyo CCSR)
    Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Frontier Research Center for Global Change global warming prediction research program group leader / Hokkaido University)
<Inside committee of an earth environment frontier>
    Hajime Akimoto (earth environment frontier research center atmospheric composition change prediction research program program director)
    Takakiyo Nakazawa (Frontier Research Center for Global Change atmospheric composition change prediction research program group leader / Tohoku University)
<An external committee, symbiosis project relations>
    Akimasa Sumi (University of Tokyo CCSR / professor, symbiosis 1-1)
    Yoshifumi Yasuoka (Institute of Industrial Science University of Tokyo / professor, symbiosis 3-1)
    Toshiyuki Hibiya (University of Tokyo Department of Earth and Planetary Science/ professor, symbiosis 3-2)
<An external committee, a related endowed institution>
    Gen Inoue (National Institute for Environmental Studies / General research management official )
    Masahiro Endo (University of Tokyo CCSR / professor)
    Tadahiro Hayasaka (Research Institute for Humanity and nature / professor)

(3) The date and a place

  • 9th Mon., May 9, Heisei 17 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Yokohama research institute

  • 10th Tue., October 25, Heisei 17, a Wed., 26th Meteorological Research Institute auditorium

  • 11th Tue., March 14, Heisei 18 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Yokohama research institute

<Research liaison conference>

    (1) In order to promote this project smoothly, hold a research liaison conference once per month in principle.
    (2) All project members participate in principle (from each sub subject to at least one person), report the progress situation of a sub subject, and aim at advance adjustment of the whole project.
    (3) Since this project includes a wide range special domain, in addition to a report of research, perform a review lecture at any time, and it is conduce to a member's mutual understanding.

The date, a place, etc.

  • 27th Wed., April 20, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) Past/present/future simulation of ozone and related species in the context of the IPCC-AR4:Impacts of changes in emissions, climate, and other factors (Kengo Sudo)

    (2) Feedback of a dust-climate-sea system, and carbon cycle modeling progress (Michio Kawamiya)

  • 28th Tue., May 24, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) The latest stratosphere chemical process-related investigation tendency (Masayuki Takigawa)

    (2) Status of development of dynamic global vegetation model SEIB-DGVM (Hisashi Sato)

  • 29th Wed., June 22, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) Discharge process" of the nonmethane hydrocarbon from "vegetation (Kengo Sudo)

    (2) The present condition of the KISSME stratosphere version (Shingo Watanabe)

  • 30th Tue., August 2, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) Participating report of a symbiosis 3-1 subject steering committee (Akihiko Ito)

    (2) Cryospheric model (Fuyuki Saito)

  • 31st Thurs., September 22, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute earth information hall main conference room

    (1) Advanced information-science-and-technology research organization (Gen Inoue)

    (2) Oceanic carbon cycle model (Michio Kawamiya)

    (3) Development of a climate-terrestrial carbon cycle joint model (Tomomichi Kato)

  • 32nd Fri., October 21, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) Oceanic carbon cycle model (Michio Kawamiya)

    (2) Status of development of a dynamic global vegetation model (Hisashi Sato)

    (3) Warming and atmospheric composition interaction (atmospheric chemistry) (Kengo Sudo)

    (4) Cryospheric model (Fuyuki Saito)

    (5) Climate physics core model improvement subgroup (Shingo Watanabe)

  • 33rd Tue., December 20, Heisei 17
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) International measure - to Montreal business trip report-global warming (Hiroki Kondo)

    (2) The progress situation of a stratosphere chemical process (Masayuki Takigawa)

  • 34th Tue., February 7, Heisei 18
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology The Yokohama research institute smallness conference room

    (1) Turn to the 20th century reappearance experiment by an earth environment integrated model. (Toru Nozawa)

    (2) Atmospheric chemistry report on the current situation (Kengo Sudo)

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