2. Outline of Results

1. Generalization

The symbiosis project also became one more year the place which the 4th year finishes and leaves. Since this subject was a completely new subject matter, it means passing in three years, after full-time researchers start an investigation substantially together, but it has appeared in the shape where what is characteristic of the 3rd year truly and was visualized at the time of planning became brave. That is, the issue was probed, the warming experiment by the carbon cycle and climate joint model hurried and performed while it had been inadequate in the last fiscal year was anew performed after correction, and the result which will seemingly be very reasonable was obtained. The analysis of feedback of a carbon cycle is also conducted and I think that the difference arising from the individuality of a model came to the place on a par with other centers in the world at any rate. That individual base vegetation dynamic-model SEIB DGVM was also only carrying out test calculation individually by the climatic conditions of former some performed the simulation of the natural vegetation distribution on all land also by that of discretion with completion in T42 resolution (280 km mesh) once, and the result of success was fully obtained as a "new model." It was the thing in which a feeling that what also just expected this, and the thing imagined and carried out became a shape actually is made to hold. The enlargement to the stratosphere of a physical climate core model and a mesosphere was also ended, and the simulation result of status quo recurrence was obtained. This also shows the reproducibility of a higher rank clearly in the model in the world. However, the proceeding of a little enlargement to the stratosphere and mesosphere of a chemical process is impossible yet behind time.

It was the big results of this year that a concrete shape came to look above on the material points of "integrated model" development. When symbiosis project subject 1, 2, and 4 joint steering committee to which it was carried out in October, 2005 released, there were also many questions and comments and they had a big response. The comment whether "whether could you do still more and to have approached" individually were also heard. Although parties were drawing future similitude as it is for considering anew, to the man of an outside who was hearing the fragmentary advices in the middle of old development, the "integrated model" aims at what kind of thing and what, or possibly I was not necessarily understood with realization.

By discussion of what to do towards the symbiosis project closure back AR5 in a joint steering committee, next, apprehension was in harmony at the center in the warming prediction by an integrated model, and development / approvement establishment centering on KISSME was also discussed concretely. You have to complete the integrated model which includes atmospheric chemistry towards the "next" in an ultimate year.

2. Every sub theme, outline for every individual item

(1) A carbon cycle model, a carbon cycle and a climatic change joint model

1 terrestrial carbon cycle model

It is the target of this subgroup to include in the earth system integrated model which builds the model which simulates the carbon cycle by a terrestrial ecosystem, and is built with this subject when building the earth environment change forecasting model by artificial greenhouse gas discharge, and to perform warming prediction. The Heisei 17 fiscal year is (1). Reappearance of the carbon cycle during the 20th century by a terrestrial carbon cycle-climate joint model (Sim-CYCLE+MATSIRO+AGCM), and (2) It worked about two points of an advancement of the terrestrial carbon cycle model (Sim-CYCLE) by observational data.

As a result, the joint model which carried out (1) development could express the carbon cycle in the 20th century well, and it was thought that the availability of a model was high. (2) It was shown that technique development of the data assimilation which will have prediction performance in the future may be performed, and it may contribute to the upswing in presumed accuracy of a terrestrial model by optimization using MODIS satellite observational data of parameter values.

2 Oceanic carbon cycle model

Although the preliminary warming experiment by an air sea combined carbon circulation model was ended in the stage in the last fiscal year, parameter tuning was not adequate about a terrestrial ecosystem model in particular, and some retrials needed to be conducted in order to acquire high reliability. Parameter tuning and a re-experiment were completed in this fiscal year. As a result of conducting the experiment which investigates the strength of the feedback which the interaction of a climatic change and a carbon cycle brings about to global warming by this model, as for the interaction, it turned out that it works in the direction which raises the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, and has the positive feedback effect of accelerating warming. It is the main cause that disassembly of a soil organic matter is promoted by warming. In this result, the carbon-dioxide-levels differences during the 2 experiments in the 2100 time are 130ppmv. This is converted into surface-of-the-earth mean temperature, and can be called significant quantity in about 1 time. The sensitivity experiment using other parameter sets will also be under execution now in March, Heisei 18. A possibility of a result of being reflected in the 4th report of IPCC with which issue is scheduled for 2007 is high here. Moreover, in the time scale for about several years, although the phenomenon in which it followed in footsteps of change of temperature and CO2 concentration changed was observed, it was checked that the similar phenomenon is reproduced also in a model result. However, the model result of the time lag between temperature change and CO2 concentration change is longer than observation. Moreover, when warming was carried out and the analysis detailed about the causality whose CO2 absorbed dose of the ocean decreases was conducted, it turned out that the role with voluntary diversification of the distribution in the surface of the ocean is played with all carbonic acids and alkalinity besides a temperature change. Furthermore, the experiment using the model which expressed the seed composition of a plant and a zooplankton explicitly was also conducted, and it investigated about the influence which the climate change of a scale will have on a hydrographic table layer ecosystem for ten years.

3 Construction of the vegetation zone moving projection model in a terrestrial carbon cycle model

In order to simulate a land ecosystem function in the time factor of thousands of years from hundreds of years, the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) which took even the vegetation distribution accompanying a climate change into consideration is needed. After the target of this subgroup develops DGVM uniquely and fully verifies the performance, it is making it combine with an earth integrated model. In the Heisei 17 fiscal year, the performance check was performed with the further improvement of SEIB-DGVM which finished development by the last fiscal year. a until success was carried out to some extent that SEIB-DGVM reproduces some phenomena typically observed in a vegetable ecosystem, and the present vegetation distribution and the ecosystem functional distribution on climatic conditions in old trial calculation.

(2) Warming and atmospheric composition change interaction model development

1 Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

In warming and an atmospheric composition diversification interaction sub model, it is a big subject to enable on-line calculation of aerosol and chemistry using atmospheric chemistry process (ozone distribution etc.), the global chemistry model CHASER which sets it as the main purposes to express and predict an interaction with warming of aerosol, and the ocean and terrestrial vegetation diversification, and used CCSR/NIES AGCM as footing, and the aerosol model SPRINTARS. In warming and an atmospheric composition diversification interaction sub model, it is a big subject to enable on-line calculation of aerosol and chemistry using atmospheric chemistry process (ozone distribution etc.), the global chemistry model CHASER which sets it as the main purposes to express and predict an interaction with warming of aerosol, and the ocean and terrestrial vegetation diversification, and used CCSR/NIES AGCM as footing, and the aerosol model SPRINTARS. Stratosphere ozone change process was first introduced into the CHASER model in simple, and the future prediction experiment of a global ozone concentration place was conducted in H17 fiscal year (it is hereafter described as this year) according to IPCC-SRES each scenario. Although the reaction future warming affects atmospheric chemistry process was becoming clear in the experiment conducted by H16 fiscal year (it is hereafter described as a preceding fiscal year), it analyzed from this experiment about what kind of reaction change of the stratosphere ozone of further the future has. Especially a rally of the future amount of stratosphere ozone influencing greatly the stratosphere / commutation between the troposhere of ozone (STE), and making the global quantity of troposhere ozone increase in every scenario understood. On the other hand, it checked that stratosphere ozone change taken into consideration this time hardly affected global par methane and sulfuric acid aerosol concentration. Moreover, a CHASER model is used from a preceding fiscal year. Although the experiment which contributes to the 4th IPCC account is conducted, the analysis is advanced contacting Read Orser etc. succeedingly also about this. This year did the work which introduces a stratosphere chemical process into a CHASER model further, and performed induction of method-of-calculation construction and an approvement of the photodissociation quorum for stratosphere chemistry, and a stratosphere chemical reaction, and land improvement of emission data. The chemical species taken into consideration in CHASER by this work corresponding to stratosphere chemistry became 79 kinds, and the chemical reaction became 213 (the heterogeneous reaction in a stratosphere is not included).

2 A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

In this subject of research, in order to evaluate the climate reaction of the interaction of clouds and aerosol, it aims at developing the numerical model which can express the fine physics process of aerosol transportation and clouds in detail. A numerical simulation which paid its attention to the reaction of aerosol was done about the optical quality of the clouds which are the results acquired in the last fiscal year using the non-statics bottle method detailed cloud physics model, and the earmark acquired by the satellite observation was reproduced. Moreover, the work which mounts aerosol chemistry transportation model SPRINTARS in the global non-statics cloud resolving model NICAM developed in the earth environment frontier research center was done.

(3) Cryospheric model development

In order to investigate the influence of the response characteristic and sea level on the ice sheet to warming, inclusion of the ice sheet model to presumption by a high resolution air sea joint model, presumption which inputted the air oceanographic model result into the ice sheet model, and an earth system model including a carbon cycle, and the uncertainty factor of the model about ice sheet change were examined. MIROC3.2 In the SRES scenario (A1B and B1) warming experiment using the high resolution version and the inside resolution version, the contribution to the sea level of Greenland and the South Pole ice sheet became 15cm rise in the sea level and 5cm sea surface fall by the high resolution model respectively, and it turned out that being smaller than sea thermal expansion and an advanced change tendency can obtain the result which does not have the latest observation fact and inconsistency. Furthermore, it is CO2 in order to investigate long-term influence. The air sea joint model experimental findings which continued giving the concentration of an increase experiment or a SRES scenario 4 times were inputted into the ice sheet model (Saito and Abe-Ouchi, 2004, 2006) developed so that reality might often be expressed. In 4 redoubling experiments of CO2, the Greenland ice sheet will disappear mostly about in 2000, and sea levels are a 6m upsurge and SRES. When the result which the end or subsequent ones of the 21st century continued giving the concentration of a scenario in 200 was used, it turned out that long-term reaction continues compared with the case where temperature is fixed at the end of the 21st century, and an ice sheet finally disappears. In order to clarify uncertainty of an ice sheet model, no less than two points, the numerical technique and a mass income-and-outgo model, were examined, and the grade of the uncertainty on the conditions which result in ice sheet disappearance was also clarified. It ends mostly and the program alteration for enabling calculation of air-ice sheet combination (partial integrated model) which synchronized is continuing the present adjustment.

(4) Climate physics core model improvement

An approvement or the model taken in newly is developed for many processes of a stratosphere by the climate model (CCSR/NIES a model, existing) of the atmosphere, the ocean, and a land side which consists mainly of a physical process. About the approvement of an air model (AGCM), the approvement of many processes of an inadequate middle atmosphere (a stratosphere and mesosphere) is aimed at by the present model. That is, while change of the radiation from the physical chemistry process and the sun of an ozone layer peculiar to a middle atmosphere influences each other mutually and causes change of a middle atmosphere by the inroad of the artificial origin substance to the inside of a middle atmosphere, it clarifies the frame which combines with change of the lower layer troposhere and produces a climate change by model experiment. Moreover, the action of an internal gravity wave and it clarify reaction affect atmospheric circulation by a super-high resolution air model.

This year mainly introduced the enlargement to the middle atmosphere of the integrated model which combination of the atmosphere, the ocean, land, a carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol process completed, and a physical process component (a sigma-p hybrid coordinate system, a new radiation code, and Hines parameterization) required in a stratosphere, and did version compilation / consolidation work during the program of an integrated model. Moreover, since the radiation balance of an air extremitas superior changed with change of a radiation code and perpendicular resolution, the tuning about itinerant Buddhist distribution of the troposhere was started. About improvement in the speed of a calculation code, the code was improved so that the parallelization function in a node of an Earth Simulator could be used in parallel between the conventional MPI nodes. About the investigation of the air internal gravity wave using high resolution AGCM, it carried out succeedingly for the approvement of Hines non-orographic gravity wave resistance parameterization. Moreover, for presumption of momentum flux diversification of the gravity wave at the time of global warming, the result of a warming experiment of a symbiosis first division title and sumi group was analyzed, and it collected into the paper.

3. Ripple effect, development direction, improving point, etc.

After it becomes clear that the effect which a climatic change exerts on a carbon cycle has positive feedback, the idea that warming prediction should be performed by an integrated model including a carbon cycle from now on is the flow in the whole world. The theory that a warming experiment should be conducted focusing on an integrated model even in Japan in examination of the research strategy turned to the 5th IPCC account after the symbiosis project closure on the occasion of symbiosis project 1, 2, and 4 joint steering committee to which it was carried out in October, 2005 was offered strongly. Therefore, as this project was planned at the beginning, "development" was a main purpose this time, but it is becoming important still more to tie to next "practical use", and to go practical use. If a technical problem is considered in the aspect, it will be necessary to consider and place not only the intensive integration type adopted now but a distributed connection type as structure of the model which unifies the process of many special fields of study.

In Community Climate System Model in U.S. NCAR, the structure which connects with a coupler a distributed connection type, i.e., the specific process which many specialists made, model, and is made into an integrated model is taken. The plan needed on the character of the joint use facilities of university union is seemed. In Europe, the EU project of PRISM which connects many subsystem models apart from the thing of each center is undertaken. We gave many processes, such as a carbon cycle and chemistry, directly on the basis of the existing physical climate model, in addition have made one indivisible model. When saying that the best prediction experiment will be conducted in one team, such an intensive integration type is suitable and it is efficient. It seems that distributed type is tried in other centers in the world at the beginning, and there is also a place behind changed into the concentrated type.

However, since the engaged person was also a small number of people when an "integrated model" was an exploitation stage, the concentrated type could be used, but considering that the man of future many does research by an integrated model, or comes to take part in improvement along with the above-mentioned flow, in addition to the conventional thing, it will be necessary to also take conversion in distributed structure into consideration.

4. Announcement situation of reports

<Oral announcement>

terrestrial carbon cycle model

Oceanic carbon cycle model

Construction of the vegetation zone moving projection model in a terrestrial carbon cycle model

Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

Climate physics core model improvement

<Paper announcement>

terrestrial carbon cycle model

Oceanic carbon cycle model

Construction of the vegetation zone moving projection model in a terrestrial carbon cycle model

Warming and an atmospheric composition change interaction

A warming-cloud, aerosol, and radiation feedback precision evaluation

Cryospheric model development

Climate physics core model improvement

5. Situation of international joint (cooperation) research

(1) It is the framework of the deep international cooperation of relation to this subject.

A. The trend towards the 4th evaluation report of the 1st task force of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change

The situation of AR4 text (special summary and each chapter) writing

About writing of the AR4 text of the 1st task force (WG1) of IPCC, the 0th manuscript (ZOD=Zero Order Draft) already drawn up based on the 1stWG1 responsibility writer (LA=Lead Author) meeting (Trieste) in September, Heisei 16 (2004) is packed in mid-January, Heisei 17, builds, and is. The private review by the specialist to it was brought near by 4 beginning of the month in Heisei 17 (2005), and was updated by the first manuscript (FOD=First Order Draft) by August through discussion by the 2ndLA meetings (Beijing) in mid-May. FOD was applied to formal refereeing by a special difference reader (ER). the result should pass discussion by the 3rdLA meetings (New Zealand Christchurch) of WG1 in mid-December -- it becomes the second manuscript (SOD=Second Order Draft), and it is sent to the government of each country, and ER, and refereeing is started on April 7, Heisei 18 (2006). As a subsequent schedule, the last manuscript is packed through examination by the 4thLA meetings of WG1 in June which received refereeing, it is sent to the government of each country on October 27, and refereeing is started. Based on the result, acceptance is made by WG1 meeting of the whole (place undecidedness, January 29 to February 1) held in Heisei 19 (2007).

There was big progress following 2004 about climatic change prediction (the 10th of AR4, Chapter 11) of AR4, climatic change cause specification (Chapter 9), etc. 2005. In order to advance evaluation of these fields, IPCC/WG1 (common chairperson: Susan Solomon and Dahe Qin) is, The joint model task force of a world climate research program (WCRP=World Climate Research Programme) (WGCM=Working Group on Coupled Modelling) Sectional-meeting length: Both the joint model comparison project advanced under John Mitchell (CMIP=Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) Chief examiner: In cooperation with Gerald Meehl, it requested from the climate model group in the world, and results, such as the 20th century reappearance experiment, a gradual increase prediction experiment, and a scenario prediction experiment, were submitted to climate model diagnosis and a mutual comparison program (PCMDI= Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison) by September, 2004. Although the analysis research on use of these calculation results was sought and research had been advanced, analysis research results, such as a model result comparative study, mainly became an opportunity to be announced by the workshop in Hawaii early in March, 2005, and tell a result to LA of WG1 in an early stage. However, in order to make it actually reflected in AR4, to be accepted by the academic journal with special refereeing is needed in December, 2005 in schedule in principle, and the efforts for for it have been poured out in each research consortium.

A policy decision person-oriented summary (SPM) writing situation

The writer team by IPCC/WG1 which includes Taro Matsuno symbiosis 2 representation about the summary for the policy decision persons of AR4 (SPM=Summary for Policy Makers) was elected by May, Heisei 17 (2005). ZOD will be created by September by this team, it is missing from private refereeing, a meeting of a writer team is held and considered immediately after the 3rdabove-mentioned LA meetings in the said place based on the result, a manuscript is packed based on it, and the government of each country and refereeing by ER are started simultaneously with SOD of the above-mentioned text. The subsequent schedule is the same as the above-mentioned text, and, finally the recognition of (line by line) for every line is deliberated in the above-mentioned WG1 meeting of the whole. After recognition of SPM is made, the text will be accepted on the assumption that the adjustment from an aspect of adjustment with that.

The situation of whole IPCC

"The ozone layer and the special report document about protection of a climate system" which were deliberated by the 2nd joint meetings of WG1 and WG3 which 23rdIPCC general meetings were held in Ethiopia Addis Ababa in April, Heisei 17 (2005), and were held in the said place just before that were accepted. This is the report in which the suitable knowledge for a policy was summarized about the technology-side and the field of a correspondence policy based on the future prospect of ozone layer depletion about what has greenhouse effect by the alternative substance of a future ozone-depleting substance.

The "special report document about recovery and a reservoir of carbon dioxide" deliberated by the octavus time meeting of WG3 which 24thIPCC general meetings were held in Canada Montreal in September, and was opened in the just before said place was accepted. Moreover, at this general meeting, the deliberations over the new discharge scenario of IPCC were made (refer to the following B). Furthermore, although an active discussion was made also about the future outreach of AR4, deliberations were continued next time (25thIPCC general meetings: April, Heisei 18 Mauritius holding schedule).

Moreover, under the related Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), he will be German Bon in May, It is the subcommittee of a contracting State meeting (COP=Conference of Parties) of this treaty, A science top and the subsidiary organ about technical advice (the 22nd meeting (SBSTA22) of SBSTA=Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice was held, and also it will be in November - December) The 11th contracting State meetings (COP11) The 1st contracting State meeting (COP/MOP1=1st Meeting of the Parties serving as the Conference of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol) accompanying the Kyoto Protocol having gone into effect in February and the 23rd meeting (SBSTA23) of SBSTA were held in Canada Montreal. In COP11, in order to secure the examination time of an IPCC integrated report proposal from IPCC based on a request, the pending question of postponing the schedule of COP13 which was a holding schedule for four weeks in November, 2007 was approved formally.

B. Future IPCC activity : the situation about a new discharge scenario

In the 3rd evaluation report (TAR) or AR4, although the result of the climatic change prediction based on a discharge scenario with "the IPCC special report document (SRES=Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000) about a discharge scenario" is summarized fundamentally, the necessity of examining a new discharge scenario has been pointed out about addition of a subsequent international situation, cooperation with model prediction research, etc. By IPCC/WGIII, the workshop (the Austria Laxenburg, June 29, Heisei 17 to July 1) about a new discharge scenario was held, and it argued about three options about the new discharge scenario and the research procedure.

• Option A:IPCC only reviews the related paper which only comes out.
• Although option B:IPCC shows the procedure of scenario creation and adjusts workshop holding etc., the researcher of each country creates a scenario uniquely. IPCC evaluates the result.
• Option C: Like SRES, the global examination group by a researcher is formed, a new scenario is made, and it is used for model prediction.

At him, the examination result by TGNES is for the content of discussion of this workshop to be reported by the above-mentioned 24th time general meeting of IPCC, and to recognize institution of task group * (TGNES=Task Group on Emission Scenarios) about the new ejectment scenario charged with the appointment examined about the following, and to be reported when deliberating this subject in the 25th general meetings. :

• Details of the role (Facilitation) of promotion which IPCC should achieve, and the role (Coordination) of adjustment
• The result acquired from a discharge scenario development process
• The process and schedule of new discharge development
• Systematic maintenance of activity of IPCC about adjustment of a scenario, evaluation, and use

Seita Emori (National Institute for Enviromental Studies) of the symbiosis subject 2 and Mikiko Kainuma (National Institute for Enviromental Studies) are selected from Japan by the member. According to Mr. Emori, by TGNES, three proposals are inquiring anew based on an argument in the above-mentioned workshop.

• Proposal 1: Before a new discharge scenario is used for the prediction experiment of a climate model, it may be postponed by :AR5 which performs creation of the middle evaluation similar to SRES, and a special report document in 2014.
• Proposal 2: Simplify middle evaluation of a new discharge scenario in a certain form, and make AR5 do in 2013.
• Proposal 3: Decide first the new discharge scenario used for a climate model prediction experiment. Then, creation of a climate model prediction experiment and a social economy scenario is performed in parallel (impact evaluation is also parallel in the possible range, and is performed). Middle evaluation of a new discharge scenario is unnecessary. AR5 will be completed in 2013.

The point which needs a detailed scenario for a local target including aerosol, an ozone precursor, land use change, etc. is pointed out supposing the model experiment by an earth system model coming to be completely conducted by research towards future AR5 from the WG1 persons concerned. From this aspect, holding in September, 2006 is planned for the workshop which examines the detailed specification of a scenario required for an earth system model by cosponsorship of WCRP/WGCM and IGBP/AIMES by the CMIP chief examiners Gerald Meehl.

At a 25 IPCC general meeting (Mauritius, April, this year), it is due to deliberate as one of the main subjects for discussion about the decision plan of the future about the new discharge scenario based on the report of TGNES.

(2) Participation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC)

= IPCC WG1 Operation of a home assistance bureau =

In order to contribute to the 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) report (AR4), holding of an IPCC related meeting and offer of comparison of the technique of through and warming prediction research, information exchange, and the opinion as a specialist of participation, a trend survey, etc. were performed. The result was reported to the persons concerned through the meeting and the homepage. The main activities are as follows. :

• "The board of governors in one country of IPCC WG" was held, and decision of a business plan and information exchange were performed. (June, 2005, September, February, 2006)
• Support (June, 2005) of a "3rdIPCC domestic liaison committee" and support (March, 2006) of a "4thIPCC domestic liaison committee" were offered, and examination about domestic information exchange and a domestic measure with the other task force persons concerned was performed.
• The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology sponsorship exhibition booth in "the 11th time conclusion country meeting (COP11) of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1st conclusion country meeting (MOP1) accompanying the Kyoto Protocol effectuation" was planned and managed, and Japan's warming prediction research (symbiosis project) was sent to the world. (December, 2005)
• Recommendation to IPCC at the following IPCC related meeting and a workshop attendant was performed, and traveling-expenses support was offered.
  "23rdIPCC general meetings and a 2ndWG1/WG3 joint meeting" (April, 2005 Ethiopia), "a 2nd IPCC-WG1 LA meeting" (May, 2005 China), and "24thIPCC general meetings" (November, 2005 Canada) "3rd IPCC-WG1 LA meeting" (December, 2005 New Zealand), "the 11th time conclusion country meeting (COP11) of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1st conclusion country meeting accompanying the Kyoto Protocol effectuation (MOP1)" (December, 2005)
• The report and the latest information on an IPCC related meeting, a workshop, etc. were sent through the homepage of the support secretariat in one country of IPCC WG at home. (At any time)
• Introduction adjustment of an IPCC-related comment etc. (at any time)

(Appendix) The agenda of the international meeting to which the 2nd subject of symbiosis participated in management

The 8th International Workshop on Next Generation Climate Models for Advanced High Performance Computing Facilities Program

VENUE: Hilton, Albuquerque, USA DATE: February 23-25, 2006