JAMSTEC > Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) > Event

COP27 Japan Pavilion Seminar
Current status and future perspectives on greenhouse gas emission mitigation and impacts

Time schedule


Welcome Message

Aya Takatsuki
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Tokyo, Japan


Earth system modeling for gaining comprehensive understanding of global change

Michio Kawamiya
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan

Abstract : Global change is not only limited to climate change. Changes in land use, nitrogen load on land and consequent coastal eutrophication, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, among others, are now the issues on the planetary scale. Earth system models (ESMs) have been a synonym for climate models with carbon cycle but, equipped with many component models developed in the dedicated fields, are transforming into a powerful tool to deal with those complex problems. ESMs can, for example, quantify the impacts on carbon cycle, caused by land use change through biofuel production to meet with a socio-economic scenario consistent with a given mitigation target; this should then be considered to revisit the scenario. Various aspects of recent ESM development, such as coupling with models for human activities, will be reviewed in the presentation as a food for thought regarding ESM’s role in quantifying the planetary boundaries.


Greenhouse gas monitoring with Japanese observational facilities and models

Akihiko Ito
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract : High-quality monitoring of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is prerequisite for achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. This talk shows our current research activities (e.g., SII-8 project by the MOE) towards the GHG monitoring system through integration of monitoring and modeling. Atmospheric observations by ground observatories, ships, aircrafts, and satellites, covering city to global scales, are conducted by many ministries (MEXT, MOE, MLIT etc.), institutes (JAMSTEC, JAXA, NIES, MRI etc.), and university groups. Models of atmospheric transport and surface exchange are developed, aiming at quick evaluation of GHGs budget at multiple scales.


Monitoring GHG emissions from space in a changing climate: prospects and challenges

Kevin W. Bowman
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA

Abstract : Dramatic increase in atmospheric CO2 from preindustrial times to present is the primary driver of climate change. The spatial origin of the CO2 growth rate and its variability is a complex function of anthropogenic, terrestrial, and oceanic processes. While constrained at global scales, the tilt of anthropogenic emissions towards developing countries has increased regional uncertainty at levels that rival natural variability. Rapid economic changes from COVID-19, global conflicts including the war in Ukraine, and supply-chain disruptions have complicated fossil fuel patterns. Moreover, patterns of climate variability, including the 2010, 2015 El Niños and the 2020 Australian, Brazilian, and Siberian fires, directly affect the airborne fraction through spatially complex land carbon processes such as fires, gross primary productivity, and respiration while modulating atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchanges across entire ocean basins. Changes in the frequency and intensity of climatic variability may considerably alter net carbon exchanges, leading to carbon-climate feedbacks. The co-location of regional emissions and natural fluxes complicate the attribution of expected changes in atmospheric CO2 to carbon mitigation strategies such as those proposed by the Paris Climate Accord and evaluated by the Global Stocktake.
At the same, the 21st century has witnessed an international armada of space-borne sensors that measure minute changes in CO2 concentrations, concomitant air quality pollutant emissions such as NO2, unprecedented detail in forest structure, land-use change, and other critical aspects of the Earth System supplemented by new insights into human activities afforded by sophisticated data analytics. We survey crucial elements of this constellation and the systems needed to synthesize the vast data they provide to assess the prospects and challenges to underpin a transparent GHG monitoring system in a changing climate.


An earth system perspective of the requirements and challenges to reach net-zero emissions

Josep G. Canadell
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Climate Science Centre, Canberra, Australia

Abstract : Reaching net-zero anthropogenic emissions is a requirement to stabilize the global climate system as stated in the Paris Agreement. However, natural carbon sinks on land and oceans also play a dominant role in shaping the ultimate atmospheric composition and climate change. Here I'll discuss some of the key findings of the last IPCC assessment regarding controls of carbon sinks and their evolution under a warmer world. The talk will underscore the need for tracking and understanding all anthropogenic and natural GHG sources and sinks as we embark on the fastest energy transition of all times with consequences for the evolution of natural carbon sinks.


Global emissions trends amidst enormous mitigation challenges

Shobhakar Dhakal
Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract : This presentation will deliver key insights from IPCC's sixth mitigation assessment on prevailing trends of emissions. This will first present the scale of our mitigation challenges and the prevailing patterns of emissions’ trends and drivers which are worrisome. We are not in track to limiting warming to 1.5°C but there are also few positive signs too. Secondly, it will show that the emissions pathways exist to limit warming to 1.5°C and the windows are not closed yet but this calls for urgent actions and enabling. A close cooperation between the Asia and Oceania would be strongly encouraged for developing regional specific mitigation policy, particularly for the megacities.


5 min for Chairing/Changeovers

Prabir Patra
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan


Panel discussion

Nobuko Saigusa, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
Yugo Kanaya, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Josep G. Canadell, CSIRO, Climate Science Centre, Canberra, Australia
Shobhakar Dhakal, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand
Kevin W. Bowman, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), CA, USA
Michio Kawamiya, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan