December 19, 2014
NB: This month's forecast is based on 9 ensemble members, because TMI and TMI-AMSRE SST datasets used to initialize other ensemble members are unavailable since November 2014.
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction shows that a warmer-than-normal condition over the tropical Pacific will continue until the early next year and then turn into El Niño Modoki with the SST anomalies peaking in the central tropical Pacific.
In consideration of the actual societal impacts, our tentative definition of ENSO (or Modoki) is based on the overall tropical structure and its influences, and is not based only on the single criterion of the Niño 3.4 index scalar variable.
We believe that this new approach must be elaborated more in a quantitative way.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki until the next boreal summer.
Regional forecast: In this boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of western Europe, Africa, Middle East, eastern/western Russia, India, China, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, western U.S. and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., southern Russia, and eastern U.S. in particular will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The forecasts of seasonally averaged rainfall in this boreal winter show that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Africa, and Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to the present weak El Niño and subsequent development of an El Niño Modoki. A wetter-than-normal condition will be expected in U.S., in particular the western U.S., partly due to the warmer-than-normal SST associated with persistence of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

November 24, 2014
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction shows that the present weak El Niño will continue until the early next year and then turn into El Niño Modoki with the SST anomalies peaking in the central tropical Pacific. In consideration of the actual societal impacts, our tentative definition of ENSO (Modoki) is based on the overall tropical structure and its influences, and is not based only on the single criterion of the Niño 3.4 index scalar variable. We believe that this new approach must be elaborated more in a quantitative way.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming will develop in the Indian Ocean, in response to the Pacific El Niño (Modoki). This is expected to continue until the next boreal summer.
Regional forecast: In this boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., southern and northeastern Russia, and central-eastern U.S. in particular will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonally averaged rainfall in this boreal winter shows that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Africa, and eastern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to the present weak El Niño. A wetter-than-normal condition will be expected in U.S., in particular the western U.S., partly due to the warmer-than-normal SST associated with persistence of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

October 22, 2014
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predictions indicate that the present weak El Niño will continue until early next year. The SST anomalies extended all the way along the equator will then gradually turn to an El Niño Modoki.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD in the Indian Ocean is now changing to a basin-wide warm mode and that condition is expected to continue in boreal winter as the Indian Ocean capacitor effect in response to Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki.
Regional forecast: In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., western/eastern Russia, southern parts of Australia, and central-eastern U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonal averaged rainfall in Dec.2014-Feb. 2015 suggests that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, and East Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. All those may be somehow related to the course of El Niño. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S, in particular, western U.S., partly because of the warmer-than-normal SST associated with the continuation of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.

September 24, 2014
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predicts that the present weak phase of El Niño will continue until boreal winter. That condition will gradually shift to an El Niño Modoki in early next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD in the Indian Ocean will change to a basin-wide warm mode in boreal winter in response to the capacitor effect of Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki.
Regional forecast: In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia, South American Continent, northern U.S., and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, southern parts of South Africa, Australia, and U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
For the rainfall, again as a seasonally averaged view, the Maritime Continent (except for Sumatra), northern Australia, Caribbean countries, and East Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. All those may be somehow related to the development of weak El Niño and negative IOD. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S, in particular, California, because of the warmer-than-normal SST; this may be related to the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”, too.

August 20, 2014
ENSO forecast: Our SINTEX-F model still shows that the weak El Niño condition will continue and mature in late boreal fall and early winter. However, the simultaneous El Niño Modoki signature will become relatively prominent in early next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD will mature in fall and change into a basin-wide mode in late boreal fall/winter, possibly due to the capacitor effect of either the Pacific El Nino or the El Nino Modoki
Regional forecast: Most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia, South American Continent, western U.S., Mexico, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in September. On the other hand, South Africa, central China, southern Australia, central-eastern U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition in September.
In boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, eastern/western Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, western/eastern U.S., Mexico, Australia and the Far East including Japan will be in a warmer-than-normal condition owing to the development of El Nino, whereas central Russia, South Africa and central U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent (except for Sumatra), India, northeastern Australia, Caribbean countries, and East Africa will be in a drier-than-normal condition in boreal fall owing to the development of El Nino and negative IOD. On the other hand, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern China and U.S. In particular, the wetter-than-normal condition in California will be associated with the warmer-than-normal SST of the newly identified phenomenon “California Nino”.

July 23, 2014
ENSO forecast: The evolving El Niño is expected to remain weak and mature in the late boreal summer and most probably will continue through the winter. It will evolve into a weak El Niño Modoki in the early next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, its uncertainty remains high because of the large spreads in the prediction plumes.
Regional forecast: Most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia, and South American Continent will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in August and September owing to the development of El Niño. On the other hand, the Far East including Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition in September.
In the boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeast Asia, and South American Continent will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas western China, central-eastern U.S., and southeastern Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent (except for Sumatra) in Asia, India, Northeastern Australia, Caribbean countries, and East Africa will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal fall. On the other hand, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. In particular, the wetter-than-normal condition in California will be associated with the warmer-than-normal SST of the newly identified phenomenon “California Niño”. In the austral spring, the southern African region will be in a drier-than-normal condition.

June 18, 2014
ENSO forecast: The developing El Niño is expected to reach its height in late boreal summer and then continue at least through the winter. After the late winter, it will evolve into an El Niño Modoki.
Indian Ocean forecast: The probability of a negative IOD is very high in the tropical Indian Ocean during summer and fall.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, and Southeastern Asia will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, the Far East including Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most parts of Australia and South Africa will be colder-than-normal in austral winter while most parts of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.
In the boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeast Asia, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas most parts of China, eastern-central part of U.S., southeastern Canada, Korea and Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. The unique combination of a negative IOD in the Indian Ocean and an El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan. Indian sub-continent will experience a drier than normal summer monsoon season.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, Caribbean countries, and West Africa will also be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, the southern African region will be in a drier-than-normal condition.

May 19, 2014 (notes updated May 26, 2014)
ENSO forecast: El Niño will develop and reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, eastern China, central-eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most part of Australia will be colder-than-normal in austral winter, while most part of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.
In the boreal fall, most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, northern Japan, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas eastern Russia, most part of U.S., southern Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. In case of the negative IOD in the Indian Ocean, the unique combination with El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, Angola, Namibia, and central Australia will be in a drier-than-normal condition.

April 21, 2014 (notes updated April 30, 2014)
ENSO forecast: Present condition similar to El Nino Modoki will evolve into El Nino, which will reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, North Africa, Middle East, western-central Russia, India, northern China, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, southern China, most parts of Canada, eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. This, however, may depend on the zonal location of the peak SST anomaly. In the boreal fall, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, Mexico, and western U.S. will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas most parts of Europe, northern Russia, central-eastern U.S., Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. Above normal precipitation is expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu season. Drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the eastern part of Australia in the austral fall and winter.
In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, southern region of South Africa and West Australia will experience cooler-than-normal condition in the austral winter, while southern African region and most parts of Brazil will be in a warmer-than-normal condition. In the austral spring, most parts of the Southern Hemisphere will be in a warmer-than-normal condition except for the South Africa.

March 18, 2014 (notes updated March 24, 2014)
ENSO forecast: We expect El Niño will start evolving in late boreal spring/early summer and reach its height in the late summer of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: We expect a neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean in 2014.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, South Africa, central Brazil and most parts of Australia will experience colder-than-normal condition in the austral fall. In the austral winter, most parts of the Southern Hemisphere will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Australia.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, North Africa, Middle East, Russia, Far East (including Japan), Canada, and eastern U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In contrast, India, northern part of Southeast Asia, and western U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition. In the boreal summer, most part of Europe, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas U.S. Canada, and Far East (including Japan) will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
Regarding precipitation, the Maritime Continent, Southeast Asia, Southern China, Taiwan, West Africa, will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring. In the boreal summer, the Maritime Continent, India, and Mexico will be in a drier-than-normal condition, possibly owing to the influence of El Niño. The El Niño will bring a slightly drier-than-normal condition in the eastern part of Australia in the austral winter. In Japan, we expect almost normal precipitation as an average of JJA; our model, however, suggests above normal precipitation in June because of the active Baiu front.

February 18, 2014 (notes updated February 20, 2014)
ENSO forecast: We expect El Niño-Modoki (rather than El Niño) will start evolving in late boreal spring/early summer and reach its height in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: We expect a neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean in 2014.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, South Africa and Brazil will experience colder-than-normal condition in the austral fall and winter, while central Africa, Australia, and the southern part of South America will be in a warmer-than-normal condition.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, Russia, southern India, Far East (including Japan), and U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while North Africa, Middle East, northern India, Southeast Asia, and Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition. Japan, southern China, Taiwan, India, West Africa, Central Africa, and eastern Australia will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while South Africa and a northern part of Brazil, and Mexico will be in a wetter-than-normal state as a seasonal average.
However, we must be careful about the above seasonal averaged view because of intraseasonal variations. In March, for example, we expect a colder-than normal condition in China and western Australia.

January 26, 2014 (notes updated January 27, 2014)
ENSO forecast: We expect El Nino will start evolving in late boreal spring and reach its height in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: We find a bifurcation in the prediction plume. One is a neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean; another is a weak positive IOD event starting in early boreal summer of 2014.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, as a seasonally averaged view, South Africa, western Australia, and eastern Brazil will experience colder-than-normal condition in the austral fall, while central Africa, eastern Australia, and a western part of the South American continent will be in a warmer-than-normal condition.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, Russia, China, Far East (including Japan), Canada, and U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while U.K., Middle East, and India will be in a slightly colder-than-normal condition. Southeast Asia (possibly related to possible evolution of El Nino), Japan, and West Africa will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal spring, while precipitation over South Africa and Australia will be in a normal state as a seasonal average.
However, we must be careful about the above seasonal averaged view. In March, we expect a colder-than normal condition in the Far East. In Australia, we expect a rather wet condition in the western Australia in March but drier-than-normal condition in overall Australia, particularly in the northern part in April. Our skill to predict those intra-seasonal variations need to be improved more.

December 9, 2013
Announcement: This month's forecast will be delayed due to the JAMSTEC computing system shutdown. We apologize for inconvenience. We will update this month's foreacst around the first week of January.

November 20, 2013 (notes updated November 22, 2013)
Attention: This month's prediction is rather different from the last month's, in particular for mid-latitude climate.
ENSO forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Pacific will persist. We expect a weak El Nino-Modoki will appear from the boreal spring of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist at least through the boreal summer of 2014.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere, including South Africa and Australia, will experience warmer-than-normal condition in December 2013.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Europe, Middle East, West Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Canada, Mexico, central-eastern U.S., and Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in December 2013, while most part of China and western U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition in December 2013. However, in January 2014, the situation drastically changes over most of the Eurasian continent and North American continent; we expect a colder-than-normal condition in northern Europe, Russia, China, the Far-East (including Japan), and eastern US.
Australia and western U.S. will be in a drier-than-normal condition, while central Africa, Brazil and eastern U.S. will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal winter.

October 23, 2013 (notes updated October 25, 2013)
Attention: This month's prediction was rather different from the last month's result, in particular for mid-latitude climate.
ENSO forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Pacific will persist through the boreal spring of 2014, then we expect a weak El Nino state will appear from the boreal summer of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist through the boreal summer of 2014.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere, including South Africa and Australia, will experience warmer-than-normal condition in austral summer. In the Northern Hemisphere, West and East Africa, India, Southeast Asia, China, the Far East (including Japan), and eastern U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal winter, while most part of Europe, Middle East, northern Brazil, western U.S. and western Canada will be in a colder-than-normal condition in boreal winter.
East Africa, eastern Brazil, and northern Europe will be in a drier-than-normal condition, while northern Brazil and eastern U.S. will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal winter. The condition in Australia will be rather normal in austral spring and we expect a drier-than-normal condition in austral summer.

September 15, 2013 (notes updated September 19, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will start to decay in boreal fall, and the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal spring. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will continue developing by boreal fall, then it will start to decay. The tropical Indian Ocean will return to a neutral state by boreal winter.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, most part of Brazil and Southern Africa will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral spring. Most part of the Northern Hemisphere, except for southern U.S., Mexico, and U.K., will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal fall. However, in winter, the situation drastically changes over most of the Eurasian continent from Europe to Far East; we expect a below-normal cold condition. The eastern part of Canada and Alaska will also experience a below-normal cold condition in winter.
Most part of southeast Asia, southern China, eastern Africa, and U.S. will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil and western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal fall. The wet condition in northern Brazil will be strengthened in austral summer. The condition in Australia will be rather normal in austral spring and we expect above-normal precipitation in austral summer.

August 20, 2013 (notes updated August 21, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will start to decay through boreal autumn, and the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal winter. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will become clear in boreal autumn, then it will start to decay. The tropical Indian Ocean will return to a neutral state by boreal winter.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia, most part of Brazil, and Southern Africa will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral spring. In the Northern Hemisphere, Canada, western US, and western Africa are expected to experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal autumn. On the other hand, the SINTEX-F model predicts warmer-than-normal autumn in most parts of Russia, Middle East, India, eastern U.S., and Japan. Southeast Asia, southern China, western India, eastern Africa and western US will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil and western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in the coming boreal autumn. The condition in Australia will be rather normal. During the season, however, the Maritime Continent will receive above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events.

July 17, 2013 (notes updated July 24, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will continue through boreal autumn, and then start to decay. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal spring of the next year. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will become clear in late boreal fall. Because of this, rainfall over the Indian subcontinent is expected to be below normal; the weak La Nina condition may reduce the negative impact to some extent.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter. Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in austral winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, Mexico, western Russia, northern Europe, and northeastern China are expected to experience a cooler-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, the SINTEX-F model predicts warmer-than-normal summer in central-eastern Russia, Europe, Middle East, India, Canada, U.S., and Japan. Southeast Asia, India, central Africa, eastern U.S. and Japan will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil, Mexico, western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal summer. During the season, the Maritime Continent will receive above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events.

June 18, 2013 (notes updated June 21, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, weak La Nina condition) will continue through boreal fall, and start to decay from boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop from boreal summer, and reach its peak in early boreal fall. Because of this, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal; the weak La Nina condition might reduce the negative impact to some extent.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter. Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in austral winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, central Canada, Mexico, most part of Russia, and central Europe are expected to experience a cooler-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, the SINTEX-F model predicts warmer-than-normal summer in northern Russia, northern Europe, Middle East, India, and US. Japan will experience warmer-than-normal summer in July 2013, partly due to higher-than-normal pressure off the eastern coast of Japan.
Southern China, central Africa, western India and southern Brazil will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil, Mexico western Africa will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal summer. During the season, the Maritime Continent and parts of Australia will get above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events.

May 21, 2013 (notes updated May 31, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, weak La Nina condition) will continue through boreal fall, and start to decay from boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop from boreal summer, and reach its peak in early boreal fall. Because of this, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal; the weak La Nina condition might reduce the negative impact to some extent.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter.
Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal condition in austral winter.
In the Northern Hemisphere, central Canada, southern Russia, and the Far East are expected to experience a cooler-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, SINTEX-F predicts warmer-than-normal summer in northern Russia, most part of Europe, India, central and eastern US.
Most part of US and southern Brazil will be in a drier-than-normal condition while northern Brazil and Mexico will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in boreal summer. During the season, the Maritime Continent and parts of Australia will get above normal rain due to negative IOD and weak La Nina events. The SINTEX-F predicts less rain during the rainy (Baiu) season in the Far East partly due to the active convection locked to the Maritime Continent region. Stronger-than-normal Okhotsk High may be the direct reason.

April 18, 2013 (notes updated April 22, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, weak La Nina condition) will continue through boreal autumn, and start to decay from boreal winter. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event will develop from boreal spring, and have a maximum peak in boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder-than-normal condition in austral winter. Southern Africa will be in a warmer-than-normal in austral winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, most part of Canada, western Russia, northeastern Europe, and northern China will be in a colder-than-normal condition in boreal summer. On the other hand, we predict warmer-than-normal climate in most part of Russia, western Europe, India, US, and Japan in boreal summer. Most part of US, India, southern Brazil will be in a drier-than-normal condition in late boreal spring, while northern Brazil, southeastern Asia will be in a wetter-than-normal condition in late boreal spring. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall will be smaller-than-normal partly due to a development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event. Northern Brazil, central Africa, Korea, and Japan will have less precipitation in boreal summer.

March 21, 2013 (notes updated April 4, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue through boreal autumn.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event will develop from boreal summer and have a maximum peak in boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: In the southern hemisphere, Australia and most part of Brazil will be in a colder than normal condition in austral autumn. Southern Africa will be in a neutral state in austral autumn. In the northern hemisphere, western Canada, northwestern US, and southeast Asia will be in a colder than normal condition in boreal spring. On the other hand, we predict warmer-than-normal climate in most part of Russia, Europe, India, central-eastern US, and Far East in coming boreal spring. Southern China, central US, central Asia, Middle East, and Europe will have less precipitation in boreal spring. In boreal summer, central Africa will be in a drier than normal condition, while southeastern Asia will be in a wetter than normal condition due to a development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode event.

February 21, 2013 (notes updated March 7, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue evolving this boreal winter but will start decaying in coming boreal spring. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral state in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal fall.
Regional forecast: In the southern hemisphere, southern Africa, Australia, and northern Brazil will be in a colder and wetter than normal condition in austral autumn. In the northern hemisphere, western Canada, northwestern US, Southeast Asia, and Far East will be in a colder than normal condition in boreal spring. On the other hand, we predict warmer-than-normal climate in most part of Russia, Europe, India, and central-eastern US in coming boreal spring. Southern China, southern Japan, and central US will have less rain in boreal spring.

January 21, 2013 (notes updated January 28, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue evolving in boreal winter but will start decaying in coming boreal spring. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal fall. Weak warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean will develop in next boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil and eastern-central Australia will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. Southern Africa will be in a warmer than normal condition in austral autumn.
In the Northern Hemisphere, northern Canada, eastern US, India, and southeast Asia will have a warm winter. On the other hand, we predict colder-than-normal climate in western Europe, western US, and Far East this boreal winter. Most part of the world, except for western Canada, western US, and northern Brazil, will experience warmer-than-normal climate next boreal spring.

December 19, 2012
ENSO forecast: The tropical Pacific condition will be in a neutral state up to boreal spring. We, however, predict sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific will increase next boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: Weak basin-wide warming in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal summer.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil, southern Africa, and eastern Australia will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. In the Northern Hemisphere, northern Canada, India, Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia will have a warm winter. On the other hand, we predict colder-than-normal climate in western Europe, US, and Far East this boreal winter. Western Europe, US, Australia, East Africa, and India will experience warmer-than-normal climate next boreal spring.

November 16, 2012 (notes updated December 12, 2012)
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the central Pacific will persist at least through the next boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast: Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist through the next boreal summer. This may be due to the atmospheric influence (capacitor effect) from the Pacific El Niño-like condition.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil, southern Africa, eastern and western Australia, will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons.
Western Europe, eastern US, southern Canada, and Japan will experience colder-than-normal in boreal winter. We, however, predict warmer-than-normal climate in the central Russia, northern Canada, Indian subcontinent and southeast Asia. Above-normal precipitation (partly snow) would occur in southern China and Japan this winter.

October 16, 2012
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño-like condition) is decaying and will disappear in boreal winter. The tropical Pacific condition will be in a neutral state next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: Present positive Indian Ocean Dipole will be over by boreal winter. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist during the next year. A moderate negative Indian Ocean Dipole might occur in early summer next year.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, east of Brazil will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. Europe, US, and southern Canada will experience colder-than-normal in boreal winter. We, however, expect warmer-than-normal climate in the central Russia, northern Canada, Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. We expect an above-normal wet condition in southern China and Japan this winter.

September 24, 2012
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño-like condition) will stay but start to decay in boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast: The eastern Indian Ocean will be in a colder-than-normal condition due to occurrence of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole until late boreal autumn. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist at least through the next boreal spring. This may be due to the atmospheric influence (capacitor effect) from the Pacific El Niño-like condition.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate from austral spring to summer. In particular, many parts of Australia and Brazil will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in coming austral summer. The Far East will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal autumn. This seems to be related to the atmospheric influence from the positive Indian Ocean Dipole condition. Northern Eurasia, northern Canada, Europe, and India will also experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal winter. However, we expect colder-than-normal climate in the western Asia, eastern China, northern Africa, and US.

August 21, 2012
ENSO forecast: Current warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern tropical Pacific (almost like El Niño condition) will stay until boreal winter and start to decay in spring.
Indian Ocean forecast: The eastern Indian Ocean will be in almost neutral condition at least until boreal spring. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean, particularly in the east, will persist at least until boreal spring. This may be due to the atmospheric influence (capacitor effect) from the Pacific El Nino-like condition.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate from austral spring to summer. In particular, many parts of Australia are likely to suffer from a warmer and drier than normal condition in coming austral summer. In northern Eurasia, Canada, northern US, and India, it will be warmer-than-normal in boreal winter, while it will be colder-than-normal in the central Asia, China, and northern Africa. The Far East will also experience colder-than-normal climate in boreal winter, although the El Nino-like condition is likely to develop during the period. This seems to be related to strengthening of the Aleutian Low in response to the El Nino-like condition. We also expect a relatively wetter condition in the Far East from boreal fall to winter.

July 20, 2012
ENSO forecast: A warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern tropical Pacific (almost El Niño condition) will continue for next several months until boreal winter. Since the low-level winds do not show the typical ocean-atmosphere coupled nature of El Niño, it is too early to declare the onset of El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast: Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern Indian Ocean will persist through boreal winter. This oceanic condition is similar to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode. However, the signal is relatively weak.
Regional forecast: Most part of the globe except Canada, Alaska, China and northern Australia will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer.In boreal winter, it will be colder-than-normal in the central Asia, China, Far East and North America. Most part of Africa will have warmer-than-normal climate in boreal fall. We expect a relatively wet condition in the Far East in boreal fall to winter. Warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue in East Africa and India from boreal summer to fall possibly owing to the negative IOD. West Africa and Brazil will be relatively wetter than normal in austral spring.

June 14, 2012 (notes updated June 19, 2012)
ENSO forecast: Although there is still a warm sea surface temperature anomaly near the eastern boundary of the basin, it will disappear by boreal fall and the neutral state will come back. It will continue at least until spring of the next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop in boreal summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Most parts of the globe except Canada, Alaska, and Australia will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer. In boreal winter, it will be colder-than-normal in most parts of Eurasian continent.
Most part of Africa will have warmer-than-normal climate in borealfall.
Northeast China, Korea, and Japan will have relatively less rain in Baiu/Meiu/Chagma season; this may be due to the evolution of the negative IOD and related suppressed convective activities (dry conditions) over the Indo-China Peninisula. Persistence of the abnormally strong Okhotsk high may be also responsible for this.
We are afraid that warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue in East Africa and India from boreal summer to fall owing to the negative IOD.
Australia and Brazil will be relatively colder and wetter than normal in austral spring.

May 21, 2012 (notes updated May 27, 2012)
ENSO forecast: The tropical Pacific condition has almost returned to a neutral state, although there is a warming signal of sea surface temperature near the eastern boundary of the basin. The neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: European countries and Middle America will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer. In boreal fall and winter, however, it will be colder-than-normal in most of the Eurasian continent and US. Japan will have relatively less rain in Baiu/Meiu season, and a normal summer temperature; this may be due to the evolution of the negative IOD and related suppressed convective activities (dry conditions) over the Indo-China Peninsula. We are afraid that very dry conditions are expected in India and East Africa in boreal fall, also due to the negative IOD. Australia and Brazil will be colder and wetter than normal during September-November.

April 13, 2012 (notes updated April 16, 2012)
ENSO forecast: The tropical Pacific condition is now in a neutral state. This neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Most of the Eurasian continent including Mediterranean countries will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal summer. We expect a normal summer in the Far East. In boreal fall and winter, however, it will be colder-than-normal in most of the Eurasian continent and US. Japan, Korea China will have relatively less rain in Meiu season. Dry conditions are expected in East Africa in boreal fall. Australia will experience rather normal rain in austral winter and fall, but less rain in austral summer.

March 19, 2012 (notes updated March 22, 2012)
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina-type condition is decaying rapidly. The tropical Pacific condition will be back to a neutral state by summer. This neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast: Sea surface temperature in the northern Indian Ocean will be colder-than-normal up to fall. A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Most of the Eurasian continent and US will experience warmer-than-normal climate in spring. In boreal summer, however, it will be colder-than-normal in many parts of the globe. Japan, Korea China will have relatively less rain in Meiu season. Wet conditions are expected in Australia in austral fall and winter. In contrast, dry conditions are expected in southern Africa, southern Brazil in austral fall and winter.

February 20, 2012 (notes updated February 28, 2012)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition continues in the boreal winter of 2012 but it will start decaying from the spring of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer of 2012 and then peak in boreal fall. The negative IOD would bring more rainfall over Indonesia. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Large areas of Eurasia and USA will experience warmer-than-normal climate in boreal spring. Australia and northern Brazil would have colder-than-normal and wet climate during March-May. Eastern China and southern Japan will experience a weaker-than-normal Meiyu-Baiu season in early boreal summer of 2012. Indian sub-continent is expected to experience a weaker summer monsoon.

January 18, 2012 (notes updated January 21, 2012)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition continues in the boreal winter and spring of 2012 but it will start decaying from the summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer of 2012 and then peak in boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina condition, colder-than-normal condition will continue over many parts of the world in following seasons. Whereas, the northern Eurasia and USA will experience the warmer-than-normal climate in boreal spring. Japan will experience the warmer-than-normal condition in spring. This seems to be due to influences from the anomalous high simulated over the northern North Pacific in response to La Nina. Eastern China and southern Japan will experience a weaker-than-normal Meiyu-Baiu season in early boreal summer of 2012.
Associated with the negative IOD, the austral winter rains over Indonesia and Australia are expected to be above normal. However, Indian sub-continent is expected to experience a weaker summer monsoon.

December 21, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition would peak in the boreal winter of 2012 and then start decaying.
Indian Ocean forecast: A neutral condition would continue in boreal winter of 2012. A weak negative IOD would occur in early summer of the 2012. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. The warm anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would disappear by boreal spring season.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina condition,cool-wet condition would occur in Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe in following seasons. Whereas, the northern Eurasia and USA would experience the warmer-than-normal climate in boreal winter and spring. It would be colder than normal in eastern China in coming winter. In contrast to our empirical expectation, Japan would experience the warmer-than-normal condition in winter and spring. This seems to be due to influences from the anomalous high simulated over the northern North Pacific in response to La Nina.

November 20, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition would continue to grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and spring and start decaying in boreal summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: Indian Ocean came back to the neutral condition in October. The neutral condition would continue in boreal winter of 2012. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal spring season. A weak negative IOD would occur in early summer of 2012.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except for the northern Eurasia and USA in following seasons. It would be colder than normal in Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) in coming winter.

October 14, 2011 (notes updated October 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition has been growing as we predicted. The La Nina condition would continue to grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and spring and start decaying in boreal summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD would stay during this boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal spring season.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in the southern Africa, Australia, Brazil, and India in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except for the northern Eurasia and eastern USA in following seasons. It would be colder than normal in Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) in coming winter.

September 17, 2011
ENSO forecast: A La Nina condition has begun; this has been correctly forecast since many months ago. The La Nina condition would grow in following months, peak in the boreal winter and decay in boreal spring-summer of 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD would stay during this boreal fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons. Tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease in following boreal winter and spring seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the developing La Nina condition, cool-wet condition would occur in the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil in following seasons. The La Nina would also help to decrease the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. During this boreal fall, wet/flooding condition would occur in Indonesia, India, and the eastern Africa. Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) would have warm/wet condition in this fall season and colder weather in winter.

August 12, 2011 (notes updated August 21, 2011)
ENSO forecast: A La Nina Modoki-like condition will persist for a while; this has been correctly forecast since many months ago. Eventually, La Nina condition would come back late this year and persist during the whole 2012.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak positive IOD will stay during boreal fall of 2011. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Associated with the returning La Nina condition, cool-wet condition will be observed in the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil in following austral spring and summer. The La Nina will also help to reduce the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. Wet/flooding condition will be realized in Indonesia, India, the eastern Africa. A fall rain (shurin) front will be active in eastern China, Korea and western Japan.

July 14, 2011
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has finished during the last month. Consistent with previous forecasts, our model again shows that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist out to 2012.
IO forecast: A weak positive IOD would occur in August to November 2011; this may be related to current subsurface cooling condition in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature would persist west of Australia in following seasons.
Regional forecast: Cool-wet condition in southern Africa would return back late austral spring. Many parts of Australia would have wet-cool condition during late austral spring to summer. Southeastern China-western Japan would have a dry condition in August but with above-normal Akisame (autumn rain) in September. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding during late summer to fall associated with the influence of La Nina and positive IOD.

June 14, 2011 (notes updated June 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has decayed during the past months and showed a Modoki-type pattern. Although the possibility of an El Nino development cannot be excluded (if surface westerly wind bursts in the equatorial western Pacific would happen in following months), our model forecasts continuously show that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: Large uncertainty exists for the IOD forecasts; neither strong positive IOD nor strong negative IOD would occur this year. Warmer seas surface temperature would persist west of Australia.
Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter but weaken in spring. Most of Australia would have a dry austral winter and normal spring. Japan would have a dry condition in July-August 2011; seasonal mean temperature would be almost normal this summer but with strong intraseasonal fluctuations. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in July-August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding associated with the La Nina influence.

May 11, 2011 (notes updated May 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current weakening La Nina signal would decay further in following months. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki pattern. However, the La Nina condition would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: During boreal summer-fall of 2011, a weak positive IOD would possibly happen (despite of the La Nina) but with uncertainty.
Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter-spring seasons. While most of Australia would have a warm/dry austral winter but a wet/cool spring. Japan would have slightly above-normal Baiyu precipitation in June but dry condition in July-August 2011; temperature would be almost normal. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in following summer. Most of India would have good rains associated with the La Nina influence.

April 13, 2011 (notes updated April 17, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina signal has weakened rapidly in March 2011 and would decay further in following months. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki-type pattern. However, the cold La Nina condition might rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: During boreal summer-fall of 2011, a weak negative IOD might occur with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast: The wet condition in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa, due to the La Nina influence, would weaken in following austral winter but might return back in austral spring. Associated with the La Nina-related cyclonic circulation anomalies east of the Philippines, dry condition would occur from the southeastern China to southern Japan during the boreal spring, followed by slightly above normal Meiyu-Baiyu precipitation in June and normally hot but drier summer condition in 2011.

March 8, 2011 (notes updated March 23, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina has started to weaken and would decay further in following boreal spring and summer seasons. The decaying La Nina would show a Modoki pattern. The cold La Nina condition might rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012.
IO forecast: Cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and warm anomalies along the west coast of Australia, in association with the La Nina impact, would persist in the following season. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD would occur with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.
Regional forecast: The flooding condition in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa, due to the La Nina influence, tend to weaken but persist in boreal spring. Southeastern China, southwestern Japan, US and Europe would have warm and dry condition during boreal spring-summer seasons. While, Northeastern China, Korea, and northern Japan would have relatively cool and wet spring-summer seasons.

February 14, 2011 (notes updated February 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would decay in following boreal spring and summer seasons but would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012. The revived one would show a La Nina of Modoki nature
IO forecast: Associated with the La Nina impact, the surface temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean has become colder than normal in January 2011. The tropical Indian Ocean surface temperature would decrease further in following seasons but with strong warming along the west coast of Australia. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD might tend to occur.
Regional forecast: Associated with the La Nina influence, below-normal surface air temperature and above-normal precipitation would continue in Australia, northern Brazil, and southern Africa during the austral fall-winter. Southeastern China,southwestern Japan, US and Europe would have warmer-than-normal and dry climate during spring-summer seasons.

January 17, 2011 (notes updated January 19, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition has reached its peak and we expect it will gradually decay. Since the present La Nina is rather strong, it will take about a year to disappear completely.
IO forecast: The negative IOD condition has finished. Associated with the La Nina impact, the surface temperature in major parts of the tropical Indian Ocean (except the western coast of Australia) will be below normal up to the early summer in early 2011; this is quite a contrast to the case in 2010. In the second half of 2011, a weak negative IOD may occur again.
Regional forecast: Associated with the strong La Nina, the global mean surface air temperature decreased last month and severe cold stormy weather happened in northern Eurasia and parts of North America. We expect that the surface air temperature in Eurasia,East Asia northern North America, Australia, Brazil, and Africa will be below normal in following months. There is a possibility that more precipitation/floods will occur in Australia, South Africa, and northeastern Brazil in early 2011. East China, Korea and western Japan will have a hot summer with less precipitation in 2011 because of the persistent La Nina impact.

December 13, 2010
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would have reached its peak intensity and decay in following seasons. This La Nina event might be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: The current negative IOD condition (a clear dipole pattern is seen in rainfall anomaly field) would finish soon. During the first half of 2011, due to this La Nina's influence, sea surface temperature in many parts of the tropical Indian Ocean would be colder-than-normal except a large warming near the west coast of Australia.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would decrease in the following seasons. Whereas, southeastern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate in association with the well-known negative PNA atmospheric teleconnection. Parts of northeastern Asia (including Japan) might have warmer-than-normal winter. Above-normal precipitation would occur in Australia, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries.

November 11, 2010 (notes updated November 22, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would continue to grow and reach its peak strength in following months. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A negative IOD condition with a clear dipole pattern of rainfall anomaly is occurring and would persist till the end of 2010. During the first half of 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur in the tropical Indian Ocean. In boreal summer and fall of 2011, a weak negative IOD condition would probably occur again.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be colder-than-normal in the following boreal winter and spring seasons. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent and southeastern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate. Surface temperature over Japan would be near normal in winter but warmer-than-normal in spring. Above-normal precipitation would occur in South Africa, Australia, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries. Cold stormy weather might occur in southeastern China, along the Japan Sea coastal regions of Japan, and northern North America in early 2011.

October 15, 2010 (notes updated October 18, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strengthening La Nina condition would continue to grow and become a very strong cold event in following months. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A negative IOD condition is occurring and would persist till the end of 2010. During the first half of 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur in the tropical Indian Ocean.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be colder-than-normal in the following boreal winter and spring seasons. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and southern North America would experience warmer-than-normal climate. Above-normal precipitation would occur in South Africa, Australia, northeastern Brazil, and southern Asian countries. Associated with the persisting warm sea surface temperature around Japan, warm and wet (probably more snow along the Japan Sea coast) condition would occur over large parts of Japan during this boreal winter.

September 10, 2010 (notes updated September 13, 2010)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would continue to grow and reach a peak phase in following boreal winter. This La Nina event would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: A weak negative IOD would occur in the boreal fall because of the influence of this strong La Nina. In early 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina influence, more rainfalls would occur in the eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern South America, Australia, and India in this fall season. South Africa, Australia, and northeastern Brazil would have cool and flooding austral summer. Current warmer-than-normal condition in Japan would persist in following months. During the boreal winter, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below-than-normal. Whereas, northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and southeastern North America would experience a warm winter.

August 18, 2010
ENSO forecast: The La Nina condition has continued to develop quickly in July 2010. A fairly strong cold event would occur in following months and peak around the end of 2010. This La Nina condition would be long-lasting and persist till early 2012.
IO forecast: Basin-wide sea surface temperature warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean would persist up to the end of 2010. In early 2011, basin-wide cooling except a warming near the west coast of Australia would occur due to the La Nina influence.
Others: Associated with this strong La Nina influence, more rainfalls would occur in the eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern South America, Australia, and India in following boreal fall and winter seasons. During the winter, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below-than-normal. Whereas, the Europe, northern Eurasian continent and southeastern North America would experience a warm winter. Heavy snowfall might occur in the Japanese coastal region facing the Sea of Japan in coming winter.

July 16, 2010 (notes updated July 19, 2010)
ENSO forecast: La Nina condition has developed quickly in June 2010. A fairly strong cold event would occur in following months. This La Nina condition might last for a longer-than-normal period (i.e., more than one year).
IO forecast: Basin-wide sea surface temperature warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean would persist up to the end of 2010. In early 2011, a basin-wide cooling would occur due to the La Nina influence.
Others: In August 2010, the stronger Meiyu-Baiyu rainfall front which has caused more rains or floods in the southeastern China and southern Japan over the past month would migrate northward. This would lead to more rains/floods in the northeastern China but hot-dry summer in southeastern China and southern Japan. This is related to an anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Indonesia, northern South America, East Africa, and India would experience more rains in following fall and winter seasons. Many parts of Australia might experience more rains from late 2010 (October) to early 2011. During the next boreal winter, many parts of the globe would experience colder-than-normal weather associated with the strong La Nina influence.

June 14, 2010 (notes updated June 17, 2010)
ENSO forecast: La Nina condition has started to appear. A fairly strong La Nina condition would rapidly develop in boreal summer and continue developing up to early next year.
IO forecast: There is large uncertainty for IOD forecast; the ensemble spread is very large. Basin-wide warming structure in the tropical Indian Ocean might persist in following boreal summer and fall seasons.
Others: In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation and lower-than-normal temperature would appear in eastern Asia. We expect a stronger-than-normal Baiu and Akisame (autumn rain) seasons. This is related to an anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Indonesia, southeast Asia and parts of Australia would experience more rains because of the la Nina condition. Northeast Brazil, East Africa, and India would experience more rains because of nearby high sea surface temperature.

May 13, 2010 (notes updated May 17, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current Modoki-type El Nino has already ended in early May. A fairly strong La Nina condition would rapidly develop in boreal summer.
IO forecast: A very weak positive IOD would happen in following summer and fall, probably triggered by existing colder-than-normal subsurface temperature in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. However, the forecast plume is so spread and we are not certain of this averaged forecast at this stage.
Others: In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation and lower-than-normal temperature would appear in eastern Asia with a stronger-than-normal Meiyu-Baiyu season. Indonesia, parts of Australia, Northeast Brazil, East Africa, and India would experience more rains or floods.

April 15, 2010 (notes updated April 16, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current Modoki-type El Nino would end soon in the following months. A fairly strong La Nina condition would develop in boreal summer.
IO forecast: Basin-wide warming would continue in the tropical Indian Ocean until following summer. A negative IOD would happen in Sep-Nov 2010 associated with the La Nina development.
Others: Warmer-than-normal climate associated with current El Nino would decay after boreal summer over many parts of the globe, particularly in Northern Hemisphere continents and Australia, due to the influence of La Nina development. In boreal summer and fall, more precipitation would appear in eastern Asia with a strong Meiyu-Baiyu season. Indonesia, Australia, Northeast Brazil, and India would also experience more rains or floods. Current severe drought disaster in southeastern China might be slightly reduced in following months.

March 21, 2010 (notes updated March 23, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would end soon in the following months. A fairly strong La Nina condition would develop in boreal summer.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following spring and summer. There is a tendency of a negative IOD to happen in Sep-Nov 2010 associated with the La Nina development.
Others: Associated with the current El Nino influence, warmer climate would appear in following spring over many parts of the globe except the southeastern North America, Europe, and eastern Asia. In boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in southeastern China-western Japan related to the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Eastern Australia would have more precipitation than normal during May to August 2010. India would have good summer monsoon.

February 16, 2010 (notes updated February 18, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would decay quickly in the following season. A La Nina condition would appear after summer.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following spring and summer. There is a tendency of a weak positive IOD to happen in Sep-Nov 2010.
Others: Associated with the current El Nino influence, warmer climate would appear in following spring over many parts of the globe except the southeastern North America, Europe, and eastern China. In boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in southeastern China-western Japan related to the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Eastern Australia might have more precipitation than normal during May to August 2010.

January 18, 2010 (notes updated January 19, 2010)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific would decay quickly in following months. A La Nina condition would appear late this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino influence.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following months and spring season over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except that colder conditions would occur in the southeastern North America and northeastern Eurasia. Large parts of Australia, South Africa and northeastern Brazil would suffer from a warmer and dry condition. During boreal spring and summer, more precipitation would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines. Northern and eastern coastal areas of Australia might have more precipitation than normal during June-August.

December 16, 2009 (notes updated December 18, 2009)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacific grew last month and reached a magnitude of 1.5C in Nino3.4 region. It would reach its peak phase during Dec 2009 - Feb 2010, and then decay quickly in next boreal spring.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the tropical Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino influence.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following winter and spring seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern North America. Large parts of Australia, South Africa and northeastern Brazil would suffer from a hot and dry condition. Warmer winter would appear in East Asia associated with an eastward shift of the Aleutian Low. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines.

November 16, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino with major warming in the central Pacfic would grow slightly in following months, reaching an intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino evolution.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following winter and spring seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern North America. Large parts of Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone near the Philippines.

October 19, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino would grow slightly in following months, reaching an intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming (except a cooling west of Australia) would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino evolution.
Others: Warmer climate would appear in following seasons over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southern North America and mid-latitude Eurasia. Large parts of Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition. More precipitation (or snowfall) would appear in eastern China-Japan in association with the development of a lower troposphere anticyclone east of the Philippines.

September 14, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino condition would grow slightly in following months, reaching a weak-to-intermediate intensity end of this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons associated with the El Nino development. A local warming would appear west of Sumatra-Java in Sep-Nov 2009, bringing more rainfall over that region.
Others: Warmer climate would appear during Dec-Feb over most parts of the globe related to the El Nino influence except the southeastern area of North America. The negative IOD-like rainfall in Sep-Nov 2009 might help to increase precipitation in some parts of Australia. In Dec-Feb, however, Australia would suffer from a hot and dry condition.

August 14, 2009 (notes updated August 19, 2009)
ENSO forecast: Current El Nino condition will keep growing in following months, reaching an intermediate-to-strong El Nino late in this year.
IOD forecast: Basin-wide warming would appear in the Indian Ocean in following seasons possibly associated with the El Nino development in the Pacific. A local warming would appear west of Sumatra in Sep-Nov 2009, resembling a negative IOD condition.
(*) The current cool condition in the Far East would persist in the following season. Warmer than normal condition would appear during Dec-Feb in most part of the globe related to the El Nino influence. Australia would suffer from a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following two seasons.

July 17, 2009 (notes updated July 28, 2009)
1) The SST warming is the most prominent in the central tropical Pacific. It is more like El Nino Modoki (or Dateline El Nino) rather than conventional El Nino. Also, we notice that the warming anomaly spans almost all tropical Pacific. The anomalous condition is seen at least up to the early summer next year.
2) The SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean shows basin-wide warming.

* The surface temperature near Japan shows negative anomalies in fall and southern Japan is expected to receive higher than normal rainfall.
* The surface temperature in the central and eastern US shows consistent negative anomalies at least up to next late spring. Precipitation anomaly over northern parts of West Coast will be drier whereas the southern parts are expected to get normal to above normal rainfall.
* The surface temperature anomaly in Australia is positive up to at least next Apr-May. The precipitation anomaly is negative or close to normal. Most parts of eastern Australia are expected to be drier in Sep-Nov with a chance of revival of normal rainfall in Dec-Feb.

June 12, 2009
ENSO forecast: A strong El Nino would occur.
IOD forecast: A weak positive IOD would appear, probably in response to the strong El Nino.
Related with the strong El Nino and weak positive IOD, Australia would have dry and warm austral winter and spring. India would have poor summer monsoon.
Note: Certain uncertanties may arise from the renewing of Earth Simulator. El Nino prediction appears to be underestimated.

May 15, 2009
ENSO forecast: The probability to have an El Nino late this year is increasing.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would occur during boreal summer and fall.
Related with the negative IOD during summer-fall, Australia would have good rain. Eastern China-western Japan and Europe might be cooler than normal. India would have poor summer monsoon (less rainfall).
Note: Certain biases may arise from the renewing of Earth Simulator. In particular, El Nino signal appears to be underestimated according to our preliminary check.

April 20, 2009
ENSO forecast: La Nina is ending. There is possibility of El Nino late this year.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would occur during boreal summer and fall.
Because of negative IOD, southeastern Australia would have good rain in boreal fall.
Note: The super-computer "Earth Simulator" was renewed this month. Please be careful that additional uncertainty for the forecasts may exist.

March 13, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina would continue to persist surprisingly.
IOD forecast: Negative IOD would appear in the second half of this year.
Other: Dry condition in mid-China and southeastern Australia would occur during the following spring, but might finish in boreal summer.

February 13, 2009
ENSO forecast: Current La Nina would decay soon during the following spring and summer. An intermediate-to-strong El Nino might happen late this year.
IOD forecast: It is still too early to say. Both positive and negative IOD have equal probability of occurrence.
Other: Current drought disaster in mid-China would become worse because of the possible warm and dry condition during the following spring season. And the drought in southeast Australia might persist too.

January 19, 2009
Surface air temperature anomalies over the globe in February 2009 would be similar to those during typical La Nina year. In particular, East China-western Japan and northern North America would be colder than normal.

December 15, 2008
La Nina would develop in next seasons and might last until early 2010.

November 15, 2008
East Asia would experience colder weather in January-February 2009. Southeastern China would again have cold stormy weather, probably worse than what happened early 2008.

June 2008
A strong positive IOD would appear this summer and fall. This would be the third event just after the 2006 and 2007 episodes. This event might cause extreme climate anomalies in broad areas."

May 2007
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to develop in late summer of 2007. In the Pacific, a La Nina condition is forecast. This a rare combination. Good Indian Summer Monsoon, hot summer in the East Asia, and dry boreal winter in Australia might be expected.

2006
The positive IOD in summer and fall of 2006 has been constantly forecast from different initial conditions since 1 November 2005. The overall situation in Indo-Pacific sector looks similar to that in 1994.