テーマA：直面する地球環境変動の予測と診断

2016年度

2015年度

2014年度

2013年度

2012年度

2016年度

（ i ）直面する気候変動に関する要因の特定とメカニズムの解明

（a）年々変動～30年程度を対象とした近未来気候変動予測研究

＜論文発表＞

Angélil O., S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L. V. Alexander, D. Stone, M. G. Donat, M. Wehner, H. Shiogama, A. Ciavarella, N. Christidis (2016): Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products. Weather and Climate Extremes, 13, 35-43.
Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Eade, R., 2016: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751-3777, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016.
Chikamoto, Y., T. Mochizuki, A. Timmermann, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7143-7151, doi:10.1002/2016GL069544.
Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D., and Tebaldi, C.: The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685-3697, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016.
Good, P., Andrews, T., Chadwick, R., Dufresne, J.-L., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., Schaller, N., and Shiogama, H. (2016): nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4019-4028, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016.
Ham, Y.-G., Y. Chikamoto, J.-S. Kug, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, 2016: Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3474-z.
Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2016: Asymmetry of westerly and easterly wind events: Observational evidence. SOLA, 12, 42-45, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-009.
Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2017: Importance of background seasonality over the eastern equatorial Pacific in a coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events. Clim. Dyn., in press.
Hourdin, F., M. Thorsten, A. Getellman, J.-C. Golaz, V. Balaji, Q. Duan, D. Folini, D. Ji, D. Klocke, Y. Qian, F. Rauser, C. Rio, L. Tomassini, M. Watanabe, and D. Williamson, 2016: The art and science of climate model tuning. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1.
Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, O. Arakawa, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2016: Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3350-x.
Kamae, Y., T. Ogura, M. Watanabe, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2016: Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate. J. Geophys. Res., 121, 2593-2609, doi:10.1002/2015JD024525/abstract
Lawal KA, Abatan AA, Angélil O, Olaniyan E, Olusoji V. H., Oguntunde P. G., Lamptey B., Abiodun B. J., Shiogama H., Wehner M. F., Stone D. A. (2016): The Late Onset of the 2015 Wet Season in Nigeria, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (12), S63–S69. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0131.1.
Liu, X., A. Kohl, D. Stammer, S. Masuda, Y. Ishikawa, T. Mochizuki, 2016: Impact of in-consistency between the climate model and its initial conditions on climate prediction, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3194-4.
Mitchell, D., AchutaRao, K., Allen, M., Bethke, I., Forster, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Gillett, N., Haustein, K., Iverson, T., Massey, N., Schleussner, C.-F., Scinocca, J., Seland, Ø., Shiogama, H., Shuckburgh, E., Sparrow, S., Stone, D., Wallom, D., Wehner, M., and Zaaboul, R. (2017): Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI): Background and Experimental Design. Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 571–583, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017.
Mitchell D., James R., Forster P.M., Betts R.A., Shiogama H., Allen M.R. (2016): Realizing the impacts of a 1.5˚C warmer world. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3055.
Mizuta, R., A. Murata, M. Ishii, H. Shiogama, K. Hibino, N. Mori, O. Arakawa, Y. Imada, K. Yoshida, T. Aoyagi, H. Kawase, M. Mori, Y. Okada, T. Shimura, T. Nagatomo, M. Ikeda, H. Endo, M. Nosaka, M. Arai, C. Takahashi, K. Tanaka, T. Takemi, Y. Tachikawa, K. Temur, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, H. Sasaki, A. Kitoh, I. Takayabu, E. Nakakita, and M. Kimoto, 2017: Over 5000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60 km global and 20 km regional atmospheric models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, Y. Chikamoto, M. Ishii, 2016: Interbasin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2016GL069940.
Mochizuki, T., S. Masuda, Y. Ishikawa, T. Awaji, 2016: Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2016GL067895.
Nasuno, T., H. Yamada, M. Nakano, H. Kubota, M. Sawada, R. Yoshida, 2016: Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008), Geosci. Lett., doi 10.1186/s40562-016-0064-1.
Shiogama, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, R. Mizuta, D. Stone, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, M. Ikeda, C. Takahashi, M. rai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events. SOLA, 12, 225-231. doi:10.2151/sola.2016-045.
Takahashi, C., and M. Watanabe, 2016: Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades. Nature Climate Change, 6, 768-772, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2996.
Takahashi, C., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, and M. Mori, 2016: A persistent Japanese heat wave in early August 2015: Roles of natural variability and human induced warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S107–S112. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0157.1.
Imada, Y., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Mori, M. Arai, H. Tatebe, and Y. Chikamoto, 2016: An overview of a seasonal prediction system by MIROC AOGCM and predictability of two types of El Nino, Mon. Wea. Rev., in press
Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, A. Oka, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and Y. Kamae, 2016: A review of progress towards understanding the transient global mean surface temperature response to radiative perturbation. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 3(21): 1-14. doi:10.1186/s40645-016-0096-3.

＜著書・報文等＞

木本昌秀, 2016: 気候モデルの開発を通した我が国の地球温暖化研究の推進と気候変動にかかわる社会への情報発信. 日本気象学会誌「天気」, 63, 793-801.
熊澤里枝, 筆保弘徳, 久保田尚之, 2016: 1900年から2014年における日本の台風上陸数, 天気, 63, 855-861.
望月崇, 2016: 気候モデルの部分同化実験による大洋間相互作用研究, 月刊海洋, 48, 5, 220-226.
木本昌秀,2017: 気象災害予測のリードタイムを確保するために. 地域防災, 2017年2月号, 4-7.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Kimoto, M., 2017: To realize earlier warning. CREST International Symposium on Big Data Application, 11 January 2017, Akiba Plaza, Tokyo. (invited)
Kimoto, M., 2016: Climate Modeling and Climate Change Studies in Japan. PRIMAVERA 2nd General Assembly, 29 November - 1 December, 2016, KNMI, the Netherlands. (invited)
Kimoto, M., 2016: Climate Modeling and Climate Change Studies in Japan. 2016 CCliCS workshop on earth system modeling, 25-27 October, 2016, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Republic of China. (invited)
Kamae, Y., 2016: Uncertainty in climate sensitivity: Cloud adjustment and feedback -Early Career Researcher Distinguished Lecture-. AOGS 13th Annual Meeting, Beijing, China, 3 August, 2016. (invited)
Mori, M., 2016: Attribution of recent extreme events: a probabilistic approach. 7th Japan-EU Workshop on Climate Change Research, Tokyo, Japan, 26-27 April 2016. (invited)
望月崇, 木本昌秀, 渡部雅浩, 2016: 今世紀初めの10年規模気候変動とその予測の再考, 日本海洋学会2016年度秋季大会, 鹿児島, 2016年9月4日. (invited)
望月崇, 近本喜光, 木本昌秀, 渡部雅浩, 2016: 10年規模の熱帯気候変動における大洋間結合プロセス, 研究集会「続・地球温暖化ハイエイタスと潜在的ブーストに対する海洋熱循環の役割」, 札幌, 2016年8月5日.(invited)
Watanabe, M., 2016: Causes of recent intensification of the Pacific trade winds. Fourth Santa Fe conference on global and regional climate changes. Santa Fe, 5-10 February, 2017. (invited)
Watanabe, M., 2016: Recent intensification of the Pacific trade wind: A possible linkage to Atlantic multidecadal variability. ICTP workshop on teleconnection in the present and future climate, Trieste, 24-28 October, 2016. (invited)
Watanabe, M., 2016: How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? AOGS2016, Beijing, August 4, 2016. (invited)
Watanabe, M., 2016: Attribution of the tropical Pacific climate change over the past two decades. 7th EU-Japan workshop on climate change research, Tokyo, 26-27 April, 2016. (invited)
渡部雅浩, 2016: 近年の気候変化のメカニズムと要因分析. JpGUスペシャルレクチャー, 幕張メッセ, 2016年5月23日. (invited)
石井正好, 2016: 地球温暖化対策に資するアンサンブル気候予測データベース: d4PDF. 第６回地球環境未来都市シンポジウム in 横浜, 横浜みなとみらい２１プレゼンテーションルーム, 2016年12月17日.
今田由紀子 2016: 高解像度 MRI-AGCM アンサンブル実験を用いた日本域の 10 年規模の気温変動に関する要因分析, 2016年度日本気象学会秋季大会, 名古屋, 2016年10月27日
今田由紀子，2016: 高解像度MRI-AGCMアンサンブル実験を用いた日本域の10年規模の気温変動に関する要因分析．平成28年度「東アジア域における大気循環の季節内変動に関する研究集会」，京都大学防災研究所，2016年11月9日
岩崎杉紀, 鴨川仁, 久保田尚之, 石元裕史, 2016: 富士山測候所で観測された積乱雲の雲頂からジャンプする雲, 日本気象学会春季大会,　東京, 2016年5月21日.
Kataoka, T., T. Tozuka, and T. Yamagata, 2016: Generation and decay mechanism of Ningaloo Niño, 2016 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, U.S., 13 Dec. 2016.
Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, O. Arakawa, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2016: Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the recent increase in warm and dry conditions over western North America. AOGS 13th Annual Meeting, Beijing, China, 31 July-5 August, 2016.
Kubota, H., J. Matsumoto, M. Zaiki, M. Ishii, R. Kumazawa, H. Fudeyasu, and I. Akasaka, 2016: Japan Climate Data Project (JCDP)-Data rescue of weather station and tropical cyclone track data along the coast of East and Southeast, The ACRE-CHINA workshop: Recovery, digitization and analysis of pre-mid-20th century climate observational data in East Asia, Beijing, China, 21 Aug. 2016.
Kubota, H., R. Kumazawa and H. Fudeyasu, 2016: Tropical cyclone landfall in Japan during 1900-2014, 32th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 18 Apr. 2016.
Kosaka, Y., S.-P. Xie, H. Kubota, Y. Du, K. Hu, J. Chowdary, G. Huang, 2016: The Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor mode and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Chiba, 24 May 2016.
Matsumoto, J., J.-I. Hamada, T. Inoue, S. Kobayashi, H. Yamamoto, T. Mikami, M. Zaiki, H. Kubota, N. Endo, J. Hirano, K. Tsumura, Y. Nyomura, J. Nishina, M. Ishii, I. Akasaka, 2016: Japan - Data rescue activities in Japan, 9th ACRE workshop, Dublin, Ireland, 20 Jun. 2016.
Matsumoto, J., H. Kubota, S. Kobayashi, H. Yamamoto, N. Endo, J. Hirano, I. Akasaka, M. Zaiki, J.-I. Hamada, T. Inoue, T. Hayashi, and T. Terao, 2016: Data rescue activities in Japan, The ACRE-CHINA workshop: Recovery, digitization and analysis of pre-mid-20th century climate observational data in East Asia, Beijing, China, 21 Aug. 2016.
Mochizuki, T., S. Masuda, Y. Ishikawa, T. Awaji, 2016: Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var coupled data assimilation, International workshop on coupled data assimilation, Toulouse, France, 18 Oct. 2016.
Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, Y. Chikamoto, M. Ishii, 2016: Inter-basin influence of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific decadal climate change, CLIVAR open science conference 2016, Qingdao, China, 21 Sep. 2016.
Mochizuki, T., S. Masuda, Y. Ishikawa, T. Awaji, 2016: Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation, CLIVAR open science conference 2016, Qingdao, China, 20 Sep. 2016.
望月崇, 増田周平, 石川洋一, 淡路敏之, 2016: 四次元変分法結合データ同化システムを用いた数年先までの気候予測, 日本気象学会2016年度春季大会, 東京, 2016年5月19日.
森正人，渡部雅浩，中村尚，木本昌秀，2016: 北極海の海氷減少が冬季中緯度大気循環へ与える影響．研究会「長期予報と大気大循環」，気象庁，2016年12月9日.
森正人，2016: 北極海の海氷変動に対する大気応答と自然変動について．平成28年度「東アジア域における大気循環の季節内変動に関する研究集会」，京都大学防災研究所，2016年11月9日.
森正人，渡部雅浩，木本昌秀，2016: 北極温暖化増幅下での天候レジームの変化．日本地球惑星科学連合2016年大会，幕張，2016年5月26日.
Nasuno, T., H. Yamada, M. Nakano, H. Kubota, M. Sawada and R. Yoshida, 2016: Deepening process of a tropical cyclone simulated using a global nonhydrostatic model, 32th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 21 Apr. 2016.
Nakano, M., H. Kubota, T. Miyakawa, T. Nasuno and M. Satoh, 2016: Modification of MJO and genesis of Supercyclone Pam in March 2015 by the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly, 32th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 21 Apr. 2016.
Shirooka, R., B. Geng, J. Suzuki, H. Kubota, M. Katsumata, T. Nakano, T. Shinoda, H. Uyeda, 2016: Intra-seasonal oscillation and typhoon activity during PALAU intensive observation around the tropical western Pacific, 32th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 22 Apr. 2016.
廣田渚郎, 高薮縁, 濱田篤: CMIP5気候モデルにおける陸上の降水日変動, 日本気象学会, 東京, 2016年5月18日.
廣田渚郎,: 北ユーラシアの降水比較, 極域・寒冷域連絡会, 東京, 2016年5月18日.
小玉知央 (2016),: 高解像度気候シミュレーションの「現場」から, 気象夏の学校2016, 2016年8月7日, 大学セミナーハウス, 八王子

（b）①気候感度に関する不確実性の低減化

＜論文発表＞

Abe, M., T. Nozawa, T. Ogura, and K. Takata 2016: Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, in press.
Kamae, Y., T. Ogura, H. Shiogama, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Recent progress toward reducing the uncertainty in tropical low cloud feedback and climate sensitivity: A review. Geosci. Lett., 3, 17, doi:10.1186/s40562-016-0053-4.
Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Lower tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a multiparameter multiphysics ensemble. J. Climate, 29, 6259-6275, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0042.1.
Tsushima, Y., M. A. Ringer, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, R. Roehrig, J. Cole, M. Watanabe, T. Yokohata, A. Bodas-Salcedo, K. D. Williams, and M. J. Webb 2016: Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming, Climate Dynamics, 46, 9, 3025-3039.
Voigt, A., M. Biasutti, J. Scheff, J. Bader, S. Bordoni, F. Codron, R. D. Dixon, J. Jonas, S. M. Kang, N. P. Klingaman, R. Leung, J. Lu, B. Mapes, E. A. Maroon, S. McDermid, J. Park, R. Roehrig, B. E. J. Rose, G. L. Russell, J. Seo, T. Toniazzo, H.-H. Wei, M. Yoshimori, and L. R. Vargas Zeppetello 2016: The Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8(4): 1868–1891. doi:10.1002/2016MS000748.
Webb, M., T. Andrews, A. Bodas-Salcedo, S. Bony, C. Bretherton, R. Chadwick, H. Chepfer, H. Douville, P. Good, J. Kay, S. Klein, R. Marchand, B. Medeiros, P. Siebesma, C. Skinner, B. Stevens, G. Tselioudis, Y. Tsushima, and M. Watanabe, 2017: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6. Geo. Model. Dev., 10, 359-384, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Can lower-tropospheric mixing constrain cloud feedback and climate sensitivity? A33B-0204, 2016 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 12-16 2016.
小倉知夫, M. J. Webb, 渡部雅浩, F. H. Lambert, 對馬洋子 2016: 雲の速い応答の不確実性と瞬時放射強制力, 日本気象学会春季大会, 東京, 2016年5月19日.
Ogura, T. and M. J. Webb 2016: Radiative heating effect of SST increase in climate feedback, CFMIP/WCRP/ICTP Conference on Cloud Processes, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity, Trieste, Italy, 7 July 2016.
Ogura, T., H. Tatebe, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto 2016: On the systematic errors in cloud simulation by MIROC6, 13th Annual Meeting of Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, Beijing, China, 2 August 2016.
鈴木健太郎, G. Stephens, C. Golaz: 全球平均降雨量の気候変化におけるエアロゾルの寄与, 日本気象学会2016年度春季大会(国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京, 5月19日).
廣田渚郎, 高薮縁, 濱田篤: CMIP5気候モデルにおける陸上の降水日変動 (国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京, 5月18日).
川合秀明, 神代剛: 下層雲に関わる安定度指標と下層雲の将来変化, 日本気象学会春季大会(国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京, 5月19日).
Watanabe, M.: Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate, CFMIP/WCRP/ICTP Conference on Cloud Processes, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (ICTP, Trieste, 5 July).
Watanabe, M.: Two regimes of convective self-aggregation in RCE experiments using the MIROC GCM, CFMIP/WCRP/ICTP Conference on Cloud Processes, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (ICTP, Trieste, 5 July).
Kawai, H.: Indexes and parameters related to low cloud cover and low cloud feedback, CFMIP/WCRP/ICTP Conference on Cloud Processes, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (ICTP, Trieste, 5 July).
Koshiro, T.: Evaluation of relationship between subtropical marine low stratiform cloudiness and estimated inversion strength in CMIP5 AMIP experiments, CFMIP/WCRP/ICTP Conference on Cloud Processes, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (ICTP, Trieste, 4 July).
Ogura, T.: Implementation of COSP in MIROC and its current application, COSP workshop (IPSL, Paris, 27 February).

（b）②気候感度に関する不確実性の低減化に向けた「雲」の予測精度の向上

＜論文発表＞

Chen, Y.-W., Seiki, T., Kodama, C., Satoh, M., Noda, A. T. and Yamada, Y. (2016): High cloud responses to global warming simulated by two different cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), J. Climate, 29(16), 5949-5964, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0668.1.
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fuckar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinsk, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J. and von Storch, J.-S. (2016): High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185-4208, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016.
Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Hagihara, Y., Kato, S., Kubota, T., Matsui, T., Nasuno, T., Okamoto, H., and Sekiguchi, M. (2016): Evaluating Cloud Radiative Effects simulated by NICAM with A-train. J. Geophys. Res., 121, accepted, DOI:10.1002/2016JD024775.
Kikuchi, K., Kodama, C., Nasuno, T., Nakano, M., Miura, H., Satoh, M., Noda, A. T., and Yamada, Y. (2016): Tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated in an AMIP-type experiment by NICAM, Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3219-z.
Noda, A. T., T. Seiki, M. Satoh, and Y. Yamada (2016): High cloud size dependency in the applicability of the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis using global nonhydrostatic simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2307-2314.
Roh, W., Satoh, M., Nasuno, T. (2017): Improvement of a cloud microphysics scheme for a global nonhydrostatic model using TRMM and a satellite simulator. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 167-183.
Satoh, M., Aramaki, K., and Sawada, M. (2016): Structure of tropical convective systems in aqua-planet experiments: Radiative-convective equilibrium versus the Earth-like experiment.SOLA, 12, 220-224. doi:10.2151/sola.2016-044.
Tomassini, L., P. Field, R. Honnert, S. Malardel, R. Cowan, K. Saitou, A. T. Noda, and A. Seifert, (2017): The "Grey Zone" cold air outbreak global model intercomparison: a cross-evaluation using large-eddy simulations. JAMES, doi:10.1002/2016MS000822.

＜著書・報文等＞

小倉知夫, 神代剛, 鈴木健太郎, 清木達也, 川合秀明, 野田暁, 釜江陽一, 渡部雅浩 (2016): 雲フィードバックに関するモデル相互比較プロジェクト(CFMIP)会議2015参加報告, 天気 63, 39-46.
清木達也, 小玉知央, 野田暁, Chen Ying-Wen (2017): ドイツの雲・降水研究プロジェクトHD(CP)2の最終成果報告会UCP2016の参加報告, 天気. (印刷中)
釜江陽一, 氏家将志, 小川史明, 小玉知央, 端野典平, 村上裕之 (2016): 若手研究者６名による海外研究滞在の紹介, 天気, 63, 11, 919-927.
山田広幸, 伊藤耕介, 金田幸恵, 林修吾, 西澤誠也, 宮川知己, 前島康光, 川畑拓矢, 加藤亮平,野田暁, 沢田雅洋, 岩崎俊樹 (2016): 第17回非静力学数値モデルに関する国際ワークショップ開催報告. 天気, 63, 57-62.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Noda, A. T., T. Seiki, M. Satoh, and Y. Yamada (2016): High cloud size dependency in the applicability of the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis using a global non-hydrostatic simulation. Japan Geoscience Union meeting, 22-26 May 2016, Chiba.
Satoh. M. (2016): A super high-resolution global atmospheric simulation by the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model, NICAM. SC16: Salt Lake City, UT, USA, Nov. 13-18, 2016.
Satoh, M. and Ohno, T. (2016): Model hierarchical approaches with NICAM and some ideas for AMIP/APE/RCE inter-comparisons. Model Hierarchies Workshop: Princeton University, New Jersey, USA, 2-4 November 2016.
Satoh, M., Yamada, Y., Sugi, M., Kodama, C., Noda, A. T., Nakano, M., Nasuno, T. (2016): Expansion of Tropical Cyclone Size in a Warming World Simulated by NICAM; Mechanism and Implications. Asia Oceania Geoscience Society 13th Annual Meeting (AOGS2016) July 1 - August 5, 2016.
清木達也、小玉知央、CHEN Ying-Wen、野田暁、佐藤正樹、端野典平、萩原雄一朗、岡本創 (2016): 巻雲の解像と気候影響の理解に向けて：高解像大気大循環モデルの取り組み. 日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会、名古屋、10月26-28日
Chen, Ying-Wen, Tatsuya Seiki, Chihiro Kodama, Masaki Satoh, Akira T. Noda, Yohei Yamada (2016): High cloud responses to global warming simulated by two different cloud microphysics schemes implemented in NICAM, Japan Geosciences Union Meeting.
Chen, Ying-Wen, 清木達也, 小玉知央, 佐藤正樹, 野田暁, 山田洋平 (2016): NICAMを用いた雲放射フィードバックの解析―温暖化応答の雲微物理依存性―,日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会.
Chen, Ying-Wen, Tatsuya Seiki, Chihiro Kodama, Masaki Satoh, Akira T. Noda, Yohei Yamada (2016): High cloud responses to global warming simulated by two different cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), CFMIP/WCRP/ITCP conference on cloud processes, circulation and climate, 2016.07.
Kodama, C. (2016): JMIP activity, Workshop on global precipitation systems, Nov. 29, 2016, Yokohama, Japan.
Kodama, C., Watanabe, S., Nasuno, T., Satoh, M., and Kubokawa, H. (2016）: Basic state and gravity wave simulated by high-top global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model NICAM, SPARC DynVAR Workshop, Jun. 7, 2016, Helsinki, Finland.
Kodama, C., Stevens, B., and Mauritsen, T. (2016),: Future projection of extratropical cyclone simulated by a 14 km mesh global atmospheric model, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, May 23, 2016, Makuhari, Japan.
Kodama, C., Stevens, B., Mauritsen, T., Seiki, T. and Satoh, M. (2016),: Future projection of extratropical cyclone simulated by a 14 km mesh global atmospheric model, The 4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models, Nov. 30 – Dec. 2, 2016, Hakone, Japan.
Kodama, C., Stevens, B., Mauritsen, T., Seiki, T., and Satoh, M. (2016),: Future projection of extratropical cyclone simulated by a 14 km mesh global atmospheric model, CFMIP/WCRP/ICTP Conference on Cloud Processes, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity, Jul. 5, 2016, Trieste, Italy.
小玉知央, Bjorn Stevens, Thorsten Mauritsen, 清木達也, 佐藤正樹, (2016): 14kmメッシュNICAM気候実験データを用いた温帯低気圧の将来変化解析, 日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会, 2016年10月27日, 名古屋.
Kuba, N., K. Suzuki, M. Sato, T. Seiki, and W. Roh (2016),: Impacts of cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation of shallow warm clouds. 国際雲降水学会(International conference on clouds and precipitation; ICCP　7月Manchester, UK )
久芳奈遠美・鈴木健太郎・佐藤正樹・清木達也・Woosub Roh (2016),: 暖かい雨に対する雲物理スキーム比較実験　気象学会春季大会 (5月・東京).
Noda, A. T., T. Seiki, M. Satoh, and Y. Yamada (2016),: Resolution dependency of clouds and precipitation derived from 14-kilometer to sub-kilometer mesh nonhydrostatic global simulations. GEWEX Convection-permitting climate modeling workshop, 6-8 September 2016, NCAR foot hill campus.
Noda, A. T., T. Seiki, M. Satoh, and Y. Yamada (2016),: Relation between cloud feedback and circulation in decadal-scale NICAM simulations, and their dependency of high cloud change to cloud size. CFMIP/WCRP/IcTP conference on cloud processes, circulation and climate sensitivity, 4-7 July 2016, International center for theoretical physics, Trieste, Italy.
Noda, A. T. (2016),: Resolution dependency of clouds and precipitation derived from 14-kilometer to sub-kilometer mesh nonhydrostatic global simulations. 4th international workshop on nonhydrostatic modeling, 30 Nov.-2 Dec. 2016, The prince hakone, Kanagawa.
Noda, A. T., T. Seiki, M. Satoh, and Y. Yamada (2016),: High cloud size dependency in the applicability of the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis using a global non-hydrostatic simulation. Tropical Meteor. Workshop, 29-30 September 2016, Kyoto University.
Ohno T. and Satoh M. (2016),: Sensitivity studies of cloud responses on SSTs in RCE experiments using a high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model, the 4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models, The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Hakone, Japan, 30 Nov. 2016.
Ohno T., Satoh M. (2016),: Sensitivity studies of cloud responses on SSTs in RCE experiments using a high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model, the Modeling Hierarchies Workshop, Princeton University, New Jersey, USA, 2 Nov. 2016.
Satoh, M., Ohno, T., Wing, A., Bony, S., and Stevens, B. (2016),: RCEMIP: Radiative Convective Equilibrium Model Inter-comparison Project. Workshop on global precipitation systems, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, November 28-29, 2016.
Satoh, M., Chen, Y.-W., Seiki, T., Kodama, C., Noda, A. T., and Yamada, Y. (2016),: High Cloud Responses to Global Warming Simulated by Two Different Cloud Microphysics Schemes Implemented in the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). Asia Oceania Geoscience Society 13th Annual Meeting (AOGS2016) July 1 - August 5, 2016, Beijing (oral presentation on Aug. 4).
Satoh, M., Yamada, Y., Sugi, M., Kodama, C., Noda, A. T. (2016),: Changes in convective mass flux, high clouds, and tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming simulated by NICAM. Joint US-Japan Workshop on Climate Change and Variability, 21-22 March 2016 Martin Johnson House, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, San Diego.
Satoh, M., Yamada, Y., Sugi, M., Kodama, C., Noda, A. T. (2016),: Responses of tropical cyclone structure and frequency to a global warming simulated by NICAM. The International Workshop on "Climate Change and Precipitation in the East Asia" March 1-2, 2016, Tokyo.
Satoh, M., Yashiro, H., Kajikawa, Y., Miyamoto, Y. (2016),: Global highest resolution (870 m) simulation and 10-year history of NICAM. MPI Joint Seminar, 24 February 2016. Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
Satoh, M. (2016),: Changes in convective mass flux and tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming simulated by NICAM. 20th CMMAP Team Meeting, January 5-7, 2016, Boulder, Colorado.
Satoh, M., Ohno, T., Wing, A., Bony, S., and Stevens, B. (2016),: RCEMIP: Radiative Convective Equilibrium Model Inter-comparison Project. The 4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models, Nov. 30 - Dec. 2, 2016. The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Hakone, Japan.
Seiki, T., Kodama, C., Satoh, M., Hashino, T., Hagihara, Y., and Okamoto, H. (2016),: Effect of topographical resolution on cirrus clouds using a high-resolution GCM, Nov. 30 – Dec. 2, 2016, Hakone, Japan.
Seiki, T., Goto, D., and Satoh, M. (2016),: Advanced modeling of cloud-aerosol interaction for global cloud resolving simulation, CFMIP Meeting 2016, Trieste, Italy, July 4-7, 2016.

（ ii ）地球環境変動研究を支える統合的予測システムの開発

（a）様々な時空間スケールに対応するシームレス予測の基盤技術開発

＜論文発表＞

Boyer, T., C. M. Domingues, S. A. Good, G. C. Johnson, J. M. Lyman, M. Ishii, V. Gouretski, J. K. Willis, J. Antonov, S. Wijffels, J. A. Church, R. Cowley, N. Bindoff, 2016: Sensitivity of Global Upper Ocean Heat Content Estimates to Mapping Methods, XBT Bias Corrections, and Baseline Climatologies. J. Climate, 29, 4817-4842, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0801.1.
Day, J.J, S. Tietsche, M. Collins, H.F. Goessling, V. Guemas, A. Guillory, W.J. Hurlin, M. Ishii, S.P.E. Keeley, D. Matei, R. Msadek, M. Sigmond, H. Tatebe, and E. Hawkins, 2016: The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2255-2270, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016
Johnson, G. C., J. M. Lyman, T. Boyer, C. M. Domingues, M. Ishii, R. Killick, D. Monselesan, and S. E. Wijffels, 2016: Ocean heat content [in "State of the Climate in 2015"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S66–S70.
Kent, E. C., J. Kennedy, T. M. Smith, S. Hirahara, B. Huang, A. Kaplan, D. E. Parker, C. P. Atkinson, D. I. Berry, G. Carella, Y. Fukuda, M. Ishii, P. D. Jones, F. Lindgren, C. J. Merchant, S. Morak-Bozzo, N. A. Rayner, V. Venema, S. Yasui and H.-M. Zhang, 2016: A call for new approaches to quantifying biases in observations of sea-surface temperature. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00251.1.
Butler, A. H., A. Arribas, M. Athanassiadou, J. Baehr, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, M. D´equ´, D. V. Domeisen, K. Fr¨ohlich, H. Hendon, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, M. Iza, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Kumar, C. MacLachlan, W. J. Merryfield, W. A. M¨uller, A. O'Neill, A. A. Scaife, J. Scinocca, M. Sigmond, T. N. Stockdale and T. Yasuda, 2016: The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 1413-1427, doi:10.1002/qj.2743.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Ishii, 2016: 150-year Coupled Reanalysis and Related Topics. 7th EU-Japan workshop on climate change research, Tokyo, 26-27 April, 2016. (invited)
Kubota, H, J. Matsumoto, M. Zaiki, M. Ishii, R. Kumazawa, H. Fudeyasu, T. Mikami, J.-I. Hamada, T. Inoue, S. Kobayashi, H. Yamamoto, and I. Akasaka, 2016: Japan Climate Data Project (JCDP) - Data rescue of tropical cyclone landfall in Japan, 9th ACRE workshop, Dublin, Ireland, 20 Jun. 2016.
小山博司, 石井正好, 山本広志, 木本昌秀 2016: 日本域の歴史的観測データのデジタル化, 2016年度日本気象学会秋季大会, 名古屋, 2016年10月26日.

（b）初期値・境界値の最適化技術、データ同化技術の開発

＜論文発表＞

Fujimori, S., M. Abe, T. Kinoshita, T. Hasegawa, H. Kawase, K. Kushida, T. Masui, K. Oka, H. Shiogama, K. Takahashi, H. Tatebe, and M. Yoshikawa, 2016: Downscaling global emissions and its implications derived from climate model experiments. PLOS One, 12, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0169733.
Imada, Y., H. Tatebe, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2016: South Pacific influence on the termination of El Nino in 2014. Sci. Rep., 6, doi:10.1038/srep30341.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

建部洋晶, 2016: 地球温暖化の進行から予期される異常気象発生頻度の変化. 第22回ビジュアリゼーションカンファレンス, 青海, 2016年11月25日. (invited)
Hirota, N., T. Ogura, H. Tatebe, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Improvements of the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in MIROC6, Workshop on global precipitation systems, Yokohama, Nov. 28, 2016.
Hirota, N., T. Ogura, H. Tatebe, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Improvements of the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in MIROC6. AGU Fall meeting, San-Francisco, USA, 14 Dec. 2016.
川崎高雄, 建部洋晶, 2016: 太平洋深層循環の高解像度モデリング, 2016年度日本海洋学会秋季大会, 鹿児島, 2016年9月13日.
Ono, J., H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, M. Ishii, and M. I. Nodzu, 2016: Predictability of sea ice in the Arctic regions with the MIROC climate model, The Seventh Symposium on Polar Science, Tachikawa, Dec. 2, 2016.
小野純, 建部洋晶, 小室芳樹, 野津雅人, 石井正好, 2016: 気候モデルMIROCを用いた北極海の海氷変動と予測可能性, 2016年度日本海洋学会秋季大会, 鹿児島, 2016年9月13日.
Tatebe, H., H. Koyama, T. Kataoka, J. Ono, and M. Ishii, 2016: Centennial climate reanalysis using a climate model MIROC with LETKF system. Coupled data assimilation workshop, Toulouse, France, Oct. 20, 2016.