JCOPE-T a4dvar ocean forecast

JCOPE-T a4dVar Ensemble Seasonal Ocean Prediction


What's new
	June 9, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.1 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (Z0B=0.001)/ minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 / Bulletin-20240527 May 31, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.3 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (Z0B=0.001)/ minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 Bulletin-20240519 May 24, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.3 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 Bulletin-20240511 May 7, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.3 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 Bulletin-20240425 February 9, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 diffusivity 0.1e-4 from Bulletin-20240128 January 18, 2024:Wind stress x 1.15, hybrid harmonic(0.6)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 from Bulletin-20240104 January 2, 2024:Wind stress x 1.15, hybrid harmonic(0.6)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 from Bulletin-20231219 December 25, 2023:Failed representation of the stable Kuroshio large meander and so interrupted the forecast experiments December 17, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic(0.16)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15 from Bulletin-20231203 December 9, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic(0.16)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 from Bulletin-20231125 November 25, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic(0.16)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference from Bulletin-20231109 November 11, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic-biharmonic viscosity, bottom friction by Varlamov et al. (2015), rotated baroclinic pressure gradient scheme from Bulletin-20231024 October 10, 2023:Ensenble Sensitivity Analysis targeting south of Muroto September 10, 2023:Introducing the strong relaxation toward the mgdsst climatology in climatrocgy forcng runs from Bulletin-20230829 August 15, 2023:Adding the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 forcing (20-member) experiments August 4, 2023:Wind stress x 1.2 July 17, 2023:No reralxation to MGDSST monthly climatology July 06, 2023:Ensemble perturbations x (1.5 -> 2) July 03, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1 and Ensemble perturbations x (1 -> 1.5) June 26, 2023:Tentatively Opened
	Kuroshio path prediction driven by the seasonal prediction and climatology forcings from the NCEP CFSv2 product. Surface velocities prediction driven by the seasonal prediction and climatology forcings from the NCEP CFSv2 product. Ensemble mean SST anomaly driven by the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 forcings compared to SST climatological daily mean from JCOPE2M 1993-2022 data Ensemble mean SST difference between the forecast runs driven by the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 and its climatology forcings Ensemble mean SST anomaly compared to SST climatological daily mean from JCOPE2M 1993-2022 data Ensemble mean SST difference between the forecast runs driven by the NCEP-CFSv2 and its climatology forcings Home 20240527 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated) 20240527 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar 20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar 20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up 20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 20240511 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 2 20240511 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240511 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness/ Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / harmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.1 - additional harmonic 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) (Forcing enemble forecast failed owing to blow-up in one member) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) 20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness 20240425 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness 20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness 20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction 20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / Bottom roughness 20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) 20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) 20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240409 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240401 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240324 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240316 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240308 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240229 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240221 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240213 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240205 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness 20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 / bottom friction by Varlamov et al. (2015) 20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 /cbmin=0.0075 20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 20240120 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 20240112 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 20240104 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.8 20240104 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 20240104 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 20231227 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 20231219 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 20231211 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 20231211 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15 / wind stress x 1.15 20231211 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15 20231203 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.1 20231203 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15 20231203 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 20231125 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 20231125 / ssh mean offset -25cm 20231125 / ssh mean offset -30cm 20231117 / ssh mean offset -30cm 20231117 / ssh mean offset -27cm 20231117 20231109 Hybrid viscosity (bi-harmonic 0.1 - harmonic 0.16)/ Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -25cm 20231101 Hybrid viscosity (bi-harmonic 0.1 - harmonic 0.16)/ Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -25cm 20231101 Hybrid viscosity/ Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -25cm 20231101 Hybrid viscosity with small biharmonic viscosity / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -30cm 20231101 Biharmonic viscosity alone / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -30cm 20231101 Hybrid viscosity / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -30cm 20231101 Biharmonic viscosity alone / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient 20231101 Hybrid viscosity / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient 20231101 20231024 20231016 20231008 20230930 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar 20230930 20230922 20230914 20230906 20230829 20230821 20230813 20230805 half extraction of ocean current for evaluation of the relative wind stress 20230805 20230728 20230720 - Wind stress x 1.2 20230720 20230712 20230704 20230626 - No relaxation of surface heat flux to monthly MGDSST climatology (Prediction forcing alone) 20230626 - Weaker relaxation of surface heat flux to monthly MGDSST climatology (Prediction forcing alone) 20230626 20230618 - Ensemble perturbations x (1.5 -> 2) (Prediction forcining alone) 20230618 - Wind stress x 1.1 & Ensemble perturbations x (1.0 -> 1.5) 20230618 20230606 CFSv2 original SST daily anomaly forecast MGDSST daily anomaly for valiation Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis targeting south of Muroto E-mail: jcope@jamstec.go.jp

Links to websites for reference

Prediction

Initial

Initial