JCOPE-T a4dVar Ensemble Seasonal Ocean Prediction

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20240628 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.1 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20240620 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.1 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20240620 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20240612 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20240604 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20240527 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated) / a4dVar iteration=15
20240527 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated)
20240527 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar
20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar
20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up
20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4
20240519 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4
20240511 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 2
20240511 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240511 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness/ Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / harmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.1 - additional harmonic 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4) (Forcing enemble forecast failed owing to blow-up in one member)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / Ensemble perturbations x (2 -> 4)
20240503 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness
20240425 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness
20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness
20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction
20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / Bottom roughness
20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / bi-harmonic viscosity 0.3 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp)
20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp)
20240417 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240409 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240401 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240324 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240316 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240308 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240229 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240221 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240213 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240205 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240128 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data) / monthly_ts_clim corrected / minimum diffusivity zero
20240128 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness
20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 / bottom friction by Varlamov et al. (2015)
20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 /cbmin=0.0075
20240128 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4
20240120 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6
20240112 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6
20240104 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.8
20240104 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6
20240104 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6
20231227 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6
20231219 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15 / additional harmonic viscosity 0.6
20231211 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 / wind stress x 1.15
20231211 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15 / wind stress x 1.15
20231211 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15
20231203 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.1
20231203 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15
20231203 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2
20231125 / ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2
20231125 / ssh mean offset -25cm
20231125 / ssh mean offset -30cm
20231117 / ssh mean offset -30cm
20231117 / ssh mean offset -27cm
20231117
20231109 Hybrid viscosity (bi-harmonic 0.1 - harmonic 0.16)/ Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -25cm
20231101 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.1 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 0.5-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data) / minimum zero diffisivity
20231101 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.1 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 0.5-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20231101 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 + harmonic viscosity 0.2 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.01) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20231101 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.01) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20231101 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar (recalculated 9-day coverage of SSHA data)
20231101 Hybrid viscosity (bi-harmonic 0.1 - harmonic 0.16)/ Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -25cm
20231101 Hybrid viscosity/ Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -25cm
20231101 Hybrid viscosity with small biharmonic viscosity / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -30cm
20231101 Biharmonic viscosity alone / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -30cm
20231101 Hybrid viscosity / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient / ssh mean offset -30cm
20231101 Biharmonic viscosity alone / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient
20231101 Hybrid viscosity / Original bottom friction / 4th-order baroclinic pressure gradient
20231101 20231024 20231016 20231008
20230930 / ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / wind stress x 1.0 / biharmonic viscosity 0.1 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 (3dVar open-mp) / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (z0b=0.001) / Ensemble perturbations x 4 / after 38-year spin-up simulation and 1-year 3dVar
20230930 20230922 20230914 20230906
20230829
20230821 20230813
20230805 half extraction of ocean current for evaluation of the relative wind stress
20230805
20230728
20230720 - Wind stress x 1.2
20230720 20230712 20230704
20230626 - No relaxation of surface heat flux to monthly MGDSST climatology (Prediction forcing alone)
20230626 - Weaker relaxation of surface heat flux to monthly MGDSST climatology (Prediction forcing alone)
20230626
20230618 - Ensemble perturbations x (1.5 -> 2) (Prediction forcining alone)
20230618 - Wind stress x 1.1 & Ensemble perturbations x (1.0 -> 1.5)
20230618
20230606
CFSv2 original SST daily anomaly forecast
MGDSST daily anomaly for valiation
Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis targeting south of Muroto
E-mail: jcope@jamstec.go.jp
   
History
  June 9, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.1 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (Z0B=0.001)/ minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 / Bulletin-20240527
May 31, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.3 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness (Z0B=0.001)/ minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 Bulletin-20240519
May 24, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -20cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.3 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 Bulletin-20240511
May 7, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / Biharminic viscosity 0.3 / CFB stress correction / Bottom roughness / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 Bulletin-20240425
February 9, 2024:Wind stress x 1.0 /ssh mean offset -25cm / a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 / additional harmonic viscosity 1.0 / minimum vertical viscosity 1e-4 diffusivity 0.1e-4 from Bulletin-20240128
January 18, 2024:Wind stress x 1.15, hybrid harmonic(0.6)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.3 from Bulletin-20240104
January 2, 2024:Wind stress x 1.15, hybrid harmonic(0.6)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 from Bulletin-20231219
December 25, 2023:Failed representation of the stable Kuroshio large meander and so interrupted the forecast experiments
December 17, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic(0.16)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.15 from Bulletin-20231203
December 9, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic(0.16)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference, a4dvar weight parameter (bg) 0.2 from Bulletin-20231125
November 25, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic(0.16)-biharmonic viscosity(0.05), original bottom friction, 4th order baroclinic pressure gradient scheme, offset -25cm for mean sea surface height reference from Bulletin-20231109
November 11, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1, hybrid harmonic-biharmonic viscosity, bottom friction by Varlamov et al. (2015), rotated baroclinic pressure gradient scheme from Bulletin-20231024
October 10, 2023:Ensenble Sensitivity Analysis targeting south of Muroto
September 10, 2023:Introducing the strong relaxation toward the mgdsst climatology in climatrocgy forcng runs from Bulletin-20230829
August 15, 2023:Adding the ensemble NCEP-CFSv2 forcing (20-member) experiments
August 4, 2023:Wind stress x 1.2
July 17, 2023:No reralxation to MGDSST monthly climatology
July 06, 2023:Ensemble perturbations x (1.5 -> 2)
July 03, 2023:Wind stress x 1.1 and Ensemble perturbations x (1 -> 1.5)
June 26, 2023:Tentatively Opened
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