テーマA：直面する地球環境変動の予測と診断

2013年度

2012年度

2013年度

（ i ）直面する気候変動に関する要因の特定とメカニズムの解明

（a）年々変動～30年程度を対象とした近未来気候変動予測研究

＜論文発表＞

Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, T. T. Sakamoto, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, Y. Imada, 2013: An overview of decadal climate Predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC. Clim. Dyn., 40, 1201-1222, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y.
Doblas-Reyes F.J., I. Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García, V. Guemas, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, L.R.L. Rodrigues and G.J. van Oldenborgh, 2013: Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nature Comm., 4, 1715, doi:10.1038/ncomms2704.
Hayasaki, M., R. Kawamura, M. Mori, and M. Watanabe, 2013: Response of extratropical cyclone activity to the Kuroshio large meander in northern winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-5, doi:10.1002/grl.50546.
Hu, A., G. A. Meehl, W. Han, J. Yin, B. Wu, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Influence of continental ice retreat on future global climate. J. Climate, 26, 3087–3111, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00102.1.
Imada Y., Watanabe M., Mori M., Kimoto M., Shiogama H, and Ishii M. (2013): Contribution of atmospheric circulation change to the 2012 heavy rainfall in southern Japan, [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94 (9), S52-S54.
Imada, Y., H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Multi-decadal modulation of tropical Pacific instability wave activity since the middle of the twentieth century. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 9, 102-105, doi:10.2151/sola.2013-023.
Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and H. Shiogama, 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate--Part I: Past changes and future projections. Clim. Dyn., in press, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2073-0.
Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, G. Boer, R. Burgman, G. Branstator, C. Cassou, S. Corti, G. Danabasoglu, F.Doblas-Reyes, E. Hawkins, A. Karspeck, M. Kimoto, A. Kumar, D. Matei, J. Mignot, R. Msadek, H.Pohlmann, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, E. Schneider, D. Smith, R. Sutton, H. Teng, G. J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and S. Yeager, 2013: Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.., doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
Mori, M., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, S. Yokoi, T. Mochizuki, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Tatebe, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, Y. Imada, and H. Koyam, 2013: Hindcast prediction and nearfuture projection of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific using CMIP5 near-term experiments with MIROC. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, 431-452.
Mori, M., M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Superrotation and nonlinearHadley circulation response to zonally asymmetric sea surfacetemperature in an aqua-planet GCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91A, 269-291,doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-A10.
Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Watanabe, and M. Ishii, 2014: Error sensitivity to initial climate states in Pacific decadal hindcasts. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 10, 39-44.
Ohba M, Shiogama H, Yokohata T. , Watanabe M. (2013): Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO Simulated in a Coupled GCM. J Climate, 26, 5169–5182.
Shiogama H, Watanabe M., Imada Y., Mori M., Ishii M. and Kimoto M. (2013): An Event Attribution of the 2010 Drought in the South Amazon Region using the MIROC5 Model. Atmospheric Science Letters, 14(3), 170-175.
Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, E. Hawkins, W. Hazeleger, L. Hermanson, C.-K. Ho, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, J. Lean, D. Matei, W. J. Merryfield, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, A. Rosati, B. Wouters, and K. Wyser, 2013: Real-time multimodel decadal climate predictions. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2875-2888, 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0.
Su, H., J. H. Jiang, C. Zhai, V. S. Perun, J. T. Shen, A. DelGenio, L. S. Nazarenko, L. Donner, L. Horowitz, C. Seman, C. Moncrette, J. Petch, M. Ringer, J. Cole, A. Gettelman, M. Watanabe, J.-L.Dufresne, L. Rotstayn, S. Jeffrey, T. Wu, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, E. M. Volodin, M. Mesquita, T. Iversen, T. L'Ecuyer, J. P. Teixeira, and G. L. Stephens, 2013: Diagnosis of regime-dependent cloud simulation errors in CMIP5 models using 'A-Train' satellite observations and reanalysis data. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2762-2780, doi:10.1029/2012JD018575.
Tanaka, K., H.-J. Kim, K. Saito, H. G. Takahashi, M. Watanabe, T. Yokohata, M. Kimoto, K. Takata, and T. Yasunari, 2013: How have both cultivation and warming influenced annual global isoprene and monoterpene emissions since the preindustrial era? Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 9703-9718.
Tatebe, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Kimoto, and H. Hasumi, 2013: Control of decadal and bidecadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific by the off-equatorial South Pacific Ocean, Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00137.1.
Watanabe M, Shiogama H, Imada Y, Mori M, Ishii M, Kimoto M (2013): Event attribution of the August 2010 Russian heat wave. SOLA, 9, 65-68, doi:10.2151/sola.2013-015.
Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, A. Oka, M. Sato, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3175-3179, doi:10.1002/grl.50541.
Williams, K. D., A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. Deque, S. Fermepin, B. Medeiros, M. Watanabe, C. Jacob, S. A. Klein, C. A. Senior, and D. L. Williamson, 2013: The Transpose AMIP II experiment and its application to the understanding of Sourthern Ocean cloud biases in climate models. J. Climate, 26, 3258-3274.
Yang, P., Z. Li, W. Wu, Z. Liu, M. Inatsu, Y. Zha, P. Tang, Z. Li, M. Kimoto, H. Tang, 2013: Simulated impact of elevated CO2, temperature, and precipitation on the winter wheat yield in the North China Plain. Reg. Environ. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0484-9.
Yasunaka, S., and M Kimoto, 2013: Upper ocean temperature warming pattern in the past 50 years. J. Oceanogr., 69, 87–95, DOI 10.1007/s10872-012-0159-z.
今田由紀子，鼎信次郎，渡部雅浩，石井正好，木本昌秀，2013: 2011年タイの大雨の季節予測可能性，土木学会論文集B1(水工学)，69.
浜口耕平，今田由紀子，塩竈秀夫，鼎信次郎, 2013: 2010年パキスタン豪雨に対する地球温暖化の寄与度の定量化，土木学会論文集B1(水工学), 69, No. 4, I_337_-I_342.
塩竈秀夫, 2013: 人間活動が世界の気候に与える影響 ―温室効果ガスとエアロゾルの変化の影響―. 安全工学, 52 (6), 371-375.
Ao, C.-O., J. Jiang, A. J. Mannucci, H. Su, O. Verkhoglyadova, C. Zhai, J. Cole, L. Donner, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Inversen, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, C. Morcrette, L. Rotstayn, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Evaluation of CMIP5 upper troposphere geopotential height with GPS radio occultation observations. Geophys. Res. Lett.
Hirota, N., Y. N. Takayabu, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and M. Chikira, 2014: Role of convective entrainment in spatial distributions of and temporal variations in precipitation over tropical oceans. J. Climate.
Imada, Y., S. Kanae, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe and M. Ishii, 2013: Predictability of persistent Thailand rainfall during mature monsoon season in 2011 using statistical downscaling of AOGCM seasonal prediction, Clim. Dyn.
Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and H. Shiogama, 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate. Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming. Clim. Dyn., in revision.
Kim, H.-J., B. Wang, S. Watanabe, A. Noda, M. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya, 2014: Robust signal of the simulated Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon variability during the recent warming period. Geophys. Res. Lett.
Ma, H.-Y., S. Xie, K. Williams, J. S. Boyle, S. Bony, H. Douville, S. Fermepin, S. A. Klein, B. Medeiros, M. Watanabe, and D. L. Williamson, 2014: On the correspondence between mean forecast errors and climate errors in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, accepted.
Nodzu, M. I., T. Nozawa, M. Ishii, K. Ogochi and T. Nishimura, 2013: Aerosol-driven uncertainty in simulated air temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.
Sato, K., J. Inoue, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness. Geophys. Res. Lett.
Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust increase of the tropical Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett.
Yamazaki, K., and M. Watanabe, 2014: Effects of extratropical warming on ENSO amplitudes in an ensemble of a coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn.
Yamazaki, K., Y. Imada, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Sea surface temperature anomaly in the north tropical Atlantic and its role in the seasonal predictability of ENSO.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Contribution of atmospheric circulation change to the 2012 heavy rainfall in southern Japan, IDAG meeting 2013, Boulder, July 1-3, 2013.
Imada, Y., and co-authors, 2013: Challenges to an Event Attribution using the MIROC5 model. CLIMATE2013, UC Barkeley, March 20-22, 2013.
Imada, Y., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, S. Kanae, 2013: New Seasonal Prediction System by MIROC5 and its application to the regional climate prediction. Third CLIVAR WS 'New Strategies for Evaluating ENSO Processes in Climate Models', Hobart, January 21-23, 2013.
Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, 2013: Possible remote influence on pacific decadal variability and predictability. Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2013, Makuhari, Chiba, May 24, 2013(poster).
Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, 2013: Possible remote influence on pacific decadal variability and predictability. International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction, Toulouse, France, May 13-16, 2013(poster).
Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Decadal prediction in the Pacific, International workshop on climate system modeling, Honolulu, March 10, 2014.
Shiogama H, M Watanabe,Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masayoshi Ishii, M Kimoto, 2013: An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model. International Detection and Attribution. Group. Boulder, Colorado, USA, 1-3 July 2003.
Shiogama H, M Watanabe, Y Imada, M Mori, RK Lestari, M Kimoto, Youichi Kamae, M Ishii, 2014: Event attribution studies from Asia. 1st General Assembly of EU FP7・EUCLEIA (EUropean, CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution), ETH Zurich, 20-22 January 2014 (Keynote perspectives)
Tatebe, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Kimoto, and H. Hasumi, 2013: Control of decadal and bidecadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific by the off-equatorial South Pacific Ocean. International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction, Toulouse, France, May 13-16, 2013.
Tatebe, H., M. Kurogi, Y. Tanaka, H. Hasumi, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Improvement of climatic mean state and variability over the western North Pacific by better representing oceanic fronts in a nested regional ocean model implemented in to MIROC5. EGU Annual Assembly, Vienna, April 2013.
Tatebe, H., and co-authors, 2013: Development of the updated version of MIROC5 and a data assimilation system using LETKF applied to the atmosphere-ocean coupled system. CLIMATE2013, UC Barkeley, March 20-22, 2013.
Watanabe, M., 2013: Lessons from CMIP5. RIMS International conference on theoretical aspects of variability and predictability in weather and climate systems, Kyoto, September 22-25, 2013.
Watanabe, M., 2013: Review for CMIP5 high-resolution time slice experiments. Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6, Aspen, 4-9 August, 2013.
Watanabe, M., 2013: Land-sea thermal contrast and summer atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warmed climate. 12th East Asian Climate conference, Busan, July 1-3, 2013.
Watanabe, M., 2013: Equatorial mean precipitation and ENSO in CMIP5 models: Its diversity and causes of errors. JpGU, Tokyo, May 24, 2013.
Watanabe, M., and K. Yamazaki, 2013: Effects of extratropical warming on ENSO amplitudes in a GCM historical ensemble. Third CLIVAR WS 'New Strategies for Evaluating ENSO Processes in Climate Models', Hobart, January 21-23, 2013.
Watanabe, M. 2013: Disentangling causes of equatorial mean precipitation errors in multiple model ensembles, 4th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models, Met Office, Exeter, April 15, 2013.
Yamazaki, K. and Y. Imada, 2013: Recent progress in the MIROC5 seasonal prediction. DACA-13 (Joint Assembly of IAMAS and IACS), Davos, Switzerland, 8-12 July 2013.
Yamazaki, K., Y. Imada, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Sea surface temperature anomaly in the north tropical Atlantic and its role in the seasonal predictability of ENSO. 2014 Ocean Sciences Meeting, Honolulu, USA, 24-28 February 2014.
今田由紀子, 鼎信次郎, 渡部雅浩, 石井正好, 木本昌秀, 2013: 2011年タイの大雨の季節予測可能性, 水工学講演会, 名城大学, 名古屋, 2013年3月5-7日
今田由紀子 and coauthors，2013: Recent progress in the MIROC5 seasonal prediction system and predictability of two flavors of El Nino．日本地球惑星科学連合2013 年大会，幕張，2013年5月
今田由紀子, 鼎信次郎, 渡部雅浩, 石井正好, 木本昌秀, 2013: 特異値分解解析を用いたGCM季節予測のダウンスケーリング, 日本気象学会春季大会, 代々木, 2013年5月15日.
今田由紀子, 塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩, 森正人, 石井正好, 木本昌秀, 2013: 平成24年7月九州北部豪雨に対する地球温暖化の寄与, 日本気象学会秋季大会, 仙台国際センター, 仙台, 2013年11月19日.
釜江陽一, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 塩竈秀夫, 2013: 夏季東アジア広域循環場の将来変化に対する人為起源強制力およびSST 上昇の寄与. 日本気象学会2013年度春季大会, 国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 2013年5月15-18日.
望月崇・木本昌秀・渡部雅浩・石井正好, 2013: 近年の緩やかな地球温暖化傾向に対する十年スケール気候変動予測. 日本気象学会2013年度秋季大会, 仙台, 2013年11月20日.
森正人，建部洋晶，今田由紀子，木本昌秀，羽角博康，2012: 熱帯太平洋10年及び20年規模ENSO様変動に対する南太平洋の役割．日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会，幕張，2012年5月．
野津雅人, 野沢徹, 石井正好, 西村照幸, 大越智幸司, 2013: 外部フォーシングの 20世紀気候変動再現実験への影響, 日本気象学会秋季大会, 仙台国際センター, 仙台, 2013年11月20日.
渡部雅浩, 2013: エルニーニョと地球温暖化. 日本海洋学会2013 年秋季大会シンポジウム, 北海道大学, 2013年9月.
渡部雅浩, 2013: 地球温暖化と近年の異常気象. 日本地球惑星科学連合一般講演会, 東京大学, 2013年11月.
渡部雅浩, 2013: 近年の気候変化を「仕分け」する ─ 温暖化研究の新たな展開. 気候変動リスク情報創生プログラム平成25年度公開シンポジウム, 国連大学ウ・タント国際会議場, 2013年9月25日.

（b）①気候感度に関する不確実性の低減化

＜論文発表＞

Yokohata, T., J. D. Annan, M. Collins, C. S. Jackson, H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, S. Emori, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, M. J. Webb, and J. C. Hargreaves 2013: Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2745-2763, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9.
Demoto, S., M. Watanabe, and Y. Kamae 2013: Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2427-2432, doi:10.1002/grl.50474.
Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Shiogama, and T. Ogura 2013: Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1875-9.
Ogura, T., M. J. Webb, M. Watanabe, F. H. Lambert, Y. Tsushima, and M. Sekiguchi 2013: Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382- 013-1955-x.
Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto 2013: Multi-parameter multiphysics ensemble (MPMPE): a new approach exploring the uncertainties of climate sensitivity, Atmos. Sci. Let., doi:10.1002/asl2.472.
Zhang, M. and coauthors 2013: CGILS:Results from the first phase of an international project to understand the physical mechanisms of low cloud feedbacks in single column models, JAMES, 5, 1-17, doi:10.1002/2013MS000246.
Bodas-Salcedo, A., K. D. Williams, M. A. Ringer, I. Beau, J. N. S. Cole, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Koshiro, B. Stevens, Z. Wang, and T. Yokohata 2013: Origins of the solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean in CFMIP2 models, J. Clim, 27, 41-56, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00169.1.
Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and H. Shiogama 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate. Part I: Past changes and future projections, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2073-0.
Ma, H.-Y., S. Xie, S. A. Klein, K. D. Williams, J. S. Boyle, S. Bony, H. Douville, S. Fermepin, B. Medeiros, S. Tyteca, M. Watanabe, and D. Williams: On the correspondence between mean forecast errors and climate errors in CMIP5 models, J. Clim., 15, 1781-1798, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00474.1.
Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and H. Shiogama 2013: Land-sea thermal contrast and summertime atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming, submitted to Clim. Dyn.
Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto 2014: Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century, submitted to Nature Climate Change.
Yoshimori, M., A. Abe-Ouchi, M. Watanabe, A. Oka, and T. Ogura 2014: Robust seasonality of Arctic warming processes in two different versions of MIROC GCM, submitted to J. Clim.

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Watanabe, M.: Disentangling causes of equatorial mean precipitation errors in multiple model ensembles, 4th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models (Met Office, Exeter, 15 April).
Ogura T., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, J. D. Annan, and J. C. Hargreaves: On the parametric uncertainty of the MIROC5 radiation bias, 4th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models (Met Office, Exeter, 17 April).
川合秀明, 神代剛: 中緯度の海洋下層雲のパラメタリゼーション, 日本気象学会春季大会 (国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京, 5月18日).
釜江陽一, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 塩竈秀夫: 夏季東アジア広域循環場の将来変化に対する人為起源強制力およびSST上昇の寄与, 日本気象学会春季大会, (国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京, 5月18日).
Yoshimori M., M. Watanabe, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Shiogama, and T. Ogura: Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2013, (Makuhari, 21 May).
Watanabe M: Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations, CFMIP/EUCLIPSE meeting, (Hamburg, 10 June).
Ogura T., M. J. Webb, M. Watanabe, F. H. Lambert, and Y. Tsushima (2013): On the impact of instantaneous radiative forcing on tropospheric adjustment, CFMIP/EUCLIPSE meeting, (Hamburg, 10 June).
Kamae, Y. and M. Watanabe: Mechanisms of tropospheric cloud adjustment to CO2 increase in CMIP5 models, CFMIP/EUCLIPSE meeting, (Hamburg, 10 June).
Kawai, H. and T. Koshiro (2013): Improvement of a stratocumulus scheme for mid-latitude maritime low clouds, CFMIP/EUCLIPSE meeting, (Hamburg, 10 June).
Koshiro, T. and M. Shiotani (2013): Relationship between low stratiform cloud amount and estimated inversion strength in the lower troposphere over the global ocean in terms of cloud types, CFMIP/EUCLIPSE meeting, (Hamburg, 10 June).
Abe, M., T. Nozawa, T. Ogura, and K. Takata: Assessment of temporal trend in surface air temperature change in Northern High-latitude land region of climate models, the forth symposium on polar science, National Institute for Polar Research, (Tokyo, 12 November).
Abe, M., T. Nozawa, T. Ogura, and K. Takata: Assessment of snow amount in Northern Hemisphere simulated by CMIP5 climate models, National Institute for Polar Research, (Tokyo, 15 November).
Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Ogura, and H. Shiogama: Seasonality of processes contributing to Arctic warming amplification in two MIROC GCMs, National Institute for Polar Research, (Tokyo, 12 November).
吉森正和, 渡部雅浩, 阿部彩子, 塩竈秀夫, 小倉知夫: MIROC GCM における北極域温暖化増幅プロセスの季節性について, 日本気象学会秋季大会, 仙台国際センター, (仙台, 11月20日).
川合秀明, 藪将吉, 萩原雄一朗 (2013): モデルにおける中緯度海洋下層雲の鉛直構造の検証, 日本気象学会秋季大会, 仙台国際センター, (仙台, 11月20 日).

（b）②気候感度に関する不確実性の低減化に向けた「雲」の予測精度の向上

＜論文発表＞

Yamada, Y., Satoh, M. (2013): Response of ice and liquid water paths of tropical cyclones to global warming simulated by a global nonhydrostatic model with explicit cloud microphysics. J. Climate, 26, 9931-9945. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00182.1.
Noda, A. T., Nakamura, K., Iwasaki, T., Satoh, M. (2014): A numerical study of a stratocumulus-topped boundary-layer: relations of decaying clouds with stability parameters across inversion. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 91, 727-746. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-601.
Noda, A. T., Nakamura, K., Iwasaki, T., Satoh, M. (2014): Responses of subtropical marine stratocumulus cloud to perturbed lower atmospheres. SOLA, 10, 34-38.
Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Hagihara, Y., Kubota, T., Matsui, T., Nasuno, T., Okamoto, H. (2013): Evaluating cloud microphysics from the NICAM against CloudSat and CALIPSO. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 7273-7293, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50564.
Ham, S.-H., Sohn, B.-J., Kato, S., Satoh, M. (2013): Vertical inhomogeneity of ice cloud layers from CloudSat and CALIPSO measurements and comparison to nicam simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 9930-9947. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50582.
Oouchi, K., Satoh, M. (2013): A synoptic-scale cold pool hypothesis on the origin of mature-stage super cloud cluster – a case study with a global non-hydrostatic model, Yanai memorial volume. Meteor. Monographs, American Meteorological Society, Chap.15, accepted.
Seiki, T., Nakajima, T. (2013): Aerosol Effects of the condensation process on a convective cloud simulation. J. Atmos. Sci., doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0195.1.
Miyamoto, Y., Satoh, M., Tomita, H., Oouchi, K., Yamada, Y., Kodama, C., Kinter III, J. (2013): Gradient wind balance in tropical cyclones in global nonhydrostatic model simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., accepted. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00115.1.
Roh, W., Satoh, M. (2014): Evaluation of precipitating hydrometeor parameterizations in a single-moment bulk microphysics scheme for deep convective systems over the tropical open ocean. J. Atmos. Sci., accepted.
Kuba, N., Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Suzuki, K. (2014): Relationships between layer-mean radar reflectivity and columnar effective radius of warm cloud: Numerical study using a cloud microphysical bin model. J. Geophys. Res., accepted.
Tsushima, Y., Iga, S., Tomita, H., Satoh, M., Webb, M. (2013): High cloud increase in a perturbed SST experiment with a global nonhydrostatic model including explicit convective processes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
Goto, D., Dai, T., Satoh, M., Tomita, H., Uchida, J., Misawa, S., Inoue, T., Tsuruta, H., Ueda, K., Ng, C.F.S., Takami, A., Sugimoto, N., Shimizu, A., Ohara, T., Nakajima, T. (2013): Application of a global nonhydrostatic model with a stretched-grid system to regional aerosol simulations around Japan. Geoscientific Model Development.
Seiki, T., Satoh, M., Tomita, H., Nakajima, T. (2013): Simultaneous evaluation of ice cloud microphysics and non-sphericity of the cloud optical properties using hydrometeor video sonde and radiometer sonde in-situ observations. J. Geophys. Res., in revision.
Noda, A. T., Yamada, Y., Kodama, C., Miyakawa, T., Seiki, T., Satoh, M. (2014): Cold and warm rain simulated using a global nonhydrostatic model without cumulus parameterization, and their responses to a warmer atmospheric condition. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan.
Noda, A. T., Yamada, Y., Kodama, T., Seiki, T., Satoh, M. (2014): Responses of tropical and subtropical high-cloud statistics to a warmer atmospheric condtion. J. Climate.
小玉知央, 釜江陽一, 小倉知夫, 神代剛, 川合秀明, 野田暁, 渡部雅浩, 2013: 雲フィードバックに関するモデル相互比較プロジェクト（CFMIP）会議2013 参加報告, 天気, 60, 12.
釜江陽一, 小玉知央, 武石あずさ, 2013: EUCLIPSE 雲と気候に関するサマースクール参加報告, 天気, 60, 10, 797-802.
野田暁, 2013: 下層雲のLES とその気候研究への応用. 天気.
大内和良, 2013: 『図説地球環境の事典（朝倉書店）』 , 「台風」（分担執筆、編集. 吉崎正憲・野田彰）

＜口頭発表（ポスター含む）＞

Satoh, M. and Y. Yamada, 2013: Response of ice and liquid water paths of tropical cyclones to global warming simulated by a global nonhydrostatic model with explicit cloud microphysics. AOGS 10th Annual Meeting, Brisbane, Australia, 28 June 2013.
Kodama, C., S. Iga, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, Y. Tsushima and M. Satoh, 2013: Cloud changes of multiyear simulations of NICAM and possible impact of the global warming on storm-track ice cloud, CFMIP meeting, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany, 11 June 2013.
小玉知央, 山田洋平, 野田暁, Ying-Wen Chen, 對馬洋子, 佐藤正樹, 2013/11/19-21: NICAM 長期気候実験における雲フィードバックの定量的推定,日本気象学会2013 年秋季大会, A212, 仙台.
野田暁, 2013: 下層雲のLES とその気候研究への応用. 日本気象学会2013 年度春季大会シンポジウム「変化する地球環境と気象学の役割」, 東京都.
Noda, A. T., 2013: Turbulent model in NICAM, and its impacts on clouds. 2013 NICAM workshop, 29-30 August 2013, Hawaii University.
Noda, A. T., 2013: Diurnal cycle of tropical convection in NICAM simulations. 2013 NICAM workshop, 29-30 August 2013, Hawaii University.
Noda, A. T., Y. Yamada, C. Kodama, and M. Satoh, 2013: Changes of cloud-size statistics and associated changes of radiative forcing due to global warming in global cloud-resolving simulations EUCLIPSE-CFMIP meeting, Hamburg, Germany, 10-14 June, 2013.
野田暁, 山田洋平, 小玉知央, 佐藤正樹, 2013: 全球雲解像モデルによる熱帯域の雲サイズとその温暖化応答, 熱帯気象研究会, 2013年8月22－23日, 沖縄県 (琉球大学)
野田暁, 山田洋平, 小玉知央, 宮川知己, 佐藤正樹, 2013: 全球雲解像モデルによる低緯度域の暖かい雨の温暖化応答, 第15 回非静力学モデル, 2013年9月26－27日, 北海道 (北海道大学)
Oouchi, K: "Tropical cyclone research with NICAM –recent research highlight-". U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Workshop, GFDL, USA, 2013年6月5-7日.
大内和良: 「全球非静力学モデルにおける台風とMJO の関係」, 平成25年度京都大学防災研究所共同研究集会「台風研究会」, 京都大学防災研究所, 京都, 2013年9月9-10日.
Oouchi, K., Taniguchi, H., Nasuno, T., Satoh, M., Tomita, H.,Yamada, Y., Ikeda, M., Shirooka, R., Yamada, H., and Yoneyama, K: K.,"Quasi real-time intra-seasonal forecasting of tropical convection over the tropical warm pool: a new challenge of global cloud-system-resolving model". DACA13, Davos, Switzerland, 2013年7月8-12日.
清木達也、佐藤正樹、富田博文、中島映至、2013: ゾンデ観測を用いた氷雲微物理モデリングの評価、日本気象学会2013年度秋季大会、仙台、2013.11.19-21.
清木達也、佐藤正樹2013: 均一氷晶核形成を通したCirrus に対する地形性重力波の影響、日本気象学会2013年度秋季大会、仙台、2013.11.19-21.(poster)
Tomita, H., 2013: Global cloud permitting model, ECMWF annual seminar on Recent developments in numerical methods for atmosphere and ocean modeling, September 2-5. (Invited)
Nasuno, T., T. Li, H. Miura, T. Miyakawa, and M. Satoh, 2014: Moistening processes before the convection onset of Madden-Julian Oscillation events during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO period, Workshop on Tropical Dynamics and the MJO, 14-16 January, 2014, Honolulu, USA.
Nasuno, T., M. Satoh, and H. Tomita, 2013: Overview of NICAM Development and Simulation Results, 6^th International OFES workshop and 3rd Computationally-Intensive Climate Modeling Workshop, 3-4 December, 2013, Honolulu, USA.
Nasuno, T, 2013: MJO events during CINDY2011/DYNAMO period, 2013 NICAM workshop, 29-30 August 2013, Honolulu, USA.
Nasuno, T., T. Li, H. Miura, T. Miyakawa, and M. Satoh, 2013: Moistening processes before the convection onset of Madden-Julian Oscillation events during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO period, AGU fall meeting 2013, San Francisco, USA (poster).

（ ii ）地球環境変動研究を支える統合的予測システムの開発

（a）様々な時空間スケールに対応するシームレス予測の基盤技術開発

＜論文発表＞

Hirahara, S., M. Ishii, and Y. Fukuda, 2014: Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. 27, 57-75, J. Climate. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1.
Han, W., G. A. Meehl, A. Hu, M. A. Alexander, T. Yamagata, D. Yuan, M. Ishii, P. Pegion, J. Zheng, B. D. Hamlington, X.-W. Quan, and R. R. Leben, 2013: Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1951-1.
Abraham, J. P., M. Baringer, N.L. Bindoff, T. Boyer, L.J. Cheng, J.A. Church, J.L. Conroy, C.M. Domingues, J.T. Fasullo, J. Gilson, G. Goni, S.A. Good, J. M. Gorman, V. Gouretski, M. Ishii, G.C. Johnson, S. Kizu, J.M. Lyman, A. M. Macdonald, W.J. Minkowycz, S.E. Moffitt, M.D. Palmer, A.R.Piola, F. Reseghetti, K. Schuckmann,K.E. Trenberth, I. Velicogna, J.K. Willis, 2013: A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change, Reviews of Geophysics, doi: 10.1002/rog.20022.

＜学会発表＞

Ishii, M. 2013: A plan for 100-year atmosphere-ocean analysis under the SOUSEI program. 6th ACRE workshop - Applications of Reanalysis Products. FFCUL/IDL, Campo Grande, Lisbon, Portugal, 18 – 20 November 2013.
Ishii, M., and Collaborators, 2013: A Japanese Project for Reconstruction of XBT Database. CLIVARGSOP Coordinated Quality-Control of Global Subsurface Ocean Climate Observations, Hobart, Australia, 12-14 June, 2013.
Ishii, M., M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, Y. Tanaka, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Seasonal-to-decadal prediction studies under the SOUSEI program. International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction – Toulouse, France – 13-16 May 2013.
野津雅人, 野沢徹, 石井正好, 西村照幸, 大越智幸司, 2013: 外部フォーシングの 20 世紀気候変動再現実験への影響, 日本気象学会秋季大会, 仙台国際センター, 仙台, 2013年11月20日..

（b）初期値・境界値の最適化技術、データ同化技術の開発

＜論文発表（受理・印刷済）＞

Tatebe, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Kimoto, and H. Hasumi, 2013: Control of decadal and bidecadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific by the off-equatorial South Pacific Ocean, Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00137.1.
Chikira, M., 2013: Eastward propagating intraseasonal oscillation represented by Chikira-Sugiyama cumulus parameterization. Part II: Understanding moisture variation under weak temperature gradient balance, J. Atmos. Sci. (in press)
Hamada, J.-I., S. Mori, H. Kubota, M. D. Yamanaka, U. Haryoko, S. Restari, R. Sulistyowati, and F.Syamsudin, 2012: Interannual Rainfall Variability over Northwestern Jawa and Its Relation to the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events, SOLA, 8, 69-72.

＜論文発表（投稿中）＞

Suzuki T. and M. Ishii, 2013: interdecadal baroclinic sea level changes in the North Pacific based on historical ocean hydrographic observations. J. Climate.

＜学会発表＞

Tatebe, H., M. Kurogi, T. Suzuki, Y. Tanaka, H. Hasumi, M. Kimoto, 2013: Roles of the oceanic SST fronts on the atmosphere represented by MIROC5 coupled with a nested regional ocean model in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence zone. 6th OFES international worshop, IPRC, 米国, 2013年12月3日.
Koyama, H., M. Ishii, H. Tatebe, T. Nishimura, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Assimilation of Surface Observations Using an Atmosphere-ocean Coupled EnKF, Sixth WMO Symposium on Data Assimilation, College Park, USA, 7-11 October, 2013.
小山博司, 石井正好, 建部洋晶, 西村照幸, 木本昌秀, 2013: MIROC アンサンブルデータ同化システムを用いた地表気圧・海面水温の同化実験. 日本気象学会2013 年度春季大会, 国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 2013年5月15-18日.