Theme A：Prediction and diagnosis of imminent global climate change

The coming global warming is unavoidable, and all segments of society are seeking ways to adapt to it. In an effort toward providing climate change risk information and contributing to building a society highly adaptive to climate change, this theme develops a climate prediction system that enables verification using observation data on various timescales and provides climate projection information with high reliability. We aim to improve the reliability of projections of future climate changes through analyzing major contributing factors, verifying hindcasts, and assessing the impacts of anthropogenic factors associated with past climate changes involving severe weather and extreme events. In addition, we attempt to reduce the uncertainty in climate projection due to physical processes controlling climate sensitivity through verification using observation data, which is a yardstick of climate system responsiveness to external forcing such as that caused by changes in concentration of carbon dioxide.