Theme B：Climate change projection contributing to stabilization target setting

　Uncertainty in the projection of carbon dioxide concentration, together with uncertainty concerning climate sensitivity, is a major obstacle to predicting the future climate. In this research theme, we are developing an earth system model that handles the environmental biogeochemical cycles including the carbon cycle and the nitrogen cycle as well as changes in land use. These are critical for more accurately predicting changes in the balance of carbon dioxide and changes in ecosystems and agriculture, etc. When developing our research, we study, from a scientific standpoint, the socio-economic scenarios that form the preconditions on which the projection experiment is premised. In studying targets for carbon dioxide, it is important to understand phenomena that may occur in the future but must be avoided as well as the impact of methods we could use to avoid them. This is why we work to create new scientific knowledge concerning the impact and effects of violent changes (tipping elements) which may arise when the degree of anthropogenic environmental changes exceed a certain threshold as well as methods to lower the average temperature of the earth artificially so as to suppress the damage due to warming (geoengineering).