Theme B:Climate change projection contributing to stabilization target setting

Representative: Michio Kawamiya
Director, Project Team for Risk Information on Climate Change, Strategic Research and Development Area, JAMSTEC

 Uncertainty in the projection of carbon dioxide concentration, together with uncertainty concerning climate sensitivity, is a major obstacle to predicting the future climate. In this research theme, we are developing an earth system model that handles the environmental biogeochemical cycles including the carbon cycle and the nitrogen cycle as well as changes in land use. These are critical for more accurately predicting changes in the balance of carbon dioxide and changes in ecosystems and agriculture, etc. When developing our research, we study, from a scientific standpoint, the socio-economic scenarios that form the preconditions on which the projection experiment is premised. In studying targets for carbon dioxide, it is important to understand phenomena that may occur in the future but must be avoided as well as the impact of methods we could use to avoid them. This is why we work to create new scientific knowledge concerning the impact and effects of violent changes (tipping elements) which may arise when the degree of anthropogenic environmental changes exceed a certain threshold as well as methods to lower the average temperature of the earth artificially so as to suppress the damage due to warming (geoengineering).

 Research subject
 Research Subject Sub-Research Subject Institutes & Representatives
Long-term global change projection based on diverse scenarios a Development of an earth system model dealing with variations of greenhouse gasses, land use change, etc. JAMSTEC
JAMSTEC Unit Leader Shingo Watanabe
Research Unit Leader
Shingo Watanabe
b Information gathering and examination on socio-economic scenarios toward
stabilization target setting
JAMSTEC JAMSTEC Unit Leader Kaoru Tachiiri
Deputy Research Unit Leader
Kaoru Tachiiri
c Integrated assesment on climate projection experiments and
socio-economic scenarios
CRIEPI CRIEPI Deputy Associate Vice President Jyunichi Tutui
Deputy Associate Vice President
Jyunichi Tutui
Obtaining scientific perceptions on large-scale variations and modifications of climate a Development of technologies for numerical investigations on tipping elements and irreversibility of environmental changes (ice sheet collapse, etc.) JAMSTEC
JAMSTEC Project Manager Michio Kawamiya
Michio Kawamiya
b Development of technologies for numerical investigations on geoengineering
(stratospheric aerosol injection, etc.)