Theme B：Climate change projection contributing to stabilization target setting

FY2013

FY2012

FY2013

（ i ） Long-term global change projection based on diverse scenarios

（a）Development of an earth system model dealing with variations of greenhouse gasses, land use change etc.

＜Publication＞

Lott, F., S. Denvil, N. Butchart, C. Cagnazzo, M. A. Giorgetta, S. C. Hardiman, E. Manzini, T. Krismer, J-P Duvel, P. Maury, J. F. Scinocca, S. Watanabe, and S. Yukimoto (2014): Rossby gravity wave packets in the lower stratosphere of some high-top CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2013JD020797, accepted.
Hajima, T., Tachiiri, K., Ito, A., Kawamiya, M., (accepted).: Uncertainty of Concentration - Terrestrial Carbon Feedback in Earth System Models, Journal of Climate.
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E.Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison, (2013).: Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century. Biogeosciences Discuss., 10, 18969–19004.
Vivek K. Arora, George J. Boer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael Eby , Chris D. Jones, James R. Christian, Gordon Bonan, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Patricia Cadule, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Tongwen Wu, (2013).: Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models. J. Climate, 26, 5289–5314.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00494.1
Chris Jones , Eddy Robertson, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Elena Shevliakova, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Etsushi Kato, Michio Kawamiya, Spencer Liddicoat, Keith Lindsay, Christian H. Reick, Caroline Roelandt, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra (2013).: 21st Century compatible CO2 emissions and airborne fraction simulated by CMIP5 Earth System models under 4 Representative Concentration Pathways. 26, 4398–4413., doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1
Ito, A., and L. Xu (2013): Response of acid mobilization of iron-containing mineral dust to improvement of air quality projected in the future, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 28173–28223, doi:10.5194/acpd-13-28173-2013.

＜Presentation（including poster）＞

Watanabe, S. et al. (2014): Vertical resolution dependence of gravity wave momentum flux simulated by a general circulation model, SPARC 2014 General Assembly, Queenstown NZ, January 2014.
HAJIMA TOMOHIRO, TACHIIRI KAORU, ITO AKIHIKO , KAWAMIYA MICHIO,: "CO₂-carbon feedback of terrestrial ecosystems in CMIP5 ESMs", Climate2013, Lawrence Barkley National Laboratory, California, US, March 21, 2013.
Ito, A., X. Li, and J. E. Penner: Role of acid mobilization in projected response of soluble iron supply to improvement of air quality in the future, Goldschmidt 2013, August 2013, Florence, Italy.
Ito, A., G. Lin, and J. E. Penner: Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Modeling of Organic Nitrogen Input to the Ocean, 2013 AGU Fall Meeting, December 2013, California, USA.

（b）Information gathering and examination on socio-economic scenarios toward stabilization target setting

＜Publication＞

Tachiiri, K., Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D. Huntingford, C., and Kawamiya, M. (2013): Allowable carbon emissions for medium to high mitigation scenarios, Tellus B, 65, 20586. doi: 10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.20586.
Matsumoto, K., K. Tachiiri, M. Kawamiya (submitted): Socioeconomic impact of achieving 4.5W/m² radiative forcing considering the uncertainties of earth system models, Clim. Chang.
J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves (submitted): A perspective on model-data temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum, submitted to QSR.

＜Presentation（including poster）＞

[Poster]Tachiiri, K., Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D. Huntingford, C., and Kawamiya, M., 2013: Temperature rise and allowable carbon emissions for medium mitigation scenario RCP4.5, 12th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, June 24-28, Jeju.
[Poster]Tachiiri, K., Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D. Huntingford, C., and Kawamiya, M., 2013: Allowable carbon emissions for medium to high mitigation scenarios, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Meeting, Oct 28-29, Tsukuba.
[Poster]Tachiiri, K., Hajima, T. and Kawamiya, M., 2013: Robustness of the proportionality of global mean temperature change to cumulative carbon emission, the 2013 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, GC31B-1048, Dec. 9-13, San Francisco.
Matsumoto, K., K. Tachiiri, M. Kawamiya (2013): Socioeconomic impacts to achieve a certain radiative forcing level considering uncertainties of ESMs, 2013 IAEE International Conference, Daegu, Korea, June 2013.
Matsumoto, K., K. Tachiiri, M. Kawamiya (2014): Evaluating different emission pathways for fixed CO2 emissions in the 21st century, 2014 IAEE International Conference, New York, USA, June 2014.

＜In Press/Published online ＞

Tachiiri, K., Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D., Huntingford, C. and Kawamiya, M: Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios, Tellus B, 65(0), 154, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2949.1, 2013
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou: Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Accepted for Climate of the Past.

（c）Integrated assesment on climate projection experiments and socio-economic science

＜Publication＞

Ohba, M., J. Tsutsui, and D. Nohara, 2014: Statistical parameterization expressing ENSO variability and reversibility in response to CO₂ concentration changes, J. Climate, 27, 398-410.
Nishizawa, K., 2013: Parameterization of aerosol radiative forcing in latitude zones for use in simple climate models, to be submitted to J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan.
Tsutsui, J., 201x: Parameter calibration for a simplified climate model to characterize atmosphere-ocean general circulation models（仮題、in preparation）

＜Presentation（including poster）＞

Nohara, D., et al., 2013: Climate restoration via zero emissions stabilization: Examination using earth system models, 2013 AGU Fall Meeting.
Ohba, M., J. Tsutsui, and D. Nohara, 2013: Reversibility of ENSO in Response to CO₂ Concentration Changes, 2013 AGU Fall Meeting.

（ ii ） Obtaining scientific perceptions on large-scale variations and modifications of climate

（a）Development of technologies for numerical investigations on tipping elements and irreversibility of environmental changes (ice sheet collapse etc.)

＜Publication＞

David McGuire and Coauthors, (in prep.): An retrospective assessment of the vulnerability of permafrost carbon in the earth system: Comparison of dynamics among process-based models.
Kazuyuki Saito, Tingjun Zhang, Daqing Yang, Sergei Marchenko, Roger G. Barry, Vladimir Romanovsky, and Larry Hinzman.: Influence of the physical terrestrial Arctic in the eco-climate system. Ecological Applications, December, Vol. 23, No. 8 : 1778-1797

＜book＞

Kawamiya M., et al: Earth System Modeling up to and beyond IPCC AR5, in preparation.

＜Presentation（including poster）＞

SAITO Fuyuki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kunio Takahashi: Sensitivity of Response of Greenland Ice Sheet to Global Warming on Surface Mass Balance and Initialization methods 第4回極域科学シンポジウム. 2013/11/15.
SAITO Fuyuki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kunio Takahashi: Sensitivity of Response of Greenland ice sheet to Global Warming on initialization (spin-up) methods 北大低温研共同利用研究集会「グリーンランド氷床の質量変化と全球気候変動への影響」. 2013/11/26.
SAITO Fuyuki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kunio Takahashi: Developement of numerical ice-sheet model IcIES and its application on Antarctic and Greenland Ice sheets 日本雪氷学会 2013/09/18.
Saito, K., T.Yamazaki, T. Ise, S. Miyazaki, H. Arakida, J. Mori, T.Hajima, M. Hosaka, Y. Iijima, A. Ito, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, R.O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, A. Sato, T. Sueyoshi, A. Sugimoto, R.Suzuki, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura, 2013: GRENE-TEA Model Intercomparison Project (GTMIP) stage 1, The Fourth Symposium on Polar Science, National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Tokyo, 12, November, 2013. (Poster)

（b）Development of technologies for numerical investigations on geoengineering (stratospheric aerosol injection etc.)

＜Publication＞

Berdahl, M., A. Robock, D. Ji, A. Jones, B. Kravitz, J. C. Moore, and S. Watanabe (2014),: Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD020627, accepted.
Jones, A., J. M. Haywood, K. Alterskjær, O. Boucher, J. N. S. Cole, C. L. Curry, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, B. Kravitz, J. E. Kristjánsson, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, A. Robock, H. Schmidt, B. Singh, S. Tilmes, S. Watanabe, and J.-H. Yoon: The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) (2013), J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50762.
Kravits, B., K. Caldeira, O. Boucher, A. Robock, P. J. Rasch, K. Alterskjaer, D. B. Karam, J. N. S. Cole, C. L. Curry, J. M. Haywood, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, A. Jones, J. E. Kristjansson, D. J. Lunt, J. Moore, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, M. Schulz, B. Singh, S. Tilmes, S. Watanabe, S. Yang, and J.-H. Yoon,: Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) (2013a), J. Geophys. Res., 118, 8320–8332, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50646.
Kravitz, B., P. J. Rasch, P. M. Forster, T. Andrews, J. N. S. Cole, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, J. E. Kristjánsson, J. C. Moore, H. Muri, U. Niemeier, A. Robock, B. Singh, S. Tilmes, S. Watanabe, and J.-H. Yoon (2013b): An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13087-13102, doi:10.1002/2013JD020502.
Kravitz, B., P. M. Forster, A. Jones, A. Robock, K. Alterskjær, O. Boucher, A. K. L. Jenkins, H. Korhonen, J. E. Kristjánsson, H. Muri, U. Niemeier, A.-I. Partanen, P. J. Rasch, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe: Sea spray geoengineering experiments in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): Experimental design and preliminary results (2013c), J. Geophys. Res., 118, 11175-11186, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50856.
Moore, J. C., A. Rinke, X. Yu, D. Ji, X. Cui, Y. Li, K. Alterskjær, J. E. Kristjánsson, O. Boucher, N. Huneuus, B. Kravitz, A. Robock, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, M. Schulz, S. Tilmes, and S. Watanabe (2014),: Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD021060, accepted.
Pitari, G., V. Aquila, B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Watanabe, N. De Luca, G. Di Genova, E. Mancini, and S. Tilmes: Stratospheric Ozone Response to Sulfate Geoengineering: Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) (2014), J.Geophys. Res., 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD020566, accepted.
Tilmes, S., J. Fasullo, J.-F. Lamarque, D. R. Marsch, M. Mills, K. Alterskjær, O. Boucher, J. N. S. Cole, C. L. Curry, J. M. Haywood, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, A. Jones, D. B. Karam, B. Kravitz, J. E. Kristjánsson, J. C. Moore, H. O. Muri, U. Niemeier, P. J. Rasch, A. Robock, H. Schmidt, M. Schulz, B. Singh, S. Watanabe, S. Yang, and J.-H. Yoon (2013),: The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), J. Geophys. Res., 118, 11036-11058, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50868.